The opening day reviews have been rapturous and the early box office strong. From an awards perspective, that’s exactly what Greta Gerwig’s “Little Women” needed. In fact, its Oscar hopes may hinge on it.
The Sony Pictures release kicked off its campaign with strong initial screenings at the end of October. Many, including this pundit, thought it was more than a likely Best Picture nominee. Adapted Screenplay was a given and stars Saorise Ronan and Florence Pugh were pretty safe acting nominees in the Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress fields, respectively. Shoot, Pugh’s performance was so impressive you could have argued she was the frontrunner in her category. And then after six weeks of screenings. (significantly more than fellow contender “1917”), December arrived. And it did not bring good tidings.
As the major critics’ groups announced their year-end honors “Little Women” was barely mentioned. Sure, Laura Dern won an honor including her work in “Marriage Story” and it landed on AFI’s Top 10 list. Dominating the Boston Society of Film Critics year-end honors was sweet (the film takes place in Massachusetts), but that was about it take a random local honor here or there. And, frankly, neither Sony nor the “Little Women’s” awards team probably gave it a second thought. Then, the mercurial HFPA basically snubbed it with just nods for composer Alexandre Desplat’s original score and Ronan (who has been nominated four times previously and won for “Lady Bird”). But, hey, it’s the HFPA, who cares, right? But then the SAG Awards arrived and arrived with a thud. Nothing. Nada. Not even for Pugh who was assumed as a given.
Then the chatter started that men don’t want to see the movie. They “don’t think it’s for them.” Sorta odd considering how much the guilds and Academy went nuts over “Lady Bird.” Perhaps it was the period aspect. Maybe the fact it’s yet another adaptation of Louisa May Alcott’s novel. Yet, that’s the reasoning at the moment. The good news for “Little Women” fans is that the pushback has been a roar.
The film initially had very strong reviews following its October “reveal,” but now is at a stellar 91 on Metacritic and a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes. It plays and with audiences too. After two days in release, “Little Women” has earned a fantastic $12 million and should be at $35-40 million by New Year’s Day. It’s a hit. And online, influential members of the Academy are starting to rave about it. So, Sony can breathe. The hot takes about A, B or C can take a rest. It’s getting nominated. The Academy isn’t stupid.
(Wait, don’t answer that…)
As of Dec. 27, 2019
1. “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
There’s only one movie that has earned guild recognition from every guild so far. Guess which one it is.
2. “The Irishman”
You win in phase one. Did Netflix’s massive push make it the champ already? The nods may tell the tale.
3. “Parasite”
The SAG ensemble nomination was a shock. If Song Kang-ho gets an acting nomination history may be in the works.
4. “Marriage Story”
Still in the mix, just a step behind the top three.
5. “Jojo Rabbit”
If Taika Waititi earns a Directing nod this could become the surprise, consensus no. 2 pick that no one took seriously.
6. “1917”
Throwing in the “don’t open your films in December” if you want to win rule. It’s gaining momentum, but it might be a little too late.
7. “Little Women”
There is enough passion. That should get it in.
8. “The Farewell”
Sundance’s only hope for a Best Picture nod this year.
9. “Joker”
Could be the biggest surprise of Oscar nomination morning. Best Director nominee Todd Phillips, anyone?
10. “Ford v. Ferrari”
Still slightly surprised by the disconnect with this one and why it’s borderline at this point. Do (did) Christian Bale and Matt Damon need to campaign more? Did the box office need to be over-the-moon instead of a nice double for 20th Century Fox and Disney?
11. “Bombshell”
If only it opened in October. A genuine strategic mistake. The SAG love for all three actresses shows it might have enough love to surprise, however.
12. “Pain & Glory”
There is a strong fanbase in The Academy for this movie. Not sure how Sony Classics could have pulled it off considering Pedro Almodovar doesn’t like to campaign for months on end and Antonio Banderas was working in Spain.
13. “The Two Popes”
Have we mentioned no studio had had three Best Picture nominees over 50 years? We might have. Maybe.