After countless screenings, Q&A’s, red carpets, screeners, hand holding, for your consideration ads, talk show appearances and cocktail parties, between 160 and 190 contenders are going to be rewarded with Oscar nominations bright and oh, so unnecessarily early on Tuesday morning. And almost just as many who didn’t hear their name called will try to get back to sleep knowing they no longer have to starve themselves for the February telecast. Granted, this season hasn’t had the distraction of a historic presidential election or an industry-changing #MeToo movement, but have been controversies late in the game.
“Bohemian Rhapsody” and “Green Book” have been dodging bullets (some of the filmmakers own doing) ever since they both were “surprise” Best Picture winners at the Golden Globes. It’s unclear if the stories were big enough to get Academy members’ attention (you pretty much need to land cable news coverage or a deluge of E-mail news breaks to do so) or if AMPAS members will do what they usually do, simply vote for what moves them the most.
It should also be noted that those of us who cover this are often want to overthink a category or two because of what a particular swath of members has been buzzing about. And often, who earns nominations in a particular category are a complete surprise to even those campaigning for months on end (even with the advent of expanded shortlists this year). Keeping all that in mind we’ve made our final nomination predictions in every category but the Doc, Live Action and Animated Shorts. Those will earn our attention after the nominations as they are another beast entirely.
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Costumes
Alexandra Byrne, “Mary Queen of Scots”
Ruth Carter, “Black Panther”
Julian Day, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Sandy Powell, “The Favourite”
Sandy Powell, “Mary Poppins Returns”
Lowdown: Three-time winner Sandy Powell should once again earn two nominations in one year for this category (she previously did it in 2016). BAFTA snubbed Ruth Carter and her “Black Panther” creations, but AMPAS won’t.
Animated Feature Film
“Incredibles 2”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”
“Ralph Breaks The Internet”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
Lowdown: These are pretty much locked. Would be a true surprise if “Early Man” or “The Grinch” sneaked in.
Cinematography
Alfonso Cuaron, “Roma”
Matthew Libatique, “A Star is Born”
Robbie Ryan, “The Favourite”
Linus Sandgren, “First Man”
Lukasz Zal, “Cold War”
Lowdown: We’d love for “If Beale Street Could Talk’s” James Laxton to make it, but your ASC nominees are most likely your Oscar nominees.
Adapted Screenplay
“A Star is Born”
“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
Lowdown: The screenplays for “Black Panther,” “Leave No Trace” and “The Death of Stalin” could easily knock one of the five out. However, the Writers Branch tends to reward challenging material every so often. That might be good news for Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini.
Original Screenplay
“Eighth Grade”
“The Favourite”
“First Reformed”
“Roma”
“Vice”
Lowdown: We’re taking a bit of a jump, but knowing the Writers Branch our guess is the revelation in the middle of voting about “Green Book’s” Nick Vallelonga will affect the film’s standing in this category (the rest probably not). That likely means both A24’s “Eighth Grade” and “First Reformed,” amounting to Paul Schrader’s first nod, both get in.
Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, “Vice”
Claire Foy, “First Man”
Emma Stone, “The Favourite”
Regina King, “If Beale Street Could Talk”
Rachel Weisz, “The Favourite”
Lowdown: “Mary Queen of Scot’s” Margot Robbie made the SAG and BAFTA cut, but we expect AMPAS to reward Regina King.
Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali, “Green Book”
Timothée Chalamet, “Beautiful Boy”
Adam Driver, “BlacKkKlansman”
Sam Elliott, “A Star is Born”
Richard E. Grant, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Lowdown: Does AMPAS love “Vice” or “A Star is Born” more? Our guess is the later and that means Sam Elliott earns a nod over last year’s winner in this category, Sam Rockwell. But do we feel incredibly confident about this pick? Not exactly…
Best Actor
Christian Bale, “Vice”
Bradley Cooper, “A Star Is Born”
Ethan Hawke, “First Reformed”
Rami Malek, “Bohemian Rhapsody”
Viggo Mortensen, “Green Book”
Lowdown: “BlacKkKlansman’s” John David Washington is the wild card here, but we expect Ethan Hawke to take the fifth slot.
Best Actress
Olivia Colman, “The Favourite”
Glenn Close, “The Wife”
Lady Gaga, “A Star is Born”
Melissa McCarthy, “Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
Yalitza Aparicio, “Roma”
Lowdown: This is a very tough one. The fifth slot could either be “Mary Poppins Returns'” Emily Blunt, “Cold War’s” Joanna Kulig or “Roma’s” Yalitza Aparicio. Kulig and Aparicio have been everywhere, but something tells me there is just enough love for “Roma” for the first-timer to sneak in (and this pains me to admit as I’d love for Kulig to get recognized).