Unlike Adapted Screenplay, the Original Screenplay category is not only more competitive but likely more settled with at least three nominees. Paul Thomas Anderson has four, yes, four Screenplay nominations to date (split in Original and Adapted), but has never won. Will “Licorice Pizza” deliver him a fifth nomination? It looks like it. Kenneth Branagh‘s autobiographical “Belfast” is pretty much a lock for a nomination (he earned an Adapted nod for “Hamlet” in 1998) and it’s likely Zach Baylin lands a nod for “King Richard.” As for the rest? Well, Pedro Almodovar won this category for “Talk to Her” in 2003. He’ll go for a second nomination with another Spanish snub for International Film, “Parallel Mothers” and it looks like he’ll make it.
At this point we’re giving the fifth slot to Joachim Trier’s “The Worst Person in the World,” but we’ll see. Asghar Farhadi earned a nomination in this category in 2012 for “A Separation,” he’ll try to duplicate that feat with “A Hero.” Adam McKay has been honored with two nods for both “The Big Short” and “Vice.” He’ll attempt to go three for three with “Don’t Look Up” (he already won for “Short”). Aaron Sorkin won Adapted Screenplay for “The Social Network” in 2011. He’s added three writing nominations since and he’ll try to bring that tally to five with “Being the Ricardos.” And, last but not least, Wes Anderson, a three-time nominee in this category, will hope to finally break through with “The French Dispatch.” [Updated Jan 2]
Likely
“Licorice Pizza”
“Belfast”
“King Richard”
“Parallel Mothers”
“The Worst Person in the World”
In The Mix
“Don’t Look Up”
“C’Mon C’Mon”
“A Hero”
“Being The Ricardos”
“The French Dispatch”
“The Hand of God”
“Mass”
“Red Rocket”
2022 Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
International Film