There are many ways to hype up a major film release. The more conventional ways include quality trailers, fun marketing materials, late-night talk show appearances, and hopefully, strong critical reviews. But when you’re “Aquaman” (and many other superhero films), you can’t necessarily rely on much of that. So, that’s when we start to see things like presale ticket numbers being thrown into the discussion.
It’s been several years since the idea of presales tickets through companies like Fandango has become a big thing. Film fans are now given the opportunity to spend their money months in advance for screenings of films, giving studios a decent metric to show interest and expectations at the box office. And in the case of the aforementioned “Aquaman,” it appears the presales are doing pretty well, especially when compared to other major 2018 films.
Fandango is reporting that “Aquaman,” which is released December 21 (unless you’re an Amazon Prime member), is currently outpacing “Venom” and “Mission: Impossible — Fallout” in first-day ticket presales. Does that mean “Aquaman” is going to have an opening weekend comparable to the $80 million that “Venom” scored or the $61 million that ‘Fallout’ earned in its first three days? That’s still up in the air. You see, the thing about presales information is that it’s just entirely too premature and often a terrible predictor for box office success.
Let’s take a look at one of the more recent examples of studios hyping up ticket presales — “Solo: A Star Wars Story.”
Back on May 4, it was reported that ‘Solo’ presales on Fandango were doubling “Black Panther” presales. That’s right, DOUBLING. Keep in mind that “Black Panther” debuted in February 2018 with a three-day haul of $202 million. Sure, the headline is striking that ‘Solo’ is going to double “Black Panther’s” box office success, but needless to say, the truth was far worse.
‘Solo’ ended up debuting with only $84 million in its opening weekend, less than half of what “Black Panther” did. So, as you can see, presales are just artificial marketing metrics to hype up fans for what a studio hopes will be a huge film. However, the truth is it just shows that for one day, a lot of people bought tickets to a movie.
What presales don’t take into consideration are real-world issues, such as competition. The elephant in the room, when talking about presales, is the fact that most tickets are bought within 24 hours of the showing. That means when the average film fan goes to the multiplex to see a movie, they’re going to have to decide between “Aquaman” and the competition. And guess what? The competition for “Aquaman” is fierce.
Opening directly opposite the DC superhero film is the “Transformers” spin-off “Bumblebee” and the Disney sequel “Mary Poppins Returns.” Those massive films also join the various other major movies that will already be in theaters at that time.
And if you want some more actual numbers to add to this Fandango presales nonsense, take a look at what the industry was predicting in late-October for “Aquaman.” As we reported, the early estimates were that “Aquaman” would make only $45 million in its opening weekend. That’s far, far less than “Venom’s” $80 million and ‘Fallout’s’ $61 million.
Now, are we saying that “Aquaman” is doomed to fail? No, not necessarily. All that we’re saying is that the film is still a month away and a lot can happen. And historically, presales and box office predictions are terrible indicators of performance. The only way to gauge how well “Aquaman” is going to do at the box office is to wait and see in December.