Perhaps the Best Picture race is truly over. When the 2022 Oscar nominations were announced Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” landed 12 nominations including Best Picture, Best Director, Adapted Screenplay, four acting nominations, and Editing. The only contender with nods in the five key categories. It also earned Original Score, Sound, Cinematography, and Production Design nods. In fact, the only qualifying branches that didn’t recognize it were Costumes and Makeup and Hair. So, it’s over right?
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Since Netflix first seriously began playing the Oscar game five years ago, this is the closest the streamer has come to snagging a Best Picture win. “Roma” sadly lost to “Green Book.” “The Irishman” and “Marriage Story” never came close to “Parasite” and neither “Mank” nor “The Trial of the Chicago 7” was taking out “Nomadland.” But this year, “Power” has set itself up as the inevitable champion, right?
Well, sure. Except for those two key items that should haunt Netflix executives for the next six weeks. FIrst, “Power” easily had the most nominations of any film nominated for Best Picture (or any categories for that matter). “Dune” landed 10 while “Belfast” and “West Side Story” took seven each. That would seem to be a good thing, but earning the most nominations rarely equates to a Best Picture win. In the 12 years since the Academy expanded the Best Picture field from five to 10 nominations, it’s only happened three times. Those films were “The King’s Speech,” “Birdman” (which tied with “The Grand Budapest Hotel“), and “The Shape of Water.” So, in theory, you could even argue it’s only happened twice in 12 years.
The other ingredient almost always necessary for a Best Picture winner is “heart.” In actuality, it’s more of a moving emotional response (perhaps that magic Nicole Kidman refers to in her AMC Theaters ad). Every film may move a number of people, but some movies obviously affect viewers more than others. Even non-tearjerkers such as “Birdman” and “Parasite” evoked a distinct emotional reaction. Some might say (not all) that “Power” doesn’t. It might not be as cold as “Roma” was to AMPAS members, but it’s certainly not a “Nomadland,” “Argo” or “12 Years A Slave.” That’s why Judi Dench‘s nomination in the Best Supporting Actress category for “Belfast” should give Focus Features hope and Netflix pause.
Throughout awards season, Dench’s co-star Caitríona Balfe was the most consistent member of the ensemble when it came to acting nominations. Balfe earned SAG Award, BAFTA Award, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice nominations. Her snub might have actually signaled something other than a preference for Dench’s performance. Especially in the final act of the film, where Dench is the “heart” of “Belfast.” The emotional crutch with a heartbreaking line at the end of the picture. Therefore, humor us when we suggest her nomination may not be a coincidence.
Of course, assuming Campion is a lock for DGA, how both films perform at the SAG, PGA, and BAFTA Award ceremonies should illuminate the race even further. So, for now, there is still a wee bit of a race.
Until there isn’t.
Here are your current Contender Countdown standings in the race for Best Picture.
February 8, 2022
1 “Power of the Dog”
Could Kirsten Dunst surprise in Best Supporting Actress? We’d love to see it.
2 “Belfast”
Biggest surprise out of the nominations wasn’t the Editing snub but cracking the uber-competitive Original Song field.
3 “West Side Story”
It might just be Ariana DeBose or bust.
4 “Don’t Look Up”
Remember all those members of the media who said Adam McKay’s polarizing flick was going to win Best Picture? Yeah. Cute.
5 “Drive My Car”
Watch out for Ryusuke Hamaguchi and Takamasa Oe in Adapted Screenplay. We’ve got a hunch.
6 “King Richard”
If Will Smith doesn’t win Best Actor? My lord. There will be hell to pay.
7 “Dune”
That Denis Villeneuve snub in Best Director is still a bit hard to believe.
8 “CODA”
Another Sundance world premiere Best Picture success story. Now, can it win anything?
9 “Licorice Pizza”
Is this finally Paul Thomas Anderson‘s Oscar moment in Original Screenplay? He better hit the circuit if he wants it.
10 “Nightmare Alley”
In the future, may we suggest you don’t doubt the influence, appeal, or AMPAS appreciation of Mr. Guillermo del Toro?