Emmy is in for an eventful night. The 69th Primetime Emmy Awards have more than enough suspense to go around for even a casual television or streaming content viewer. Throw in Stephen Colbert as your host, the uncontrollable fingers of a sitting president and it could be more memorable than anyone could have imagined.
At the crux of this year’s Emmy Awards is who will or won’t dominate the drama series categories. “The Handmaid’s Tale” is a critical triumph and earned 13 nominations putting Hulu on the awards season map. “Stranger Things” won key honors from the PGA and SAG this past January and scored 18 nods of its own (tied for third most for any series). The program that tied for the most nods, “Westworld,” seems to be an after thought despite 22 individual nominations. Will it really get shut out of every major category? And what about NBC’s ratings phenomenon “This Is Us”? It has just 11 nods (still damn impressive) and is a major dark horse to upend the Outstanding Drama Series race. And then there’s Netflix’s other drama player, “The Crown,” with 13 nods in almost every major Prime Time Emmy category. Will that period prestige player really go home empty handed? (Y’all forgot how much the Television Academy loved “Downton Abbey” didn’t you.)
And those aren’t the only nail biters. Will “Atlanta” or “Veep” win Outstanding Comedy Series? Will “Big Little Lies” leave “Feud: Bette and Joan” in the dust or is it in for a surprising jolt? Will “Full Frontal with Samantha Bee” upset “Saturday Night Live” or “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” anywhere? Will “RuPaul’s Drag Race” win Outstanding Reality Competition series almost nine years after its first season debuted?
Taking that all into account, here are my final predictions.
Place your bets wisely.
Outstanding Drama Series
“House of Cards” (Netflix)
“Better Call Saul” (AMC)
“The Crown” (Netflix)
“The Handmaid’s Tale” (Hulu)
“This Is Us” (NBC)
“Westworld” (HBO)
“Stranger Things” (Netflix)
Who should win: “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Upset: “This Is Us”
Who win win: “Stranger Things”
Lowdown: This is an incredibly tough pick. My mind and heart says “Handmaid’s,” but my gut says “Stranger.” Moreover, there are a number of scenarios where “This Is Us” or even – gasp – “House of Cards” could find a way to upset the top two contenders. In fact, besides “Better Call Saul” you can formulate a voting outcome where six of the seven nominees take home Emmy’s biggest prize. This one is gonna be a nail biter.
Outstanding Comedy Series
“Veep” (HBO)
“Atlanta” (FX)
“Black-ish” (ABC)
“Master of None” (Netflix)
“Modern Family” (ABC)
“Silicon Valley” (HBO)
“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt” (Netflix)
Who should win: “Atlanta” or “Veep”
Upset: None
Who win win: “Veep”
Lowdown: Listen, Donald Glover‘s critically acclaimed masterpiece deserves to win, but in this bizarre political environment you could argue so does “Veep.” The safe money is on HBO’s mainstay to repeat, but if “Atlanta” wins it means Emmy voters really are paying attention.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series
Claire Foy (“The Crown”)
Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”)
Robin Wright (“House of Cards”)
Evan Rachel Wood (“Westworld”)
Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”)
Keri Russell (“The Americans”)
Who should win: Elisabeth Moss
Upset: Claire Foy or Evan Rachel Wood
Who win win: Elisabeth Moss
Lowdown: If Moss can’t win with her eighth acting nomination for this masterwork I’m not sure she ever will (worth noting she’s also nominated as a producer for “Handmaid’s”). If Foy or Wood upset it’s a sign that “Handmaid’s” is in trouble for the top prize (and likely enough voters didn’t watch the Hulu breakout).
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series
Sterling K. Brown (“This Is Us”)
Anthony Hopkins (“Westworld”)
Bob Odenkirk (“Better Call Saul”)
Matthew Rhys (“The Americans”)
Liev Schreiber (“Ray Donovan”)
Milo Ventimiglia (“This Is Us”)
Who should win: Sterling K. Brown or Bob Odenkirk
Upset: Bob Odenkirk
Who win win: Sterling K. Brown
Lowdown: If Television Academy members are going to be able to reward “This Is Us” anywhere its with Brown winning this category. Odenkirk will get a lot of love, but its hard to see Brown losing here.
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Ellie Kemper (“Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt”)
Allison Janney (“Mom”)
Julia Louis-Dreyfus (“Veep”)
Tracee Ellis Ross (“Black-ish”)
Lily Tomlin (“Grace and Frankie”)
Jane Fonda (“Grace and Frankie”)
Pamela Aldon (“Better Things”)
Who should win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Upset: Pamela Aldon or Allison Janney
Who win win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus
Lowdown: Yes, she’s already won for “Veep” in this category five times, but it doesn’t diminish the fact how incredible she continues to be as the self-centered former President Selina Meyer. Louis-Dreyfus is highly favored here, but if she loses its because two other Emmy favorites, Aldon ( one win, six nods) or Janney (two wins for playing the same character in the Supporting Actress category), split the vote enough to sneak through.
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent”)
Aziz Ansari (Master of None)
Donald Glover (Atlanta)
Anthony Anderson (Black-ish)
William H. Macy (Shameless)
Zach Galifianakis (Baskets)
Who should win: Donald Glover or Jeffrey Tambor
Upset: Aziz Ansari
Who win win: Donald Glover
Lowdown: This is another early category to watch. If Glover loses it may be a sign “Atlanta” might not take the Comedy Series crown. If Ansari wins everyone has to realize Netflix’s influence on the Academy may have actually surpassed HBO’s this year (nomination count be dammed).
Outstanding Limited Series
“Big Little Lies” (HBO)
“Feud: Bette and Joan” (FX)
“Genius” (National Geographic)
“The Night Of” (HBO)
“Fargo” (FX)
“Genius” (National Geographic)
Who should win: “Feud: Bette and Joan” (not sorry)
Upset: “Feud: Bette and Joan”
Who win win: “Big Little Lies”
Lowdown: Fill your chardonnay glasses and get ready to celebrate on your cedar wood decks as the sun sets over the pacific. (Wait, did someone forget to tell the nanny we’re gonna be late again?)