After last weekend’s mind-blowing opening, it didn’t appear like “Avengers: Endgame” would be able to do much this weekend that would rival the records set in its debut. But here we are, a week later, and guess what? Marvel Studios and Disney probably should get the second round of champagne bottles ready. Because in just two weekends, ‘Endgame’ is now the #2 movie of all time.
No, not for 2019. Not for superhero movies or Marvel Studios films. We mean the second largest worldwide box office total ever seen. However, let’s not crown it the biggest film ever, just yet. “Avatar” is still a large mountain that is yet to be climbed. But Iron Man and Captain America have the gear and are making their ascent.
READ MORE: ‘Avengers: Endgame’ 14 Of The Big Questions Answered
Before we talk worldwide totals, let’s take a look at the second domestic weekend. Unfortunately, for Marvel and Disney, “Avengers: Endgame” is estimated to only have the second biggest second weekend of all-time, with an impressive $145.8 million. Sure, that’s an astounding number, but it falls just short of “Star Wars: The Force Awakens,” which earned $149.2 million in its second weekend back in 2015. Of course, this isn’t a true apples-to-apples comparison because ‘Endgame’ is doing it outside of a holiday period, where schools are still in session, and folks aren’t flocking to the theaters as they do around Christmas, when ‘The Force Awakens’ debuted. So, that should make the domestic number for ‘Endgame’ all the more impressive.
With a domestic total of $145.8 this weekend, the latest ‘Avengers’ film only dropped -59% compared to last weekend’s astronomical debut. Normally, superhero films drop around -60% in their second frames, so this drop is pretty much par for the course. However, it can be celebrated as a win for the studio, as many analysts were looking at a -70% drop or so, based solely on last weekend’s record numbers. For Disney/Marvel, just hitting “normal” drops is promising.
As of Sunday estimates (which are likely to go up, as they did when last Monday’s actuals were released), “Avengers: Endgame” is now sitting at $619.7 million. That means, obviously, the film reached the coveted $600 million milestone faster than any other film, hitting the number in 10 days. It took ‘The Force Awakens’ 12 days to reach that number and last year’s “Avengers: Infinity War” 26 days. Of course, that means the in-between records for fastest to $400M and $500M were broken, as well.
As far as what this means for the long-term prospects, it’s difficult to compare ‘Endgame’ to ‘The Force Awakens’ because of the aforementioned holiday discrepancy. Clearly, the best comparison is with ‘Infinity War,’ which shared a similar release date and has the same franchise. But even ‘Infinity War’ isn’t close to as big as ‘Endgame.’ That being said, we can look at the weekend-to-weekend trends for ‘Infinity War’ to help sort of predict ‘Endgame.’ So, if the new film holds like the previous one (which isn’t a guarantee, with competition coming in the next week or so), the second-weekend cume accounts for approximately 66% of the domestic end result. That means ‘Endgame’ could be looking at a domestic cume of around $825 million or so. Many predict that this will do better and reach close to $900 million, which would put it in spitting distance of ‘The Force Awakens’ and its record of $937.7 million. We shall see.
Okay, but the real story this weekend is the worldwide numbers, where “Avengers: Endgame” has officially passed “Titanic” as the second largest film of all-time. Through Sunday, ‘Endgame’ is estimated to have reached $2.188 billion worldwide, thanks to a truly astonishing $1.569 billion overseas. The international cume of $1.569 billion is now the second-biggest overseas number of all time, thanks to a hefty $568 million from China, alone. In the Middle Kingdom, ‘Endgame’ is expected to cross $600 million, making it only one of a few films to reach that number in the country. And hundreds of millions more than the next-closest Hollywood film.
Now, the big question is – What about “Avatar?” Well, that isn’t as simple as you’d think, even though there are those that say that a $3 billion worldwide total is likely. I guess you can just call me cautious.
On paper, looking at the last two weekends, you’d assume that “Avengers: Endgame” would eclipse James Cameron’s 2009 film easily. But it’s not so easy. You see, through Sunday, the ‘Avengers’ film sits almost exactly $600 million behind “Avatar.” That’s a lot of money. With China only giving about $40 million more, and the domestic totals only increasing by a couple of hundred million dollars, the rest of the world is going to need to make up that $300 million or so that the film will need for #1. Of course, that isn’t such a crazy thought, and could still happen. But, to be fair, it’s going to be very close and even if ‘Endgame’ does beat “Avatar,” it’s likely not going to be by much.
However, with seemingly every other major record broken, and every other film in its rear-view mirror, “Avengers: Endgame” has the blue aliens in its sights. But interestingly enough, it might come down to the popularity of “Detective Pikachu” and Disney’s own “Aladdin” before we truly can write the last chapter on ‘Endgame.’
Last weekend, the Avengers had zero competition, and this weekend wasn’t much better. That didn’t mean that Hollywood was going to sit back and let Disney take all the money again, as studios like Lionsgate released films this weekend.
In hindsight, maybe that wasn’t such a good idea.
Of the three major debuts this weekend, Dennis Quaid’s invasion thriller “The Intruder” won the #2 spot domestically with a paltry $11 million. However, with its modest budget, Screen Gems isn’t likely too terribly upset with that debut. Lionsgate, on the other hand, is probably smacking itself for scheduling SXSW breakout comedy “Long Shot,” which stars Seth Rogen and Charlize Theron, against the superhero film. The political rom-com was supposed to be counterprogramming against ‘Avengers,’ but ended up being insignificant with a low $10 million debut. And with a modest ‘B’ CinemaScore, the word-of-mouth factor for the comedy might not be as big as the studio needs to make up for its estimated $45 million budget.
Lastly, the children’s movie, “UglyDolls,” arrived in theaters this weekend and quickly ended its hopes for a new animated franchise for its studio, STX, with only an $8.5 million debut. Sure, the film doesn’t have the same price tag (its budget is reported at $45 million) as its other CGI-animated counterparts, but this number all but ensures that “UglyDolls” will be a big loss for its studio.
As mentioned earlier, next weekend sees studios more willing to debut films, with “Detective Pikachu” expected to be the closest thing ‘Endgame’ can call realistic competition. Other films, such as “Poms,” “The Hustle,” and “Tolkien” are hoping that the ‘Endgame’ steamrolling is over, as they pray that counterprogramming works.
Here’s the domestic top 10 for May 3 to May 5:
1. Avengers: Endgame – $145.8M ($619.7M Overall)
2. The Intruder – $11M (Debut)
3. Long Shot – $10M (Debut)
4. UglyDolls – $8.5M (Debut)
5. Captain Marvel – $4.3M ($421M)
6. Breakthrough – $4M ($33.2M)
7. The Curse of La Llorona – $3.5M ($48M)
8. Shazam! – $2.45M ($135M)
9. Little – $1.5M ($38.6M)
10. Dumbo – $1.4M ($110M)