James Cameron’s money train keeps on rolling — while “Avatar” took its first significant percentage drop of just under 30%, it’s still holding remarkably well — in fact, it’s now pipped “Titanic”‘s record for the best fourth weekend. At a total of $429 million, it’s now the 7th all time domestic grosser, and is now officially the second biggest grossing film of all time worldwide. Yeah, the premium on 3D tickets helps, but there’s no denying that everybody’s favorite dragon-rape movie (seriously, we were the only people who felt a little uncomfortable with that rodeo scene?) is a genuine phenomenon.
The question is, can it beat “Titanic?” It’s a theatrical must-see, and the Oscar nominations to come will help push more discerning theatregoers who’ve previously been avoiding it, plus it has a clear run in 3-D theatres and the IMAX until “Alice in Wonderland” at the beginning of March. Our guess is that it may fall a little short domestically, but globally it stands a damn good chance of topping Titanic, and quite possibly even reaching the $2 billion mark – hell, it made $40 million in China alone this week. It hits its first real competition next week with the Denzel-goes-Mad-Max picture “The Book of Eli” (dear God, we hope they’ve changed the ending of that from the script draft we read…), so we think it’ll probably dip below $30 million next weekend, but we can never be too sure of anything with this one…
The surprisingly good “Sherlock Holmes” just clung on to the number two spot, although this may get revised when the actuals come in. It’s dropping more with each weekend, but it should get close to $200 million, even if it won’t necessarily top it — Warners may give some of its second or third screens to “Book of Eli” next weekend, which won’t help. A sequel’s pretty much a shoe-in, with or without Brad Pitt popping up as the big bad. Like last weekend, Alvin and his chipmunks were nipping on the great detective’s heels, with only $300,000 separating them. With two weeks before the next kid-friendly outing, this’ll certainly make it to $200 million, and the squeakquel will get its very own squeakquel, ensuring Justin Long’s house payments for some time to come. Unless of course our bid to have the UN officially declare the film as a form of child abuse succeeds.
Top of the new entries was gothy-vampire flick “Daybreakers,” which despite being long-delayed and dumped in January, made back most of its production budget with a decentish $15 million opening, with a better screen average than any movie in the top ten except “Avatar.” Who’s turning up for this? Twihards? Hardcore Ethan Hawke fans? People who like Placebo covering Kate Bush in trailers? “It’s Complicated” expanded a little, but took a big dip, suggesting some of its audience had been cannibalized by Terrible Rom-Com of the Year No. 1, “Leap Year.” Nevertheless, Baldwin & Streep held off Adams & Goode, mainly because people have actually heard of them.
“The Blind Side” has made more money than “Terminator: Salvation,” “A Christmas Carol” and “Wolverine.” Just let that settle in for a moment. If you’d tried to convince us of this a year ago, we’d have nodded politely, maintained eye contact, and moved towards the phone to call the police. Meanwhile, “Up in the Air” is declining slightly, for the first time, but is still doing nicely, and, with the Oscar bump yet to come, we’re pretty sure it’ll end up behind only “The Perfect Storm” and the Ocean’s movies as one of Clooney’s top grossers.
Rounding out the top 10, “Youth in Revolt” was pretty much DOA, but that’s to be expected — the Weinstein Company just didn’t have the funds to put it out, and we’re not sure that Michael Cera has a built-in audience just yet, even with a pencil moustache. Will “Scott Pilgrim” change that? Having said that, $7 million on under 2000 screens isn’t so bad, and it was cheap, so it’s not a train wreck. Finally “The Princess and the Frog” will most likely have had its last week in the top 10, but may yet cross $100 million.
Elsewhere, “Nine” is pretty much officially a disaster, and everyone knows the Academy won’t vote for a flop, so its chances of a Best Picture nomination are pretty much nil.”The Young Victoria” added a few hundred screens, and made a fairly decent number at just over a million, although we can’t see it going far, unless Emily Blunt picks up a surprise Oscar nomination somehow. “Crazy Heart” has been out for a month now, and is still posting consistently excellent screen averages, and is looking more and more like a very smart pick-up for Fox Searchlight, who otherwise had a difficult 2009, for the most part.
The only other new entry of note was Tim Allen’s directorial debut “Crazy on the Outside,” slinking onto a handful of screens and going nowhere. Full figures, as ever, available at Box Office Mojo. Next week sees, like we said, “The Book of Eli,” which looks dreadful, but should make it at least to Denzel’s standard $65 million (“Pelham 123,” “Deja Vu” and “Manchurian Candidate” all landed about there), while “The Lovely Bones” expands, and Jackie Chan just gives up in “The Spy Next Door.”
1. Avatar – $50.3 million ($430.8 million)
2. Sherlock Holmes – $16.6 million ($165 million)
3. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel – $16.3 million ($178 million)
4. Daybreakers – $15 million ($15 million)
5. It’s Complicated – $11 million ($76 million)
6. Leap Year – $9.2 million ($9.2 million)
7. The Blind Side – $7.75 million ($219 million)
8. Up in the Air – $7.1 million ($54 million)
9. Youth in Revolt – $7 million ($7 million)
10. The Princess and the Frog – $4.7 million ($92 milllion)