The Hollywood Foreign Press Association continues to fascinate, perplex, and frustrate the industry at large. Despite its impressive philanthropic achievements (that broadcast rights money has to go somewhere), the HFPA appears to have gotten too smart for its own good. At least that’s the case when it comes to studios and networks figuring out if their films, programs, and stars are going to get coveted Golden Globes nominations every year.
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It used to be that most members of the HFPA were an open book. They would tell any number of consultants or executives what they liked, what they didn’t and, most importantly, why. Moreover, they would say what their fellow members were raving or trashing at that particular moment. More recently, things have shifted. Trust, the HFPA still loves a gossip coven like any leader in NATO not named Donald Trump, but it is becoming more and more adept at throwing everyone off. The small number of specific HFPA consultants (as opposed to general awards consultants) are told so much conflicting information that one studio executive told me its almost pointless to listen to them anymore. The Globes “tea” is so all over the place you can bet there won’t be one studio, network, or streaming service representative confident they know what the HFPA will anoint on Monday morning. And, if you were unaware, a lot is on the line.
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Listen, the Globes in context of the Oscar race are somewhat of a joke. They absolutely do not reflect the views of Academy members, but anyone will tell you enough nominations can convince a member to watch a film in their massive screener pile or a title on AMPAS’ new streaming site before voting. But even that is of minor importance to awards players. What the Globes really do is allow movies still in theaters to bask in a powerful spotlight and therefore create potentially more revenue (and profit). On the television side, the showcase episodic programs receive can give viewers that extra push to watch and even sign up for a service, pay channel, etc. The Globes have been around so long (this will be the 77th year) that a nomination is pretty much an endorsement of “quality” to the everyday entertainment consumer. That rankles many cinephiles around the world, but it is what it is.
Before jumping into this year’s nomination predictions we’ll reiterate how much conflicting information is out there. One thing that is clear, is that the membership is very interested in “Richard Jewell.” Almost the entire organization, approximately 83 members, showed up for a press conference with Clint Eastwood (pretty much unheard of) and they have specifically lauded the film’s lead, Paul Walter Hauser. Beyond that, one HFPA member will tell you the group doesn’t like “The Irishman” and another will tell you they do. One will tell you they love “Little Women” and another will say they don’t. Ah, the games people play.
We’ll find out what the HFPA have up their sleeve when the Golden Globe nominations are announced this Monday, Dec. 9 at 5 AM PT, 8 AM ET. In the meantime, some slightly educated (maybe) predictions.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Likely
“1917”
“Ford v. Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
Almost there
“Joker”
“Richard Jewell”
“Uncut Gems”
Lowdown: Do they love Clint enough to give “Richard Jewell” a Best Picture nod? Do they like “Ford v. Ferrari” enough to snub “Joker”? Ponder.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Likely
“Dolemite is my Name”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“Rocketman”
Almost there
“Hustlers”
Lowdown: Does Eddie Murphy’s “Dolemite” make the cut or does Jennifer Lopez’s “Hustlers” land a picture nod? Both actors are getting nominated, but we think Netflix’s pull makes it harder to say no to “Dolemite,” despite how big a hit the STX release was.
BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Likely
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Paul Walter Hauser, “Richard Jewell”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”
Almost there
Christian Bale, “Ford v. Ferrari”
Adam Sandler, “Uncut Gems”
Robert De Niro, “The Irishman”
Lowdown: No matter how it shakes down, the HFPA are going to be potentially snubbing at least two of their favorites. Hauser is the party crasher and based on the organization’s reaction to the movie it would be very surprising if he doesn’t make the cut. Can they say no to Bale, De Niro or Sandler? They might.
BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Likely
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Saoirse Ronan, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Lupita Nyong’o, “Us”
Rene Zellweger, “Judy”
Almost there
Cynthia Erivo, “Harriet”
Alfre Woodard, “Clemency”
Lowdown: It’s disheartening that it appears three black women – Nyong’o, Erivo and Woodard – are splitting one slot. Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on your opinion), the HFPA’s love for Ronan makes her pretty close to as much of a lock as the other three expected nominees. Our guess is Nyong’o will get it, but Erivo is right there (and looking at an Original Song nod instead).
BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Likely
Daniel Craig, “Knives Out”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Taron Egerton, “Rocketman”
Roman Griffin Davis, “Jojo Rabbit”
Eddie Murphy, “Dolemite Is My Name”
Almost there
Shia LaBeouf, “The Peter Butter Falcon”
Himesh Patel, “Yesterday”
Will Smith, “Aladdin”
Lowdown: Craig, DiCaprio, Egerton and Murphy are in. The question is whether the youngster David can hold on or if Patel, Smith or LaBeouf crash the party.
BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Likely
Ana de Armas, “Knives Out”
Awkwafina, “The Farewell”
Beanie Feldstein, “Booksmart”
Emma Thompson, “Late Night”
Constance Wu, “Hustlers”
Almost there
I mean…
Lowdown: Is there an actual female lead in “Cats?” Could Kaitlyn Dever from “Booksmart” sneak in here? Could Charlize Theron earn a second nod for “Long Shot?” Could Jillian Bell from “Brittany Runs A Marathon” surprise? Outside of de Armas and Awkwafina anything is possible in this category.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Likely
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”
Shia LaBeouf, “Honey Boy”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Almost there
Willem Dafoe, “The Lighthouse”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
Lowdown: Maybe it’s Pesci instead of Pacino. Maybe Waititi knocks LaBeouf out. Maybe Tom Hanks doesn’t make the cut. In all honesty, the only real lock is Pitt.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Likely
Laura Dern, “Marriage Story”
Scarlett Johansson, “Jojo Rabbit”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Florence Pugh, “Little Women”
Almost there
Annette Bening, “The Report”
Nicole Kidman, “Bombshell”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “Dolemite Is My Name”
Zhao Shuzhen, “The Farewell”
Maggie Smith, “Downton Abbey”
Lowdown: Dern, Lopez, Robbie and Pugh “should” be in. Can Johansson go two for two or will Shuzhen, Bening or someone else sneak in?
BEST DIRECTOR
Likely
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Clint Eastwood, “Richard Jewell”
Almost there
Noah Baumbach, “Marriage Story”
Greta Gerwig, “Little Women”
Taika Waititi, “Jojo Rabbit”
Lowdown: Tarantino and Bong are safe. The rest is quite curious. Word is that overall the HFPA like “Marriage Story” more than “Irishman” but will they collectively shaft Scorsese for Baumbach? We’re not so sure. Will they snub Gerwig a second time? Can Waititi surprise? Again, curious and curiouser.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Likely
“The Irishman”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Almost there
“Honey Boy”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”
“The Two Popes”
Lowdown: “Knives Out” could surprise and “Parasite” might be a reach here for the HFPA. The rest seems quite likely.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Likely
“1917”
“Ford v. Ferrari”
“Marriage Story”
“Joker”
“A Hidden LIfe”
Almost there
“The Irishman”
“Little Women”
“Us”
Lowdown: This is a pretty wide-open category this year with only Randy Newman’s “Marriage Story” and Marco Beltrami’s “Ford v. Ferrari” scores leading the pack.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Likely
“Beautiful Ghosts,” “Cats”
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again, “Rocketman”
“Into the Unknown,” “Frozen II”
“Stand Up,” “Harriet”
“Spirit,” “The Lion King”
Almost there
“All is Found,” “Frozen II”
“The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy,” “Toy Story 4”
“Don’t Call Me Angel,” “Charlie’s Angels”
“For You My Love,” “Blinded By The Light”
“Glasgow (No Place Like Home),” “Wild Rose”
“Never Too Late,” “The Lion King”
“One Little Soldier,” “Bombshell”
“Speechless,” “Aladdin”
Lowdown: Well, “Into the Unkown” is 100% getting nominated. The rest is, well…a crapshoot to be honest. But chances are they’d like Beyonce, Elton John and Taylor Swift sitting in the audience for NBC.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Likely
“Frozen 2”
“Klaus”
“How To Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
Almost there
“I Lost My Body”
Lowdown: The HFPA strangely snubbed “ParaNorman” in 2012 but haven’t missed out on giving love to a LAIKA title since. That means “Missing Link” is likely in. As for “Klaus,” it’s broad enough to probably push fellow Netflix title “I Lost My Body” to the sidelines.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Likely
“The Farewell”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
“Les Miserables”
“Traitor”
Almost there
“And Then We Danced”
“Out Stealing Horses”
“Invisible Life”
Lowdown: “Les Miserables” and “Traitor” are on the bubble, although the latter feels more secure at this point. In fact, this category may be full of surprises Golden Globe morning.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Likely
“The Crown”
“Game of Thrones”
“Pose”
“Succession”
“Watchmen”
Almost there
“Big Little Lies”
“Euphoria”
“This Is Us”
“The Mandalorian”
“The Morning Show”
Lowdown: I refused to believe the HFPA would be so dumb to nominate the mess that is “Morning Show.” Then again, it’s the HFPA and probably “Succession” is the only safe bet here.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY
Likely
“Barry”
“Fleabag”
“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
“On Becoming A God In Central Florida”
“Russian Doll”
Almost there
“The Good Place”
“Schitt’s Creek”
“Veep”
Lowdown: Maybe “Central Florida” is a bit of a reach for the HFPA. Maybe it’s slightly too under the radar in this deluge of streaming content, but if it doesn’t make it than “Schitt’s Creek” is likely in the mix.
