FEATURE DOCUMENTARY
“Abacus: Small Enough To Jail”
“Faces Places”
“Icarus”
“Strong Island“
“Last Man in Aleppo”
Who will win: “Icarus”
Who should win: “Last Man in Aleppo”
Upset potential: “Faces Places”
Here’s the deal: “Icarus” has benefited from being on Netflix’s platform, it impacts International Olympic Committee’s sanctions against Russia for doping and a major marketing campaign in phase 2 to get members to see it. “Last Man in Aleppo” is also available on the service, but hasn’t received the same marketing love (at least form this pundit’s perspective), but is an emotionally compelling tale members usually go for in this category. And then we have “Faces Places.” It’s not a great documentary, but it’s entertaining and centers on the legendary Agnès Varda who co-directed. In any other year, “Faces” would be a slam dunk as Varda had never won an Academy Award. The emphasis though is on “had.” In November Varada received an honorary Oscar at the Governors Awards. Members are supposed to not take that into consideration, and clearly, the nominating documentary branch didn’t, but the general membership? Let’s just say it’s one of the toughest calls of the night.
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“A Fantastic Woman”
“On Body And Soul”
“Loveless”
“The Insult”
“The Square”
Who will win: “A Fantastic Woman”
Who should win: “A Fantastic Woman”
Upset potential: “The Square,” “The Insult”
Here’s the deal: There has been little consensus this season in the Foreign Language category with films such as “Foxtrot” and “In the Fade” winning major critics or award show honors not getting nominated and no other film decisively rising to the top. That leaves Palme d’Or winner “The Square” which isn’t universally loved, “The Insult” which is almost Foreign Language Oscar bait and feels like a courtroom TV movie and “A Fantastic Woman,” arguably the most moving of the three. And in situations like this emotion is what usually puts you over the top. That favors the Chilean entry, “A Fantastic Woman.”
ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread”
Carter Burwell, “Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
John Williams, “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”
Who will win: Alexandre Desplat, “The Shape of Water”
Who should win: Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread”
Upset potential: Jonny Greenwood, “Phantom Thread” or Hans Zimmer, “Dunkirk”
Here’s the deal: Alexandre Desplat has won a ton of precursor honors and, as noted previously, there is a ton of love for “Shape of Water” within the Academy. That being said, Jonny Greenwood‘s score for “Phantom Thread” is just as integral a part of Paul Thomas Anderson’s drama as Desplat’s is in Guillermo del Toro’s dramatic fantasy. Those six nominations for “Phantom” are also a significant tally, especially when it’s spread out over so many branches. Is this one category where they reward it?
ORIGINAL SONG
“Mighty River” from “Mudbound,” Mary J. Blige
“Mystery of Love” from “Call Me by Your Name,” Sufjan Stevens
“Remember Me” from “Coco,” Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from “Marshall,” Diane Warren, Common
“This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman,” Benj Pasek, Justin Paul
Who will win: “Remember Me” from “Coco”
Who should win: “Mystery of Love” from “Call Me By Your Name”
Upset potential: “This Is Me” from “The Greatest Showman”
Here’s the deal: My heart tells me Pasek and Paul will repeat in this category after winning for “La La Land” last year, but my mind keeps reminding me how much The Academy loves Pixar movies and how integral “Remember Me” is to the climax of that animated picture. I may kick myself for not going with “This Is Me,” but the fact “Coco” was such a substantially bigger hit is too hard to ignore.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola, “Blade Runner 2049”
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, “Darkest Hour”
Nathan Crowley, Gary Fettis, “Dunkirk”
Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeff Melvin, “The Shape of Water”
Sarah Greenwood, Katie Spencer, “Beauty And The Beast”
Who will win: Paul D. Austerberry, Shane Vieau, and Jeff Melvin, “The Shape of Water”
Who should win: Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola, “Blade Runner 2049”
Upset potential: Dennis Gassner, Alessandra Querzola, “Blade Runner 2049”
Here’s the deal: If all things were equal Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola would easily win for “Blade Runner 2049,” but I think we’ve noted how little the general membership care for that picture. On the other hand, the “Shape of Water” team created a beautifully immersive world with a fraction of the budget and, oh yeah, they love the movie.
COSTUME
Jacqueline Duran, “Beauty and the Beast”
Jacqueline Duran, “Darkest Hour”
Mark Bridges, “Phantom Thread”
Louis Sequeira, “The Shape of Water”
Consolata Boyle, “Victoria and Abdul”
Who will win: Mark Bridges, “Phantom Thread”
Who should win: Louis Sequeira, “The Shape of Water”
Upset potential: Louis Sequeira, “The Shape of Water”
Here’s the deal: We actually think this race is much closer than it first appears. To many, Mark Bridges work in “Phantom Thread” would be is an obvious slam dunk, but I’ve heard numerous below-the-line members remark they think his work is often “frumpy” and overrated. Granted, the general membership (and the actor’s branch) likely doesn’t see it that way, but if Louis Sequeira and “The Shape of Water” “surprise” here you’ll know why.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Guardians Of The Galaxy Vol. 2“
“Kong: Skull Island”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
“War for the Planet of the Apes”
Who will win: “War for the Planet of the Apes”
Who should win: “Blade Runner 2049”
Upset potential: “Blade Runner 2049” or “Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Here’s the deal: Once again our personal pick would be “Blade Runner 2049,” but we’re convinced Roger Deakins is the only member of that crew that goes home with an Oscar Sunday night. Instead, look for “War for the Planet of the Apes” to be the first film in this latest “Apes” trilogy to breakthrough and finally win this often upset-filled category (and, dear god, if “Kong: Skull Island” somehow wins I’m going to scream my bloody head off).
SOUND MIXING
“Baby Driver”
“Blade Runner 2049”
“Dunkirk”
“The Shape of Water”
“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”
Who will win: “Dunkirk”
Who should win: “Dunkirk”
Upset potential: “Baby Driver” or “The Shape of Water”
Here’s the deal: You’re not supposed to vote for the same film to win Sound Mixing and Sound Editing in the same year. In actuality, it happens more often than not. Just this decade “Gravity,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Hugo” and “Inception” have won both honors. Members like “Baby Driver,” but we still think they check off both categories for “Dunkirk,” a film that has much more sophisticated sound work.