A lot has been written about Nate Parker and “The Birth of a Nation” over the past few months. And, you may be sick of reading about it for numerous reasons. But now that the film has opened in theaters across the nation it’s time to revisit where it stands in the context of the box office and awards season.
Last January, at the end of its Sundance Film Festival world premiere, a cascade of people stood up in a euphoric standing ovation to celebrate Parker’s much anticipated historical drama. I remember looking at the audience around me being slightly surprised (i.e., “slightly”) that the picture had gotten such a rapturous response because I was not one of those people. It’s not that I thought the movie was bad (I didn’t), but it wasn’t necessarily amazing either. There were two story lines at play at the time, however.
First, ‘Birth’ had already been hyped up as an anecdote for the #OscarsSoWhite controversy which had turned into a media firestorm less than two weeks beforehand. The audience and media were hoping Parker’s indie passion project could be the film the industry was looking for not as a quick fix to the problem, but not not a quick fix to the problem.The movie was immediately transformed into a torchbearer for an entire filmmaking community, an African American passion project that would show Hollywood the sort of films they should be making.
Second, it was widely unreported and perhaps unnoticed, but the friends and family contingent for ‘Birth”s premiere was much larger than other films I’ve seen in over a decade of attending the festival. Sundance’s Eccles theater usually fills a good portion of its lower quarter with members close to the filmmakers and producers. ‘Birth’’s party filled seats in a good half beyond that into the main orchestra and, honestly, you’d expect that for a production that included 30 producers and even more silent financiers who were in attendance. Members of the crew, a significant portion of the cast and their significant others were also on hand. It felt at times like you were attending a friends and family screening. Parker had spent years of his life trying to get this film off the ground and they wanted to celebrate its first screening. This isn’t revisionist history, by the way. A number of reporters tweeted this out during the event, but no one really paid attention.
This is not to discount the people on hand who were moved by the film, many were. But the fact it did not receive as emotional reaction eight months later at TIFF — its first public screening since Park City — was slightly telling.
As we all know, a bidding war broke out following the premiere and the filmmakers chose Fox Searchlight’s slightly lower bid (a record $17 million) over competing Netflix, Paramount and Sony bids, among others, because of their expertise in conducting Oscar campaigns. Not only does Searchlight have three recent Best Picture winners to their credit, the comparable “12 Years A Slave,” “Birdman” and “Slumdog Millionaire,” but the mini-major has few peers in their ability to make significant profit off their awards season films. Searchlight titles such as “Black Swan” ($329 million global), ‘Slumdog’ ($377 million global), “Juno” ($143 million domestic), ’12 Years’ ($187 million global), “The Descendants” ($177 million global), “Crazy Heart” ($39 million domestic) and, most recently, “Brooklyn” ($38 million domestic) have all exceeded box office expectations because of the company’s talent in picking the right films at the right time for Oscar. Even if you were to remove the early critical acclaim that was a big part of Searchlight’s eventual awards season plan for ‘Birth,’ this is the sort of movie the company could take to the Academy Awards finish line.
No matter what your personal opinion of Parker, it’s hard to argue that he isn’t a very talented actor and, more importantly, a filmmaker with a decidedly commercial perspective. ‘Birth’ is a prestige film, but Parker’s directorial style gives it a consumer sheen that had many believing it could open wide with an audience response proportionally close to “Straight Outta Compton” the year prior. Now, before you remark, “But that film was about a cross generational hip hop group set in mostly modern times,” know that I won’t argue that point with you. However, ‘Straight Outta’ proved that with a specific marketing outreach an African American led film without Tyler Perry, Kevin Hart or Will Smith involved could have a massive debut. Searchlight was counting on a film that played to African American moviegoers, that appealed to religious audiences and was already tagged as the “Best Picture frontrunner” to start a theatrical run that would more than justify the record Sundance price tag (and remember, Sundance breakout “Precious” earned $63 million global). And based on the social media response to the movie’s first teaser trailer there was no reason to believe that wouldn’t come to pass. Then August came.