BEST ACTOR TV SERIES – DRAMA
Likely
Bryan Cox, “Succession”
Kit Harrington, “Game of Thrones”
Tobias Menzies, “The Crown”
Billy Porter, “Pose”
Jeremy Strong, “Succession”
Almost there
Sterling K. Brown, “This Is Us”
Jeremy Irons, “Watchmen”
Lowdown: This category is a bit of a mess, but it is what it is.
BEST ACTRESS TV SERIES – DRAMA
Likely
Jennifer Aniston, “The Morning Show”
Jodie Comer, “Killing Eve”
Olivia Colman, “The Crown”
Regina King, “Watchmen”
Zendaya, “Euphoria”
Almost there
Nicole Kidman, “Big Little Lies”
Sandra Oh, “Killing Eve”
Lowdown: Would the HFPA really snub one of their co-hosts for the 2019 telecast, Sandra Oh? Oh, you bet they would.
BEST ACTOR TV SERIES – COMEDY
Likely
Don Cheadle, “Black Monday”
Ted Danson, “The Good Place”
Michael Douglas, “The Kominsky Method”
Bill Hader, “Barry”
Ben Platt, “The Politician”
Almost there
Ricky Gervais, “After Life”
Paul Rudd, “Living With Yourself”
Lowdown: Hader and Platt are probably good bets if in you’re in Vegas this weekend. The rest? The HFPA gonna do what the HFPA gonna do. And that means they could, sigh, nominate this year’s host, Gervais.
BEST ACTRESS TV SERIES – COMEDY
Likely
Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Kirsten Dunst, “On Becoming A God in Central Florida”
Phoebe Waller-Bridge, “Fleabag”
Natasha Lyonne, “Russian Doll”
Hailee Steinfeld, “Dickenson”
Almost there
Kristen Bell, “The Good Place”
Julia Louis-Dreyfuss, “Veep”
Catherine O’Hara, “Schitt’s Creek”
Lowdown: If Louis-Dreyfuss returns to the nominee circle, does that mean Dunst, Lyonne or Steinfeld are out? Pick wisely.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – SERIES, MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Likely
Kieran Culkin, “Succession”
Andrew Scott, “Fleabag”
Tony Shalhoub, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Stellan Skarsgård, “Chernobyl”
Henry Winkler, “Barry”
Almost there
Alan Arkin, “The Kominsky Method”
Peter Dinklage, “Game of Thrones”
Lowdown: This combined category is always such a crapshoot. They loved Culkin last year, however, and that helps him immensely this time around. Maybe Winkler doesn’t make it this year, but our gut says to stick with him.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – SERIES, MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Likely
Patricia Arquette, “The Act”
Helena Bonham Carter, “The Crown”
Laura Dern, “Big Little Lies”
Meryl Streep, “Big Little Lies”
Emily Watson, “Chernobyl”
Almost there
Alex Bornstein, “Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”
Olivia Colman, “Fleabag”
Lena Headey, “Game of Thrones”
Chrissy Metz, “This Is Us”
Maise Williams, “Game of Thrones”
Lowdown: Will the “Big Little Lies” love last enough for both Streep and Dern to make it? Can either “Game of Thrones” star hit the dance floor one last time? Note: Colman has been nominated in this category before and won, so don’t be surprised if she earns a nod here too.
BEST ACTOR – MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Likely
Mahershala Ali, “True Detective”
Jharrel Jerome, “When They See Us”
Jared Harris, “Chernobyl”
Aaron Paul, “El Camino”
Sam Rockwell, “Fosse/Verdon”
Almost there
Benedict Cumberbatch, “Brexit”
Russell Crowe, “The Loudest Voice”
Ian MacShane, “Deadwood: The Movie”
Lowdown: Outside of Paul, that’s a very familiar group of Emmy nominees (and a winner). Perhaps the HFPA throw some curveballs, perhaps not.
BEST ACTRESS – MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Likely
Joey King, “The Act”
Helen Mirren, “Catherine The Great”
Niecy Nash, “When They See Us”
Michelle Williams, “Fosse/Verdon”
Merritt Wever, “Unbelievable”
Almost there
Kaitlyn Dever, “Unbelievable”
Kathryn Hahn, “Mrs. Fletcher”
Lowdown: Can Dever and Wever both make it? Could Hahn surprise as the fifth nominee? Doesn’t really matter as Williams will win this one in a cakewalk.
MINISERIES OR TELEVISION FILM
Likely
“The Act”
“Foss/Verdon”
“Chernobyl”
“Unbelievable”
“When They See Us”
Almost there
“Catherine the Great”
“Deadwood: The Movie”
“El Camino”
“Years and Years”
Lowdown: “Chernobyl” and “Foss/Verdon” are safe. The rest, well, we’ll see.