There are a couple of things to always remember about the Golden Globes. First off, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (aka the HFPA) are not like the Academy, any industry guild organization or any major city-based critics group. They are 90 or so international journalists who mostly live in the United States and are keenly aware of not only making the studios and networks who provide them with stellar access to talent happy, but the importance of not looking “wrong” in the eyes of their peers (well, at least when it comes to film).
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This year was pretty much a typical HFPA endeavor. They found a way to make almost every movie studio happy outside of Warner Bros. (yikes) and personal taste aside it’s hard to argue that any pick was god awful or truly embarrassing. It’s also important to realize that the Globes are not indicative of how the guilds will vote at all for their individual honors or how the Academy will vote. The Globes are a marketing exercise that, at best, gives Academy members a heads up to what films they should catch up on or screen before the nomination voting period ends. And that means if you’re Paramount Martin Scorsese‘s “Silence,” getting snubbed is worse than not getting a token nomination overall (although you can bet a majority of members will watch that screener anyway).
On the television side the HFPA love to induct new series into the awards season mix and they didn’t fail giving HBO‘s “Westworld,” NBC‘s “This Is Us,” FX‘s “Atlanta” and Netflix‘s “The Crown” and “Stranger Things” a slew of nods. Moreover, while the Best Actress – Drama Series categories somehow managed to have no nominees of color after Taraji P. Henson won last year, the Best Actress – Musical or Comedy Series features the sort of deserved, diverse group of nominees we can only hope SAG recognizes later this week.
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Keeping that in mind, here are some quick takes on this year’s nominations and how they fit into awards season overall.
Best Picture, Drama
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Analysis: I teased “Hacksaw’s” chances in my predictions, but wasn’t anticipating they would go as far as they did (more on that later). The fact they gave “Nocturnal Animals” so much love and didn’t include it here is slightly quizzical, however. The big snubs were actually all three Paramount contenders: “Arrival,” “Fences” and “Silence.” Harvey got the “Lion” nod he desperately needed (for box office more than anything else) as “Loving” and “Hidden Figures” missed the cut. “Moonlight” should take this category next month, but don’t count out the HFPA going with Gibson’s drama in an upset.
Best Picture, Comedy or Musical
“20th Century Women”
“Deadpool”
“Florence Foster Jenkins”
“La La Land”
“Sing Street”
Analysis: This was a shallow field, but Paramount has to be thrilled that “Florence Foster Jenkins” landed here (it could still sneak in the Best Picture nomination race). The “Sing Street” nod is incredibly well deserved and “Deadpool’s” inclusion makes NBC happy as it has a fun a promotional tool. “Love & Friendship” was the serious snub. Amazon Studios and Roadside Attractions may look back and wonder what went wrong with that one and “20th Century Women’s” inclusion is a gift to A24 from a marketing perspective as it heads to theaters. And, duh, “La La Land” has this one in the bag.
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Best Director
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Analysis: Well, HFPA members did return the cologne Tom Ford sent them, but it doesn’t look good even if it wasn’t the only gifts studios tried. That being said, “Nocturnal Animals” almost made my top 10 and while it’s certainly polarizing it does have its fans. Gibson’s inclusion here over David Mackenzie (“Hell or High Water“), Denis Villeneuve (“Arrival“), Pablo Larrain (“Jackie,” “Neruda“) and even Scorsese (“Silence”) is disappointing (it was predicted though). Chazelle should take this, although A24 should really push for Jenkins here as a way for the HFPA to award both films.
Best Actor, Drama
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Joel Edgerton, “Loving”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Analysis: It’s surprising with HFPA’s “Nocturnal” love they didn’t reward Jake Gyllenhaal with a nomination, but they gave Bleecker Street some love with Mortensen’s nod. Focus‘ “Loving” really needed this nomination from a perception standpoint even if Edgerton misses out from SAG on Wednesday and they got it. There had been rumblings that organization loved “Patriots Day” and here is where they could have given Mark Wahlberg some recognition. That buzz appeared to be just that, buzz (and, honestly, CBS Films knew it even if their peers didn’t).
Best Actress, Drama
Amy Adams, “Arrival”
Jessica Chastain, “Miss Sloane”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Analysis: The only question here was whether Taraji P. Henson would make the cut for “Hidden Figures” over Chastain. She didn’t. In theory Portman should easily take this one home, but Huppert is a wildcard.
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Simon Helberg, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Aaron Taylor-Johsnon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Analysis: Yes, Taylor-Johnson is a surprise over Michael Shannon here, but its important to realize its still a nomination worthy performance, just an unexpected choice. Many, including this pundit, thought Liam Neeson was a player here for “Silence” but now that we’ve seen the movie that was always a red herring. Neeson likely won’t get a SAG or Oscar nod which opens up the field for Helberg or, potentially, Ben Foster from “Hell.” The HFPA just realized it first.
Best Supporting Actress
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester By The Sea”
Analysis: I’ve been hyping up Octavia Spencer for some time believing her key scene with Kirsten Dunst would get her a nod over co-star Janelle Monae. At worst, I know how an HFPA member thinks. Davis is a lock to take this one home, however.
Best Screenplay
Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”
Tom Ford, “Nocturnal Animals”
Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”
Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”
Taylor Sheridan, “Hell or High Water”
Analysis: I’ll repeat this again and again: “La La Land” is a great movie, but the script is its very weakest link and the HFPA clearly adore the movie. That being said expect a close race between Jenkins and Lonergan here. As for Ford’s inclusion you should seriously compare the stark differences between the original novel and his adaptation before you dismiss his recognition here.
Best Original Score
“Moonlight”
“La La Land”
“Arrival”
“Lion”
“Hidden Figures”
Analysis: Mica Levi‘s exclusion here for “Jackie” is a crime. Moreover, as good as Jóhann Jóhannsson‘s score for “Arrival” was the part the HFPA were likely moved by was licensed by another composer. That’s not great.
Best Original Song
“Can’t Stop The Feeling” – “Trolls”
“City of Stars” – “La La Land”
“Faith” – “Sing”
“Gold” – “Gold”
“How Far I’ll Go” – “Moana”
Analysis: Having seen “Gold” and already forgotten it the idea the equally forgettable song was nominated is probably one of the HFPA’s biggest goofs this year. Before you wonder why “Sing Street’s” “Drive It Like You Own It” wasn’t recognized here its possible The Weinstein Company didn’t submit it because it may not be Oscar eligible and they are pushing “Go Now” instead (the studio has still not provided an official answer on whether “Drive It” was eligible or not). Of course, the fact “Zootopia‘s” “Try Everything” didn’t get in and “Gold” did makes it look even worse.
Best Animated Feature Film
“Kubo and the Two Strings”
“Moana”
“My Life as a Zucchini”
“Sing”
“Zootopia”
Analysis: The HFPA did the right thing in snubbing “Finding Dory” even if it no doubt annoyed Pixar and the Mouse House. The fact “My Life” got in over “The Red Turtle“? That’s the bigger snub. Don’t be surprised if “Moana” takes this one over it’s more critically acclaimed studio stablemate, “Zootopia,” when the Globes are actually handed out.
Best Foreign Language Film
“Divines”
“Elle”
“Neruda”
“The Salesman”
“Toni Erdmann”
Analysis: “Divines” inclusion was shocking. Especially over two films the HFPA foreign language committee reportedly loved, “Aquarius” and “The Handmaiden.” “Elle” might challenge it, but “Toni Edrmann” should win here.