Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
Tom Hanks, “The Post”
Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
Denzel Washington, “Roman J. Israel”
Who will win: Gary Oldman
Who should win: Gary Oldman
Upset: Timothée Chalamet
Lowdown: Chalamet has a puncher’s chance but don’t read into the “anointing” thing too much. Oldman may have said negative things about the organization in the past, but he’s your likely Oscar winner and “Darkest Hour” is now a hit. Plus, it doesn’t hurt Focus Features is still having a party this year after parent company NBCUniversal pulled out.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Judi Dench, “Victoria & Abdul”
Helen Mirren, “The Leisure Seeker”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Emma Stone, “Battle of the Sexes”
Who will win: Saoirse Ronan
Who should win: Margot Robbie
Upset: Judi Dench
Lowdown: Dench would have had a shot to take this if she was attending, but she is not (she doesn’t enjoy the flight to LA). Instead, look for Ronan to win her first Globe on her third try.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Comedy or Musical
Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Hugh Jackman, “The Greatest Showman”
Ansel Elgort, “Baby Driver”
Who will win: James Franco
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Upset: Steve Carell or Hugh Jackman
Lowdown: This is a much more interesting category. In theory it’s Franco’s to loose, but the HFPA have a lot of love for Carell and Jackman. Moreover, this could be the one category where they recognize “Get Out” by giving Kaluuya the win. Maybe.
Best Supporting Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Hong Chau, “Downsizing”
Who will win: Laurie Metcalf
Who should win: Laurie Metcalf
Upset: Allison Janney
Lowdown: As much as the HFPA love Janney, it would simply be shocking to see anyone but Metcalf win here. BAFTA aside, she’s likely going to win every Supporting Actress honor from here on out.
Best Supporting Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama, Musical or Comedy
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Armie Hammer, “Call Me by Your Name”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All the Money in the World”
Who will win: Christopher Plummer
Who should win: Willem Dafoe
Upset: Sam Rockwell
Lowdown: The safe bet is Dafoe or Rockwell, but the HFPA love an upset in the mix and Plummer is good enough in “All The Money In The World” to justify the win. It’s also just too good a storyline for the organization to miss out on. They love the idea of being part of “history.”