Greetings from back in Los Angeles where the 2020 Sundance Film Festival will soon be forgotten and people are, logically, paying more attention to the Impeachment hearings instead of the Oscars. You know there was an Oscar Luncheon on Monday, right? You could barely tell on social media this year. And it wasn’t like they didn’t get a good turnout. Brad Pitt, Charlize Theron, Taika Watiti, Bong Joon Ho, Robert De Niro, Quentin Tarantino, Florence Pugh and Leonardo Di Caprio were all there. There were cute photos. The class photo shot is sweet. Still, it felt lost. Even taking into account half the town either being in the confines of Park City or on their way back to LA.
READ MORE: Oscars 2020: “Joker” leads all films with 11 nominations
With voting now officially underway and lasting until just Tuesday, there isn’t much time left to truly influence voters (although some members I’ve spoken too are still going back and forth on their picks). And that means the primary questions are about whether “1917” will really go all the way and if, in a year where the acting categories seem locked up, if there are any real upsets to be found.
“1917,” “Parasite” or…a surprise for Best Picture?
History tells us that if you win the PGA and you win the DGA you probably are winning Best Picture. In theory, that’s great news for “1917,“ but this is where things get tricky. In 2017, “La La Land” won both the PGA and the DGA, but “Moonlight” won Best Picture. Fast forward three years later and “Parasite” has won the SAG Ensemble. Curiously, neither film has any individual acting awards (a very, very rare situation for a Best Picture winner), but “1917” also didn’t land one SAG nomination let alone an ensemble nomination. The fact “Parasite” actually won ensemble is a massive show of actor support. Will that guild love translate to the AMPAS branch? The largest in the Academy? Or, is there another film in the wings that we’re missing? There is one other contender that has over-performed in the guild honors so far this year (to some) and that’s “Jojo Rabbit.” Could it be the dark horse that shocks the world? Remember, it’s the films members love the most that usually win or come close to. At this point, it appears as though it’s those three films with “1917” one step ahead. At least until we hear what the BAFTAs and WGA Awards have to say this weekend.
Where are the upsets…if any?
Our kingdom for an upset! We’ll take anyone! Really! At this point, every actor’s race seems preordained. The writing categories are likely set. Production Design, Visual Effects, Cinematography, Sound Editing/Mixing all seem easy pickings. Costumes? OK, maybe “Little Women” doesn’t take it and “Jojo Rabbit” or “Joker” surprise? Documentary? Are Elton John, Bernie Taupin and “Rocketman” winning in Original Song an “upset”? Maybe score? Is there even an upset in Documentary? Does anyone think the Academy is really not going to vote for “Toy Story 4”? Can Bong Joon Ho upset in Director? To be frank, that’s a massive long shot after Sam Mendes won the DGA Award (the only time it hasn’t lined up this century was Rob Marshall in 2003 and in 2013 when DGA winner Ben Affleck wasn’t nominated). There will be genuine curiosity when Best Picture is announced, but anywhere else? At this point, we’re painfully skeptical.
Maybe Oscar really will spread the love
Barring any acting upsets and “1917” not taking key creative arts honors, the number of films with multiple nominations that will go home without a win could be considerably small, but two of them are two high profile Best Picture contenders: “The Irishman” and “Jojo Rabbit.” The former has hope in Adapted Screenplay and Visual Effects. The latter is hoping for Costumes or, also, Adapted Screenplay. “Ford v. Ferrari” could also miss out although we’re picking it for Editing at this point. “The Two Popes,” “Pain and Glory” and “Harriet” will also strike out across the board. So, maybe five, maybe six? Misery will certainly have company, that’s for sure.
Campaigns update their messaging for phase 2
Obviously, overall this is the shortest Oscar season in memory, but there’s barely even a phase 2 to talk about. That being said, a number of studios have tweaked their campaigns to remind members what’s at stake. Netflix changed their ads and outdoor for “The Irishman” to focus on the more emotional aspects of the film (lots of hugging) and released the original table read before they financed the picture.
Sony Pictures’ campaign is the venerable “Because You Love Movies” which has been used in some iteration or another for decades. The studio also bought airtime on local broadcast networks for a 30 min TV program, “A Love Letter to Making Movies” about the one-time Best Picture frontrunner. That is a very rare and pricey move. You can watch it on YouTube below.
Searchlight also went in a striking new direction for “Jojo Rabbit” which you could argue might have worked in December too.
Could this be the lowest-rated Oscars ever?
The Grammys already hit a historic low down 7% from 2019 on Sunday despite performances and wins from the hotter than hot Billie Eilish and Lizzo. Oh, and Ariana Grande turned it out too. Ah, yes, the Golden Globes hit an eight-year low earlier this month and as much as we dislike him we’re not sure you can really blame that on host Ricky Gervais. With no host to promote the telecast around, no Beyonce, Lady Gaga or Queen performance to hype things feel, well, slightly dire. Sure, there is one massive blockbuster to promote in “Joker,” but that may not drive people to watch like “Black Panther” may have. That Marvel Studios phenomenon won the SAG Ensemble honor with many inferring it could upset for Best Picture. We’re actually starting to believe this earlier date simply isn’t giving ABC and The Academy the time they need to truly promote the product, host or no host.
Voting for the 2020 Academy Awards ends on Tuesday, Feb. 2 at 5 PM PT.