BAFTA nominations were announced early/late/unreasonably late this morning by Daniel Radcliffe and Holliday Grainger, and after a pretty shoddy longlist, which serves mainly to drain the suspense from the nominations list and to let Emma Watson tell her friends "I was this close to a BAFTA nomination!," the organization redeemed itself to a degree.
So for the most part, the standard Oscar front-runners did OK: "The Artist" led the pack with twelve nominations, while its main competition, "The Help," "The Descendants" and "Hugo," all were honored, although the first two only managed five and three nominations, respectively (albeit in major categories). "Hugo" picked up nine, including Best Director, but mostly in below-the-line categories, missing out on a Best Film nod.
Instead, there was a surprisingly strong showing for "Drive," which won four nominations, including Best Film and Best Director, (although Albert Brooks, the film's only likely Oscar chance, missed out), while, as expected, "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy" got some rare awards love with the second-biggest haul of nods, eleven, including being the only British film to break into the Best Film category. "My Week With Marilyn" also did well with five total nominations, mostly in the acting categories.
All in all, however, the love was spread around, with even the films that performed strongly missing out in key categories – "Hugo" for Best Picture, Alexander Payne for Director, "We Need To Talk About Kevin" in Screenplay despite a Director nomination for Lynne Ramsay, and no nomination for Steve McQueen, who wasn't even longlisted despite "Shame" being up for Best British Film and Best Actor. Surprisingly, both "Moneyball" and "The Ides of March," neither of which are key BAFTA films, won key nominations but missed out on the top prize. Missing entirely? "The Tree of Life," which didn't get a single nomination, while "Midnight in Paris" picked up only one. And finally, huzzah for debut director nominations for Joe Cornish and Richard Ayoade in a strange category that also included Ralph Fiennes.
Will it reflect the Oscars? Perhaps. 'Tinker Tailor' was always going to be a strong BAFTA performer, but it remains to be seen if the British contingent is enough to take it to Academy glory where it's missed out on so much of the awards season so far. Similarly, we suspect that "Drive"'s "European, sexy stuff" (in the words of Albert Brooks' character) appeals more to BAFTA types than the Oscar crowd, but it could turn out to surprise next week at the Oscar nominations. Check back on Sunday February 12th when the winners will be announced at the Royal Opera House in London. Full category-by-category analysis below.
Best Film
"The Artist"
"The Descendants"
"Drive"
"The Help"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
The status of "The Descendants" and "The Help" as Best Picture Oscar contenders is reinforced here, and while "Drive" is a lovely surprise, it will have to take the nomination as its reward; this is a two-horse race between "The Artist" and 'Tinker Tailor,' one that we suspect the silent film has the edge in.
Will Win: "The Artist"
Should Win: "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Best British Film
"My Week With Marilyn"
"Senna"
"Shame"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"We Need To Talk About Kevin"
A fair category that reflects the strength of British film in 2011, with the expected breakout of the documentary category for "Senna," which could be a dark horse to win, although likely won't. We suspect the vote will split, with voters who went for "The Artist" in Picture going for 'Tinker Tailor' here, but "We Need To Talk About Kevin" has a strong chance here.
Will Win: "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Should Win: "Shame"
Best Director
Michel Hazanavicius – "The Artist"
Nicolas Winding Refn – "Drive"
Martin Scorsese – "Hugo"
Tomas Alfredson – "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Lynne Ramsay – "We Need To Talk About Kevin"
Again, a nice surprise to see Refn included, while Scorsese's inclusion, at the expense of Alexander Payne and Tate Taylor, shows that he's got the strongest chance of beating Hazanavicius at the Oscars. Not here however; Alfredson and Ramsay (the latter the only British director on the list) could both figure in, but we think Hazanavicius has the upper hand.
Will Win: Michel Hazanavicius
Should Win: Nicolas Winding Refn
Best Actor
George Clooney – "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin – "The Artist"
Michael Fassbender – "Shame
Brad Pitt – "Moneyball"
Gary Oldman – "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Likely to be one of the closest mirrors of the Oscar race, Clooney, Dujardin, Fassbender and Pitt all seem like done deals at this point. Oldman is the question mark; we dearly hope he'll make it in (and is the likely winner here), but Leonardo DiCaprio or even Demián Bichir could end up edging him out.
