We’re here! It’s hard to believe, but an awards season that was smack dab in the middle of the birth of the #MeToo movement and experienced the rise and fall of a number of prominent careers is about to head into the home stretch. The nominations for the 90th Academy Awards will be announced on Tuesday, January 23rd, a rare year when they are revealed after the PGA and SAG Awards have already been handed out.
READ MORE: Jordan Peele & Greta Gerwig Make The Cut In 2018 DGA Awards Nominees
There are a number of key stats to look for. Films that earn Best Editing nominations always have a better shot at winning Best Picture than those who don’t. Any film that has more than one acting nomination along with Editing, Directing and Screenwriting nods is also a prime contender for Oscar’s biggest prize. A film that doesn’t have a Directing nomination rarely wins (“Argo” is the most recent exception).
Based on my predictions Guillermo del Toro’s “The Shape of Water” will lead all films with thirteen nominations (although it’s possible it could have up to 14). “Dunkirk” should have eight, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” will have seven, “Darkest Hour” will earn six and both “Get Out” and “Lady Bird” will have five nominations each.
As always, there will be some major surprises, but if you’re looking for a general rundown of what should earn the Academy’s fancy this is a pretty good place to start.
BEST PICTURE
“Call Me By Your Name”
“Darkest Hour”
“Dunkirk”
“The Florida Project”
“Get Out”
“Lady Bird”
“The Post”
“The Shape of Water”
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Party Crashers: “The Big Sick,” “I, Tonya,” “Wonder Woman,” “Mudbound”
Lowdown: “The Florida Project” is on shaky ground, but something tells me it’s going to get in. “The Big Sick” has the best chance of crashing with “I, Tonya,” “Mudbound” and “Wonder Woman” having a puncher’s chance. If “The Post” doesn’t make it — something many are whispering about — it would be stunning considering not just Spielberg’s pedigree, but Streep’s and Hanks’ as well. And, if you didn’t notice, we’re making the assumption there are nine nominees this year, but just eight is still possible.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Timothée Chalamet, “Call Me By Your Name”
Daniel Day-Lewis, “Phantom Thread”
James Franco, “The Disaster Artist”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Get Out”
Gary Oldman, “The Darkest Hour”
Party Crashers: Tom Hanks (“The Post”), Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq”)
Lowdown: Boy, Franco getting nominated is gonna be fun, huh? The sexual harassment allegations against him broke far to late to affect a nod. If he doesn’t make the cut and, say, Hanks or Washington do instead, its because he never was going to make it in the first place.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Sally Hawkins, “The Shape of Water”
Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
Saoirse Ronan, “Lady Bird”
Meryl Streep, “The Post”
Party Crashers: Judi Dench( “Victoria & Abdul”), Jessica Chastain, “Molly’s Game”
Lowdown: The last slot is really a crapshoot. We’re going with Streep because of the track record, but Dench or Chastain could surprise.
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
Woody Harrelson, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Richard Jenkins, “The Shape of Water”
Christopher Plummer, “All The Money In The World”
Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Party Crashers: Armie Hammer, Michael Stuhlbarg (“Call Me By Your Name”)
Lowdown: We’re still hoping that Hammer and/or Stuhlbarg sneak in, but Plummer and Jenkins have a better shot of a nomination at this point.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mary J. Blige, “Mudbound”
Holly Hunter, “The Big Sick”
Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Octavia Spencer, “The Shape of Water”
Party Crashers: Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”), Hong Chau (“Downsizing”)
Lowdown: We’ll be shocked if Spencer or Hunter somehow don’t make it, but could Manville play spoiler?
DIRECTING
Guillermo del Toro, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Christopher Nolan, “Dunkirk”
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Party Crashers: Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me By Your Name”), Sean Baker (“The Florida Project”)
Lowdown: Yes, these are the same as the DGA nominees. We know they haven’t matched up in eons, but we don’t care. Maybe we just can’t imagine a world where either Peele or Gerwig get snubbed? Even if it means Guadagnino or Baker earn nominations none of us want to deal with that furor on social media and inevitable think pieces if Peele or Gerwig don’t.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Guillermo del Toro, Vanessa Taylor, “The Shape of Water”
Greta Gerwig, “Lady Bird”
Emily V. Gordon, Kumail Nanjani, “The Big Sick”
Martin McDonagh, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Jordan Peele, “Get Out”
Party Crashers: Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”), Liz Hannah and Josh Singer (“The Post”)
Lowdown: These should be your five although Anderson might find a way to sneak in.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
James Ivory, “Call Me By Your Name”
Scott Neustadter, Michael H. Weber, “The Disaster Artist”
Aaron Sorkin, “Molly’s Game”
Jack Thorne, Steve Conrad, Stephen Chbosky, “Wonder”
Virgil Williams and Dee Rees, “Mudbound”
Party Crashers: Sofia Coppola (“The Beguiled”), Alan Heinberg (“Wonder Woman”)
Lowdown: A historically weak year for this category limps to the finish line with “Wonder” likely the fifth pick.
EDITING
Paul Machliss, Jonathan Amos, “Baby Driver”
Gregory Plotkin, “Get Out”
Jon Gregory, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
Lee Smith, “Dunkirk”
Sidney Wolinsky, “The Shape of Water”
Party Crashers: “Blade Runner 2049,” “I, Tonya,” “Darkest Hour”
Lowdown: Is “Baby Driver” a reach? We don’t think so after BAFTA, but that could end up being the slot for “Blade Runner 2049.”
COSTUMES
Alexandra Byrne, “Murder on the Orient Express”
Mark Bridges, “Phantom Thread”
Jacqueline Durran, “Beauty and the Beast”
Ellen Mirojnick, “The Greatest Showman”
Luis Sequeira, “The Shape of Water”
Party Crashers: “Darkest Hour,” “I, Tonya,” “Wonder Woman,” “Victoria & Abdul”
Lowdown: Durran is getting at least one nomination. The question is whether she gets two with her work from “Darkest Hour” also making the cut. This is a tough category to pin down with the only lock being Bridges work in “Phantom Thread.”