Please realize this is not an exaggeration. This is very, very, very strange Best Picture race. Yes, there are always a ton of contenders vying for a Best Picture nomination after the trifecta of Venice, Telluride and Toronto unofficially kick off awards season. Yes, many of those players often fall to the wayside. It’s how the Best Picture race works. But you can pretty much figure out at least five to six of the nominees by now (eh most of the time). That’s not the case in 2017.
Well, so far at least.
Perhaps it’s still the shock of “Moonlight” triumphing at the Oscars in February. Maybe it’s the unsteady political environment. Maybe it’s the fact there is still no clear frontrunner as of Sept. 19 (I mean, even a frontrunner that won’t be one a few months from now.). Or it could be a combination of all those things. It leaves us with a status quo where the Best Picture race has so many question marks that everybody and their mother thinks they have a contender.
Are “Wonder Woman,” “Logan” and “War of the Planet of the Apes” legit contenders? I mean, I guess…? Can Fox Searchlight find a way to land three nominees? I mean, do Academy members refuse to vote for a nominee based on how well it’s studio is doing…? How many “little movies” can make the cut and how do members define that? I mean, maybe two or three a year and the ones that care do…? Can late arriving fare such as Ridley Scott’s “All The Money In The World” really make an impact? Sure, that’s what AFI Fest does best. Are the increasing number of international (i.e., “cinephile”) and diverse members affecting how the Academy votes and what they champion?
Actually, they totally are. It’s one reason why “Moonlight” won and why non-traditional, artistically inclined Sci-Fi or genre films such as “Mad Max: Fury Road” and “Arrival” earned nominations (keep that in mind when you start placing bets on your favorite blockbusters making the cut).
As you let those questions buzz about your brain you should also focus on this: Steven Spielberg’s “The Post.” From what I’ve heard there are just two edits even circulating (one for the filmmaker, one for John Williams). It’s based on Kay Graham’s tenure as the publisher of the Washington Post and the battles for journalistic freedom she oversaw with the both the Pentagon Papers and Watergate investigations. Meryl Streep plays Graham and it features a head-turning cast including Sarah Paulson, Carrie Coon, Bob Odenkirk, Alison Brie, Matthew Rhys, Michael Stuhlbarg and Tom Hanks, among others. If the Muller investigation into the Trump administration’s potential collusion with the Russian government during the 2016 election continues and if indictments are handed out “The Post” could be the most of the moment movie in decades. Assuming it’s also a good movie of course. But “The Post” has not screened. There is no trailer. There isn’t even an official still yet.
So, everyone who is in the game waits. And ponders.
Here’s your first Contender Countdown for the 2018 season. Note, you can see the lengthy list of potential Best Picture candidates here. The other major categories (links below) have also been updated.
1. “The Post”
In theory it’s the movie of the moment. If it’s too much like “Spotlight” it’s chances at frontrunner status become problematic.
2. “The Shape of Water”
In theory it’s the one people adore (so far). It would also be the most “genre” winner since “The Return of the King.”
3. “Dunkirk”
In theory it’s the old fashioned consensus builder. It’s not clear old fashioned consensus builders win anymore.
4. “Get Out”
In theory it follows in the tradition of “Silence of the Lambs,” “The Sixth Sense” and “The Exorcist.” It needs a campaign that pushes it’s prestige credentials more than its commercial ones.
5. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
In theory it just won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF so it’s likely in, right? It needs some year-end critical honors and top 10 lists to seal the deal.
6. “Call Me By Your Name”
In theory it has a passionate fan base that will give it the votes it needs to get in. It has to battle the vocal contingent of straight, white men want to take it down because it’s not “Moonlight” (seriously, this is a thing).
7. “The Florida Project”
In theory it’s the little indie that breaks through like “Room” and “Beasts of the Southern Wild.” It needs a very focused campaign, lots of screenings and some Academy member endorsements to make the cut.
8. “Darkest Hour”
In theory it’s the prestige period player that always finds a way to make the cut. It needs a campaign that reminds voters that it’s a great movie not just a great performance.
9. “Last Flag Flying”
In theory it’s another Richard Linklater gut punch that speaks to the older audience of the Academy. It needs a campaign that makes it seem cinematic.
10. “The Big Sick”
In theory it’s the feel good player that voters remember the most. It needs to find a way to convince skeptical voters why it’s more than just a well made, moving dramedy.
Almost there
(In alphabetical order)
“All the Money In the World”
You’ve teased us before Ridley. We’re wary, but curious.
“Battle of the Sexes”
Can this total crowd pleaser find a way to overcome an OK critical reaction so far? (Currently 67 on Metacritic).
“Blade Runner 2049”
Dare to dream. Would be great if the studio screened it since it’s opening in less than 3 weeks.
“The Greatest Showman”
Can Pasek & Paul help what seems like a fairly predictable story transcend into a memorable, original musical? Wait, that sounds familiar…
“Lady Bird”
We simply loved Laurie Metcalf in this. Yep.
“Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project”
It’s good. It’s bad. It’s good. It’s bad. It’s good. It’s bad. We’ll find out soon enough.
Current predictions:
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay