“The Florida Project”
Studio: A24
Easiest Pick: Best Supporting Actor (Willem Dafoe)
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Director (Sean Baker)
Festival première: Cannes
Release date: Oct. 6 (limited)
What to look for: A24 has another contender on its slate, Greta Gerwig‘s “Lady Bird,” and in a perfect world “The Florida Project” would be a slam dunk Oscar play. Arguably the best movie to screen at some capacity at Cannes (why it wasn’t In Competition is head scratching), Baker’s follow up to “Tangerine” has a social message, a transformative performance (Dafoe), and a heartbreaking ending. The one consistent rule to earning a Best Picture nod is to give the membership an emotional experience. If A24 can position ‘Florida’ correctly (i.e., it’s more than a small indie) it could garner enough support to make the cut. If ‘Florida’ finds a way to break out of the media deluge from TIFF, it’ll help tremendously.
“Last Flag Flying”
Studio: Amazon Studios and Lionsgate
Easiest Pick: Best Actor (Bryan Cranston)
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Director (Richard Linklater)
Festival premiere: New York Film Festival
Release date: Nov. 3
What to look for: Linklater’s latest appears to be a road trip dramedy with some fine actors in the mix (Cranston, Steve Carell, Laurence Fishburne). Is it anything more than that? The opening night films at the NYFF have been hit or miss lately, but we’re hoping this one is the exception.
“The Greatest Showman”
Studio: 20th Century Fox
Easiest Pick: Best Supporting Actress (Keala Settle), Best Original Song
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Best Director (Michael Gracey), Best Actor (Hugh Jackman)
Festival première: None at this time, but potential AFI Fest
Release date: Dec. 25
What to look for: A first time director for an original period movie musical about the origins of P.T. Barnum. That’s the scary lowdown for ‘Showman.’ The positive is that Oscar winner Bill Condon (“Chicago,” “Dreamgirls”) rewrote the script, and the songs are by “La La Land” Oscar and Tony Award winning team Benj Pasek and Justin Paul (aka Pasek and Paul). Having heard a number of the songs at CinemaCon I can tell you that the duo will absolutely find themselves invited to the Dolby Theater for a second year in a row. But as for the movie itself? We’re hoping Jackman has been working out a lot lately because it might be a lot to carry on his shoulders.
“All The Money in the World”
Studio: Sony Pictures
Easiest Pick: You got me.
Toughest Battles: All of them?
Festival première: None at this time, but potential AFI Fest
Release date: Dec. 8
What to look for: This is one of the two major wild cards this season. Both Clint Eastwood and Ridley Scott are racing to the year-end deadline with two potential contenders. Eastwood’s drama about the three off duty American soldiers who stopped a terrorist attack on a French train seems more like a broad commercial play (the soldiers are playing themselves), but Scott’s true-story drama on the Getty kidnapping would seem like prime Oscar bait. A cast that includes Kevin Spacey, Mark Whalbeg, Michelle Williams and Timothy Hutton (two Academy Award winners, two nominees) would put it on any “contenders” list. Similarly to “The Big Short” two years ago, ‘All the Money’ was not expected on the release calendar and is in many ways a very unknown quantity. Scott has been incredibly prolific the last decade, but is this a return to greatness or a rush that doesn’t add up to much like “The Counselor”?
“Breathe”
Studio: Bleecker Street
Easiest Pick: Best Actor (Andrew Garfield), Best Actress (Claire Foy), Best Cinematography (Robert Richardson)
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Best Director (Andy Serkis)
Festival première: Toronto
Release date: Oct. 13
What to look for: Word is Foy and Garfield are superb, but the movie is what you’d expect. That being said, Bleecker Street and their marketing team have been doubted before and still come up with major nominations for Bryan Cranston (“Trumbo”) and Viggo Mortensen (“Captain Fantastic”). This is one film whose true fate might not be determined until it screens for Academy members in LA or when their screener finally arrives.
“The Papers”
Studio: 20th Century Fox
Easiest Pick: Best Actress (Meryl Streep), Supporting Actor (Tom Hanks), Best Picture, Best Director (Steven Spielberg)
Toughest Battles: None?
Festival première: None at this time, but potential AFI Fest
Release date: Dec. 22 (limited)
What to look for: Speilberg is racing to get this one across the finish line, but the story of The Pentagon Papers could not be more timely. Through in Streep, Hanks, Sarah Paulson, Carrie Coon, Jesse Plemons, Bob Odenkirk and Michael Stuhlbarg, among others and at the absolute worst you have a major SAG ensemble play. A movie released in December has not won Best Picture since 2005. Could this be the one?
“The Current War”
Studio: The Weinstein Company
Easiest Pick: Best Actor (Benedict Cumberbatch)
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Best Director (Alfonso Gomez-Rejon)
Festival première: Toronto
Release date: Nov. 24 (limited)
What to look for: Alfonso Gomez-Rejon follows up the somehow underrated “Me and Earl and the Dying Girl” with a period drama about the race between Thomas Edison (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Westinghouse (Michael Shannon) to create a workable electric system. The cast also features Nicholas Hoult, Katherine Waterston and everyone’s friendly neighborhood Tom Holland. Harvey Weinstein recently pushed “Mary Magdalene” to spring, so at the moment, “The Current War” is the only major Oscar player outside some potential opportunities for “Wind River” that he’s got. Weinstein is one of the few players who still believes you can premiere solo out of Toronto, and he’s had major success recently with “Silver Linings Playbook” and last year’s nominee “Lion.” While it’s debuting in limited release in November, Harvey has also slotted it for wide release the weekend after the Golden Globes which means he’s expecting a ton of nominations and the possibility of winning something to help expand it. It’s also important to take any Toronto reactions for Harvey’s players with the proper perspective. “Lion,” “Philomena” (which has premiered at Venice) and “The Imitation Game” (which earned polite feedback at Telluride) all earned positive, but hardly overly enthusiastic reactions at TIFF only to lock nominations months later.
“Blade Runner 2049”
Studio: Warner Bros.
Easiest Pick: Director (Denis Villeneuve), Best Cinematography (Roger Deakins), Best Production Design
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Best Actor (Ryan Gosling)
Festival première: None at this time
Release date: Oct. 6
What to look for: Is it an artistic achievement in the vein of Ridley Scott’s 1982 classic? Or is it an impressive homage to a legendary sci-fi thriller that’s much more of a commercial play? No festival screenings isn’t a good sign, but the studio insists its finishing down to the wire. In all honesty, it’s one of the biggest critical and commercial question marks of the season.
“Roman Israel, Esq.”
Studio: Sony Pictures
Easiest Pick: Best Actor (Denzel Washington)
Toughest Battles: Best Picture, Best Director (Dan Gilroy)
Festival première: None at this time
Release date: Nov. 3
What to look for: At publication there’s no trailer. There’s not even an official still yet, but the word is Denzel Washington delivers another awards-worthy performance in Gilroy’s directorial follow up to “Nightcrawler.” The film currently isn’t booked for any film festival (it’s not even clear it’s screened for any) and can’t even debut at AFI based on its release date. Could it sneak at NYFF? There’s time, but Sony Pictures may just let it make a statement the old fashioned way, in theaters.
Look for complete coverage from the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals beginning next week on The Playlist.