With news that Georgia is allowing for cinemas to reopen their doors next week (despite many of them probably staying closed for a variety of reasons), it appears that we are now entering the phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the US where we begin to look ahead. Will theaters open in June, as some are expecting? Will some states begin in May? And when will things get back to “normal?” These are all the questions that have no easy answers. But all signs point at “Tenet” possibly serving as the film that will restart the cinematic experience for many movie-goers.
According to Deadline, it appears that Christopher Nolan’s action epic, “Tenet,” with its July 17 release date, is poised to become the first major film to be released when cinemas reopen after being closed for months. The report even claims that some analysts predict that the film could earn $100 million in its opening weekend. Maybe. You see, that type of box office debut requires a lot of optimistic expectations.
As mentioned, Georgia looks to be one of the first states to enter Phase 1 of the US Government’s new regulations for opening businesses. The state’s Governor even announced that April 27 is the date that some businesses, including cinemas, will be able to reopen, with “strict social distancing.” What this means is that there can be no more than 10 people in one theater at a time, leading many to wonder if it’s even worth it for exhibitors to open if capacity per screening is going to be that low. In addition, with only a week before that reopening date, some exhibitors won’t even have the time to rehire staff and get their theaters up to snuff in time to meet the new regulations.
And keep in mind, that’s just a handful of states that will enter Phase 1. The large majority, such as New York and California (where the two biggest film markets are located) aren’t even close to entering that reopening phase. So, what’s more likely is that chains, especially, will be eyeing an opening date of June 1 or perhaps even July 1, with AMC and Cinemark mentioning both, respectively. So, by that measure, cinemas, for the most part, won’t probably be “mostly open” by summer, leading to “Tenet” being the first “event” of the summer.
That being said, for “Tenet” to earn $100 million, Deadline reports that theaters will likely need to be open to at least 50% capacity, with extra screenings added to meet demand, and states such as New York and California will need to be joining the rest of the country in that phase of reopening. Those are some lofty expectations and it’s unclear if they are optimistic or realistic.
If you want a barometer about how Hollywood thinks the movie theater business is doing, watch the release date of “Tenet.” If the film stays on course for July 17, then things are looking good. If it moves to a later date, then we may be looking at a longer shutdown than we were anticipating, which leads to even more tough conversations.
Here are some new images from “Tenet” to get your spirits up:
