Hey everybody, I know it’s just the first week in December and we’ve still got over a month before Academy Award nomination ballots are due, but I’ve got news for you. The race for Best Picture is over. The nail is in the coffin. You can start engraving the statue. Lionsgate can even start mocking up the digital and home entertainment release advertising with “Best Picture Winner” emblazoned across the top of the artwork. “La La Land” is your next Oscar superstar.
Now, in theory some scandal could surround Damien Chazelle’s love letter to Los Angeles or Donald Trump could immediately turn the nation into a police state after his inauguration and cancel the ceremony, but neither scenario is likely to happen (well, at least the former isn’t). The fact is “La La Land” winning the New York Film Critics Circle gave it the final seal of approval it needed. Chazelle’s original musical was the belle of the ball at Telluride (the rich industry likes it!) has won the People’s Choice Award at TIFF (regular people like it!), has stellar reviews even before its NY and LA opening on Friday (88 grade on Meteoritic, 95% on Rotten Tomatoes) and it’s reaching levels of “Star Wars” need-to-see hype among the industry in New York and Los Angeles.
Chazelle’s original musical is also expected to earn more Academy Award nominations than any other film this year (granted, indicative only to a point). In fact, it’s plausible it will land 13 nominations and if it manages an Original Screenplay nod (generally recognized as the weakest part of the picture) it’s absolutely over. How did this happen, you ask?
There are two other reasons “La La Land” went from a soft frontrunner to an effective lock over the past week. The first is that Martin Scorsese’s “Silence” screened for press and guild members and while a well-made endeavor (reviews are embargoed at this time) it’s not a real contender to take the top prize and is likely a borderline nominee. Moreover, if “Manchester by the Sea” had a real shot it was going to need to sweep all three early critics groups (NBR, NYFCC and LAFCA). Instead, Kenneth Lonergan’s drama took just NBR and effectively found itself behind “Moonlight” after LAFCA’s awards announcements on Sunday. Obviously, “Manchester” could get a public relations coup winning the Golden Globe for Drama, but head to head with “La La Land” (which will win the Globe for Comedy or Musical) is pretty much a lost cause. It will have to resign itself to potential Original Screenplay and Best Actor wins (maybe).
Of course, there is still a ton of drama left over who else gets a Best Picture nod this year. There are probably only three locks: “La La Land,” “Manchester” and “Moonlight.” And that means between five and six seats at the table are up for grabs. It’s been quite a while since the rest of the field has been that open.
Keeping that in mind, here’s where the Contender Countdown stands before the Globe and SAG Awards nomination announcements next week.
Dec. 7, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Don’t convince yourself Emma Stone is beating Natalie Portman for Best Actress. Not yet anyway.
2. “Manchester by the Sea”
It didn’t win the critics group honor many expected (NBR vs. NYFCC), but the reviews and box office are on point. Question now is whether Casey Affleck can take the Best Actor statue from “Fences'” Denzel Washington (or is it the other way around?).
3. “Moonlight”
LAFCA Best Film win was huge, a SAG ensemble nomination is even more important. Quick note: If HFPA snubs it in different Golden Globes categories just realize…it’s the HFPA, not The Academy.
4. “Hell or High Water”
Like “Moonlight,” fighting (hoping) for a major SAG ensemble nomination in a very competitive year.
5. “Jackie”
Raves from NY and LA Times. Great per-screen for first limited weekend. Really will be status quo until DGA and PGA nods are announced.
6. “Lion”
The new FYC advertising design is light years better than what they started with. Could make a difference.
7. “Sully”
Probably in danger of not making the cut, but also is probably this year’s “Bridge of Spies” and gets in smooth sailing. Also, last time Warner Bros. didn’t have a Best Picture nominee was 2008 and even then it was a production partner on the winner (‘Slumdog’) and the international distributor on another (“Curious Case of Benjamin Button”).
8. “Fences”
Repeating from last countdown: “Do two incredible performances make a Best Picture nominee? This is going to be one to watch.”
9. “Arrival”
It’s really not a contender, but it’s not not one either. Complicated, I know.
10. “Hidden Figures”
Needs a SAG ensemble nomination and probably nods for Taraji, Octavia or Janelle to creep up the list.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Animated Feature Film
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score
Original Song
Costume Design
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon