There are now less than three weeks left until voting for the 93rd Academy Awards is completed. And as the date grows closer, more members and consultants are expressing their belief there will be fewer Best Picture nominees than “normal.” Granted, we’ve heard this scuttlebutt before only to see the membership magically work the math to still land at least eight nominees. But could this be the year voters break that streak?
READ MORE: “Mank” and “The Crown” lead 2021 Golden Globe Awards nominations
Since the Academy went to a statistical formula to determine the Best Picture nominees for the 84th Oscars, there have been just three years where only eight nominees were selected (2015, 2016, 2019). The other years all featured nine nominees and some observers have claimed the current formula the Academy uses makes it practically impossible for the max ten nominees to occur. Of course, this will all be a moot point for next year’s 94th Academy Awards when the Oscars will revert back to a permanent 10 nominee class that hasn’t been seen in 2011.
The theory for potentially seven or fewer nominees this year is that the membership is only passionate about a handful of films and it will be markedly difficult for campaigns to round up enough first-place votes to secure a nod. And, with AMPAS now at approximately 9,000+ voting members, the theory is the “math” is just too tough. Throw in the fact it’s a season without screenings, in-person Q&As, other in-person awards events, and even the “unofficial” cocktail parties (ie. “the circuit”), and there is cause for concern. A pandemic led to the election of a president by an almost entirely virtual campaign for the first time in history, but can online events and messaging secure eight or, heaven forbid, nine nominees? Or are we looking at a year of just seven, six, or the minimum five selections?
Ponder.
In the meantime, as we wait for PGA, DGA, and BAFTA nods…
Your Contender Countdown for Feb. 18, 2021.
1 “Nomadland”
At this point, it appears only “Minari” can dethrone it.
2 “Minari”
Landing the SAG Ensemble nod plus nominations for Steven Yeun and Youn Yuh-Jung sealed the deal.
3 “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Academy members certainly are fans, but enough to win? We’re not convinced…yet.
4 “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Rumblings its nomination chances are tenuous, but after proclaiming “Fences” wasn’t a Best Picture nominee (it shouldn’t have been) I’m never passing over an August Wilson play again.
5 “One Night in Miami”
Just keeps rolling along. See y’all at the ceremony.
6 “The Father”
Still the biggest tearjerker out there.
7 “Mank”
The Amanda Seyfried snub from SAG was eye-brow raising, but David Fincher’s baby landed on every BAFTA shortlist it could possibly make. Let’s see what happens with the actual BAFTA nominations come out.
8 “Soul”
Making the Original Score and the VFX shortlists? Don’t count it out yet.
9 “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Too late? Or just in time for Oscar voters?
10 “Promising Young Woman”
If Emerald Ferrell earns a DGA nod we’re bumping this up.
11 “Da 5 Bloods”
When you’re probably the odd man out of the SAG Ensemble nominees to get a Best Picture nod.
12 “News of the World”
Seemingly fading…but PGA, DGA, and BAFTA may indicate otherwise.
2021 Oscar Contenders and Predictions
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor