As awards season settles into its extended 2021 schedule the one organization there is no cure for, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, are ready for their spotlight. Yes, the Golden Globe Awards will reveal their nominees on Wednesday morning and, as usual, every studio, network, and streamer is quaking in their boots. Pandemic, shandemic, it’s the same old racket.
Every year, Hollywood spends thousands of dollars with consultants who quiz the HFPA members about what they like and what they don’t for months on end. Unlike traditional AMPAS polling, dealing with the HFPA should be more accurate because there are only 85 or so members to harass. Start your conspiracy theories because this year has been harder to gauge than ever because of no in-person events. Listen, all media are a gossipy sort, but the HFPA thrives on it to arrive at a consensus on all manner of topics as much as possible. Receptions, screenings, press conferences, etc. are all outlets for this to occur. Needless to say, that doesn’t work in a zoom driven campaign. Moreso, the members have verbally expressed their frustration over it. How do you know who to vote for if you don’t know who everyone else is voting for?
We kid. Sorta.
In any event, as wide open as this year’s globes categories appear, there are some things that seem consistent across the board. First off, the members love “The Trial of the Chicago 7” but they don’t love it enough to go overboard and embarrass themselves (then again, they just might!). They appreciate “News of the World” more than other critic groups including long-time favorites Tom Hanks and director Paul Greengrass. They may appreciate “The United States vs. Billie Holiday’s” Andra Day more than many expect, but it’s unclear if she can garner enough support to crack the Best Actress in a Drama Field. They adore “Hamilton” and are obsessed with Lin Manuel-Miranda even though you and I know it’s just a very good filmed version of the Broadway stage production (where’s the lie?).
Splits may also appear to be a key trend this time around. For example, “Promising Young Woman’s” Emerald Fennell could land Screenplay, but not Director. Regina King could land a Directing nod, but “One Night in Miami” might not earn a Screenplay nod (same with Chloe Zhao and “Nomadland”). Their goal is to spread the wealth and not have one studio or streamer (cough, Netflix), dominate the proceedings. Whether they can pull that off without being able to figure out how to use group chat, however, remains to be seen.
Keeping all this in mind, here are some semi-educated predictions for the film categories for this year’s Golden Globes. The TV categories? Are you crazy? You’d need a real psychic to even come close to predicting those with this bunch.
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Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Nomadland”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“News of The World”
“One Night in Miami”
Maybe: “The Father,” “Promising Young Woman,” “Da 5 Bloods,” “Sound of Metal,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “The United States vs. Billie Holliday”
Lowdown: Word is the HFPA are not fans of “Da 5 Bloods,” so keep that in mind overall. Also, “Judas” supposedly arrived too late to crack this category, but should impact with the acting ones. “The Father” is a wildcard and could snatch the nod from “One Night in Miami.”
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“The Prom”
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
“On the Rocks”
“Palm Springs”
“Hamilton”
Maybe: “Music,” “Let Them All Talk,” “Emma”
Lowdown: There is a rumor they loved the Sia directed musical “Music,” but we’re not convinced they are dumb enough to include it here. Maybe.
Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language
“Another Round”
“Minari”
“Dear Comrades”
“The Life Ahead”
“La Llorona”
Maybe: “I’m No Longer Here,” “Night of the Kings”
Lowdown: We’d be surprised if both Netflix titles get in, but “No Longer Here” could make it over “La Llorona” or “Life Ahead.”
Best Motion Picture – Animated
“Soul”
“Onward”
“Trolls: World Tour”
“Wolfwalkers”
“Over the Moon”
Maybe: “A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon,” “The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge on the Run,” “The Willoughbys”
Lowdown: Maybe “Farmageddon” cracks the five, but that’s about it for spoilers.
Best Director – Motion Picture
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Regina King, “One Night in Miami”
Paul Greengrass, “News of the World”
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Aaron Sorkin, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Maybe: David Fincher, “Mank,” Emerald Ferrell, “Promising Young Woman,” Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods,” Shaka King, “Judas and the Black Messiah,” Florian Zeller, “The Father”
Lowdown: Fincher and Zeller are the two likeliest to crash the party and that would knock out Chung and/or King.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
LaKeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah,”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Tom Hanks, “News of the World”
Maybe: Gary Oldman, “Mank,” Eddie Redmayne, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Lowdown: Beyond some out of the blue selection of Justin Timberlake for “Palmer” or Tahar Rahim for “The Mauritanian,” that should be your five. That being said, Mads Mikkelsen deserves a nod for “Another Round” here and it’s so not happening.
Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Sacha Baron Cohen, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Andy Samberg, “Palm Springs”
James Corden, “The Prom”
Lin-Manuel Miranda, “Hamilton”
Dev Patel, “The Personal History of David Copperfield”
Maybe: Pete Davidson, “The King of Staten Island”
Lowdown: Perhaps the easiest category to predict this year.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Zendaya, “Malcolm & Marie”
Maybe: Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman,” Robin Wright, “Land,” Sophia Loren, “The Life Ahead”
Lowdown: We’re taking a chance with Day, but if not her then Kirby or Loren.
Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
Meryl Streep, “The Prom”
Meryl Streep, “Let Them All Talk”
Michelle Pfeiffer, “French Exit”
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Rashida Jones, “On The Rocks”
Maybe: Ana Taylor-Joy, “Emma,” Christin Milioti, “Palm Springs,” Kristen Stewart, “Happiest Season,” Rosamund Pike, “I Care A Lot”
Lowdown: Maybe Jones takes one of Streep’s slots, but you know they want to nominate her twice in the same category if they can.
Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom, Jr., “One Night in Miami”
Bill Murray, “On the Rocks”
Maybe: Kingsley Ben-Adir, “One Night in Miami,” Stanley Tucci, “Supernova,” Frank Langella, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” ” Colman Domingo, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” Andrew Rannells, “The Prom,” Mark Rylance, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Lowdown: Word is they love Murray who did a press conference (always important!) and don’t want to nominate two from “Chicago 7.” Raci, Cohen, and Kaluuya are likely the only locks.
Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Ellen Burstyn, “Pieces of a Woman”
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Helena Zengel, “News of the World”
Maybe: Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian,” Candice Bergen, “Let Them Talk,” Nicole Kidman, “The Prom”
Lowdown: Colman and Seyfried are the only safe bets here. The rest? Flip ’em.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Minari”
“The Father”
“Promising Young Woman”
Maybe: “Nomadland,” “One Night in Miami,” “News of the World,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Soul,” “Mank”
Lowdown: “Minari” is sadly on the precipice of elimination in this category.
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
“The Life Ahead”
“Soul”
“News of the World”
“One Night in Miami”
“Minari”
Maybe: “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Tenet,” “Mank,” “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Lowdown: Pick ’em.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
“Io Si (Seen),” “The Life Ahead”
“Speak Now,” “One Night in Miami”
“Loyal Brave True,” “Mulan,”
“Just Sing,” “Trolls: World Tour”
“Rocket to the Moon,” “Over the Moon”
Maybe: “Hear My Voice,” “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” “Fight For You,” “Judas and the Black Messiah,” “Free,” “The One and Only Ivan,” “Wear Your Crown,” “The Prom,” “Carried Me With You,” “Onward,”
Lowdown: You know they want to nominate three-time nominee Taylor Swift again if they can. Unfortunately, they can’t because they don’t consider songs in documentaries for this category.
The 2021 Golden Globe Award nominations will be announced bright and early Wednesday, February 3. Look for complete coverage on The Playlist.