We’re in the middle of the waiting game. The next Best Picture ball to drop is Ang Lee’s “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk” and that highly anticipated drama will finally screen Friday night at the 54th New York Film Festival. After “Lynn” there will only be a handle of major contenders left that haven’t publicly (or privately by press or loose lipped personal reps) screened yet: Ben Affleck’s “Live by Night,” Martin Scorsese’s “Silence,” Peter Berg’s “Patriot’s Day” and Theodore Melfi’s “Hidden Figures.” Let’s take a moment then to give some attention to a campaign that hasn’t gotten that much attention so far this season, the Best Actor race.
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Unlike Best Actress, the Actor category is seemingly wide open. A shallow field has Casey Affleck as perhaps the most expected nominee for “Manchester By The Sea,” Ryan Gosling should be rewarded for “La La Land” and the word on the street is that Denzel Washington has never been better in “Fences.” That leaves two open slots for the taking (maybe).
In this context, two unexpected nomination campaigns recently entered the fray last week. First, Sony Classics announced they are releasing Taylor Hackford’s “The Comedian” just in time for Oscar qualifying so that two-time winner Robert De Niro can try to make the Oscar cut for the eighth time. De Niro plays an older insult comic in a dramedy that he and screenwriter Art Linson (one of four credited writers on the project) have reportedly been trying to get off the ground for some time. It’s worth noting that SPC rarely goes for a late play like this one unless they think they have something. There are rumors the picture will debut at AFI Fest next month and that means we will know more about De Niro’s chances sooner rather than later.
Another long shot contender is “”The Man Who Knew Infinity’s” Jeremy Irons. While the film received mixed reviews (56 grade on Metacritic, 62% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes)it was a surprise indie hit for IFC Films earning $3.8 million domestic and almost $12 million internationally this past spring. Producer Edward R. Pressman, who previously collaborated with Irons on his Oscar nominated role in “Reversal of Fortune,” is mounting an Oscar campaign even if knows Irons faces an uphill battle. “Infinity” is screening at the White House later this month and Irons has already been courting BAFTA voters in London (and the BAFTA Awards might be his best shot at any recognition).
Of course, there are a number of anticipated performances still unseen including “Silence’s” Andrew Garfield, “Allied’s” Brad Pitt, “Patriots Day’s” Mark Wahlberg, “Gold’s” Matthew McConaughey, “Live by Night’s” Ben Affleck and even “The Founder’s” Michael Keaton (although we’re considering that a long shot ourselves). Moreover, “Loving’s” Joel Edgerton, “Nocturnal Animals’” Jake Gyllenhaal, “Lion’s” Dev Patel” and “Captain Fantastic’s” Viggo Mortensen should not be discounted (yet). So, unlike the Best Actress race where at least five contenders will legitimately get “robbed” if they are not nominated, perhaps the Best Actor category is a tantalizing mystery of who will actually make it to the Dolby Theater this February.
And if you’re curious why “Birth of a nation” is no longer in the top 10 this should help.
Oct. 12, 2016
1. “La La Land”
Biggest challenge for Lionsgate and its awards consultant? Not burning out too early as the movie musical doesn’t even open in limited release until Dec. 9.
2. “Sully”
Like “Bridge of Spies” and “Captain Phillips,” this Tom Hanks drama is in it for the long haul.
3. “Fences”
Another week to wonder whether Viola Davis will be in the Best or Supporting Actress category. And then probably another week after that.
4. “Manchester By The Sea”
The power of Amazon? All those (free?) ads all over IMDB and industry bible Box Office Mojo.
5. “Moonlight”
LA premiere on Thursday, opens in New York and Los Angeles on Oct. 21 which means a bunch of major reviews. Perhaps some idiot will join Jack Coyle in giving it a second “rotten” review out of 44 other positive overall on Rotten Tomatoes.
6. “Lion”
Let’s get this party started Harvey.
7. “Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk”
We’ll know the reaction from New York based critics Friday night. LA media will have to wait at least a week later.
8. “Hell or High Water”
Is the biggest indie hit of the year an under the radar SAG Ensemble player?
9. “Jackie”
No matter what its awards fate, Searchlight probably has a hit on its hands. The teaser trailer already has over 3.1 million views on the studio’s official YouTube channel. That’s almost a million more than the highly touted “Birth of a Nation” teaser has done in over five months.
10. “Silence”
The buzz is growing on this one, but “Live by Night” could easily fill this slot as well.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film – Coming Soon
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
For more Oscar and industry insight follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @TheGregoryE.