Will Win: Gary Oldman
Should Win: Michael Fassbender
Best Actress
Berenice Bejo – "The Artist"
Viola Davis – "The Help"
Meryl Streep – "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton – "We Need To Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams – "My Week With Marilyn"
Olivia Colman's absence here is somewhat of a stunner — we'd long thought of her as a strong contender for "Tyrannosaur." Thrown off by Berenice Bejo's upgrade from Supporting Actress, where she'll be competing at the Oscars, this is otherwise a fair representation of what the Academy's likely to go for. Expect to see Glenn Close or Rooney Mara ('Dragon Tattoo' having been otherwise virtually snubbed by the Brits) in her place when the Academy comes to vote.
Will Win: Meryl Streep
Should Win: Tilda Swinton
Best Supporting Actor
Kenneth Branagh – "My Week With Marilyn"
Jim Broadbent – "The Iron Lady"
Jonah Hill – "Moneyball"
Philip Seymour Hoffman – "The Ides of March"
Christopher Plummer – "Beginners"
Jim Broadbent gets his annual 'well done, you showed up' nomination for one of his weakest performances (a virtual reprise of his turn in "Iris"), this one is unlikely to be repeated next week. Similarly, Philip Seymour Hoffman's nod is a surprise, but a less unpleasant one, while Albert Brooks' absence is perhaps explained by his status as being relatively unknown in the U.K. 'Tinker Tailor' had three actors on the longlist, but clearly the vote was spread too thin. Like everywhere else, this should be Christopher Plummer's, but don't count out Kenneth Branagh.
Will Win: Christopher Plummer
Should Win: Christopher Plummer
Best Supporting Actress
Carey Mulligan – "Drive"
Jessica Chastain – "The Help"
Judi Dench – "My Week With Marilyn"
Melissa McCarthy – "Bridesmaids"
Octavia Spencer – "The Help"
Did you know that legally, thanks to a law passed in 1983, BAFTA have to nominate Judi Dench for something every year or have their funding cut by the British government? That's what she's doing in here. Carey Mulligan's presence is a surprise, and Melissa McCarthy continues on the Oscar nomination knife-edge with a showing here. One of the most open of the categories, but look for one of the ladies of "The Help," in which case it's anyone's.
Will Win: Octavia Spencer
Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jim Rash, Nat Faxon, Alexander Payne – "The Descendants"
Tate Taylor – "The Help"
George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon – "The Ides of March"
Steve Zaillian, Aaron Sorkin – "Moneyball"
Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan – "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Tate Taylor's presence is an eyebrow-raiser, suggesting that he might not be totally absent from the Kodak next month, but otherwise this should be relatively close. 'Tinker Tailor,' an outsider for an Oscar nomination, will likely win here, mainly because the British don't understand baseball.
Will Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Should Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Best Original Screenplay
Michel Hazanavicius – "The Artist"
Kristin Wiig, Annie Mumolo – "Bridesmaids"
John Michael McDonagh – "The Guard"
Abi Morgan – "The Iron Lady"
Woody Allen – "Midnight In Paris"
A mixed bag this one: "Midnight in Paris" picked up its sole nomination, but is no means the home-run to win. Any of the others could conceivably pick it up here, but we wonder if the foul-mouthed fun of "Bridesmaids" or "The Guard" might have the edge.
Will Win: "The Guard"
Should Win: "The Guard"
Film Not in the English Language
"Incendies"
"Pina"
"Potiche"
"A Separation"
"The Skin I Live In"
Another odd mix ("Potiche"? Really?), including one Oscar nominated film from last year, but as with every other award, "A Separation" has this wrapped up.
Will Win: "A Separation"
Should Win: "A Separation"
Best Debut by a British Director, Writer or Producer
Richard Ayoade – "Submarine"
Paddy Considine – "Tyrannosaur"
Joe Cornish – "Attack the Block"
Ralph Fiennes – "Coriolanus"
Will Sharp – "Black Pond"
Odd to see Ralph Fiennes and Paddy Considine in any newcomer category, but fair enough we suppose, while at the other end of the spectrum, the virtually unknown Will Sharp gets a nod for the barely-released, micro-budget "Black Pond" — hopefully it'll get the film more attention. Ayoade or Cornish are the front-runners here, however.
Will Win: Richard Ayoade
Should Win: Joe Cornish
Best Animated Film
"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Arthur Christmas"
"Rango"
Nice to see a line-up with no sequels. British love of 'Tintin' makes that a possibility, but we suspect that Aardman's "Arthur Christmas" has the edge — the film was a giant box office smash over here.
Will Win: "Arthur Christmas"
Should Win: "The Adventures of Tintin"
Best Documentary
"George Harrison: Living In A Material World"
"Project Nim"
"Senna"
"Hugo" 's snub in Best Picture is redeemed here for Scorsese. Of the three, "Project Nim" is the only one on the Oscar shortlist, but Asif Kapadia might as well go and pick this one up right now.
Will Win: "Senna"
Should Win: "Project Nim"
Best Art Direction
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"War Horse"
One of a slim handful of nods for 'Harry Potter' and "War Horse," while "The Artist" and "Hugo" start their sweep of the technical categories. If 'Tinker Tailor' takes anything below-the-line, however, it'll be this.
Will Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Should Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Best Cinematography
"The Artist"
"The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
"Hugo"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"War Horse"
We're a little surprised at "War Horse" and 'Dragon Tattoo' considering their poor showing elsewhere, and the absence of the more deserving "Drive" and "The Tree of Life." Neither will likely win, however, but any of the other three could take it.
Will Win: "Hugo"
Should Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Best Costume Design
"The Artist"
"Hugo"
"Jane Eyre"
"My Week With Marilyn"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
A sole showing for "Jane Eyre," sadly, in a category that should mirror the Oscars, although don't be suprised if both 'Marilyn' and 'Tinker Tailor' miss out in favor of something odd like "Anonymous."
Will Win: "Jane Eyre"
Should Win: "Jane Eyre"
Best Film Editing
"The Artist"
"Drive"
"Hugo"
"Senna"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
Much deserved, trend-bucking nods for "Senna," "Drive" and 'Tinker Tailor,' while those who found "Hugo" languidly paced will be cross at Thelma Schoonmaker's nomination here. It won't win, however.
Will Win: "Senna"
Should Win: "Senna"
Best Makeup & Hair
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
"Hugo"
"The Iron Lady"
"My Week With Marilyn"
"The Iron Lady" presumably included for "most hairspray," but at least it wasn't "J. Edgar." 'Harry Potter' probably takes a sole win here.
Will Win: 'Harry Potter'
Should Win: 'Harry Potter'
Best Music
Ludovic Bource – "The Artist"
Trent Reznor & Atticus Ross – "The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo"
Howard Shore – "Hugo"
Alberto Iglesias – "Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
John Williams – "War Horse"
A consolation prize for Reznor & Ross suggest that they could be gettting another Oscar nomination. We're delighted to see Bource (the likely winner) and Iglesias in here, less so about John Williams.
Will Win: Ludovic Bource
Should Win: Alberto Iglesias
Best Sound
"The Artist"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy"
"War Horse"
Lolz at the silent film getting a sound nomination, not that it's not deserved, while "War Horse" gets another consolation prize. Probably 'Harry Potter,' by the "most sound" rule.
Will Win: 'Harry Potter'
Should Win: 'Tinker Tailor'
Best Visual Effects
"The Adventures of Tintin"
"Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2"
"Hugo"
"Rise of the Planet of the Apes"
"War Horse"
A little curious that "The Adventures of Tintin" gets an effects nod, seeing as it's, you know, computer animated. But we'll let it slide. This'll be the apes at the Oscars, but Potter could make a showing too.
Will Win: ROTPOTA
Should Win: ROTPOTA
Best Animated Short
"Abuelas"
"Bobby Yeah"
"A Morning Stroll"
Best Short Film
"Chalk"
"Mwansa The Great"
"Only Sound Remains"
"Pitch Black Heist"
"Two And Two"
Rising Star Award
Adam Deacon
Chris Hemsworth
Tom Hiddleston
Chris O'Dowd
Eddie Redmayne