As we ponder the Hollywood Foreign Press Association‘s potential votes for the illustrious Golden Globes let us not forget there are three, um, golden rules to follow when predicting the winners.
Shape of Water, The Crown and The Post lead 2018 Golden Globe Nominations
First, they don’t like to be wrong when it comes to film winners. HFPA members do not like the idea of selecting a film, director or actor and then having their selections losing the eventual Oscar. Granted, half their acting and picture winners will lose, but they like the false impression that the Golden Globes are a true precursor to the Academy Awards. In truth, they are anything but. The 83 members simply provide the studios with a major publicity tool before nomination voting ends (at least the past two years when the show occurred before the voting deadline).
Best and Worst of the 2018 Golden Globe Nominations
Second, they like to “anoint” the next big thing or actor/actress, but it’s almost always in the television categories. It’s far less common in the film awards as you’d like to think.
Third, in theory they like to spread the wealth. When you have multiple studios, streaming services and networks throwing huge parties after the show in the same building as the Globes (the Beverly Hilton) it can feel rude to not give them at least one winner to celebrate with. This may be much less of an issue with The Weinstein Company and NBCUniversal no longer in the mix, but it’s always in the back of their minds.
More importantly, take a deep breath after watching the telecast on Sunday night. Yes, the HFPA often end up picking Oscar’s Best Picture winner in either of their two categories (Best Picture – Drama or Best Picture – Musical or Comedy), but this century they have only gotten it right 50% of the time. They missed out in 2006, 2005-2008, 2010-2011, 2015-2016. So, is it possible “Get Out” and “The Post” win on Oscar Sunday? Absolutely. Will they have a good night at the Globes? Probably not.
Keeping that all in mind, here are some predictions based on actual reporting and not just educated guesses (O.K., maybe the TV ones are educated, but the film ones are not).
Best Motion Picture – Drama
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Dunkirk”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
Who will win: “Three Billboards”
Who should win: “Call Me By Your Name”
Upset: “Shape of Water”
Lowdown: It’s either going to be “Three Billboards” or “Shape of Water.” The former is more likely with del Toro then taking Director (more on that later). It’s extremely unlikely that “Dunkirk” or “The Post” will win.
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
“The Disaster Artist”
“Get Out”
“The Greatest Showman”
“Lady Bird”
“I, Tonya”
Who will win: “Lady Bird”
Who should win: “Get Out”
Upset: “Get Out”
Lowdown: “Lady Bird” is likely to win this and that means there’s also a very good chance “Get Out” may come away from the Globes without any wins at all. That is not going to make twitter very happy.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama
Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Michelle Williams, “All The Money In The World”
Who will win: Frances McDormand
Who should win: Frances McDormand
Upset: Sally Hawkins or Meryl Streep
Lowdown: Meryl Streep has a slim shot at winning here, but the HFPA passed over the deserved McDormand twice. Fox Searchlight worked hard to convince her to do a press conference for them and the HFPA know it. That should seal the deal.