We won’t spend any time here rehashing the specifics of Parker’s rape case. You can find enough on that from numerous outlets with a simple Google search. What the revelations about the events that night, the victim’s passing (something Parker insists he did not know about) and Parker’s own public reaction to questions about the case did was scuttle Searchlight’s opportunity to open the film immediately to a wide, crossover audience. Almost every time Parker tried to talk about the issue it seemed to make it worse. And whenever there was a positive (the back-to-back TIFF screenings for instance), the case would reappear in a negative way for the campaign (the official TIFF press conference that focused more on the case than the movie). Parker didn’t help his cause with appearances last week on “60 Minutes,” “Good Morning America” (with Robin Roberts trying to throw him an out from this message by wondering if he should just apologizing for his actions 17 years ago) and “The Steve Harvey Show” (Parker trying to blame the media for writing about the story in the first place). Frankly, Parker and Searchlight were lucky the Summer Olympics and the most combative and dirty presidential campaign in history were on going when this “scandal” broke or the fallout could have been insanely worse. You would have seen the story trotted out on cable news networks for weeks.
On Friday, “Birth of A Nation” finally arrived in theaters and there were, shockingly, some lights of hope bursting through the public relations nightmare.
The film itself was getting the positive critical word it deserved. The reviews out of Sundance were simply too gushing and the reaction at TIFF after the scandal hit were probably a little too tough. ‘Birth’’s Metacritic grade is at a 68 and if you look at the individual reviews by date you’ll see the shocking disparity between Sundance and today. That being said, major outlets across the nation such as Entertainment Weekly, Rolling Stone, USA Today, The Washington Post and the Philadelphia Inquirer all came out strongly for it.
‘Birth’ also earned an A Cinemscore grade from audiences and traditionally that means it should get great word of mouth. If you take into account ‘Birth’’s $7 million opening weekend in just 2,105 theaters that could lead to weekend drops of just 30-40% over the following weeks (and makes a $25-30 million domestic gross possible). And, moreover, that wide release for ‘Birth’ would have been considered a win if the film had been acquired for just $8-10 million instead of $17. Is that enough for Searchlight to eventually break even? Probably not, but the results could have been much, much worse.
As for Oscar, that’s probably the campaign where ‘Birth’ has lost the most. Parker’s epic went from Best Picture frontrunner to likely not even earning a nomination. Why you ask? It’s callous to describe it in these terms, but the media’s coverage of Parker’s past has given Academy members an excuse to not watch the ‘Birth’ screener that will eventually end up on their doorstep. Most Academy members catch up on contenders via screener and by Christmas it’s usually a big pile that would make the staunchest cineophile weary. With the early rapturous reviews tempered, box office that is certainly not blockbuster and the expected lack of critics groups’ attention the “Birth” campaign is counting on word of mouth in the industry to get the 400 or so votes its needs to land a Best Picture nomination. That’s a tough mountain to climb if a majority of members feel they can now ignore it.
That being said a comeback is always possible. You hope enough SAG members watch to give Aja Naomi King a shot at a Best Supporting Actress nod. You hope Francine Jamison-Tanchuck is given the attention she deserves from the Costume branch. Henry Jackman’s score shouldn’t be ignored either. But, the individual category hopes for Parker himself? That’s one Hail Mary we’re not sure anyone can catch at this point.
What do you think of “Birth of a Nation’s” Oscar chances? Share your thoughts below.
Gregory Ellwood’s Current Oscar Predictions:
Best Picture
Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing – Coming Soon
Cinematography – Coming Soon
Animated Feature Film – Coming Soon
Foreign Language Film – Coming Soon
Documentary Feature – Coming Soon
Original Score – Coming Soon
Original Song – Coming Soon
Costumes – Coming Soon
Makeup and Hairstyling – Coming Soon
Visual Effects – Coming Soon
Sound Mixing – Coming Soon
Sound Editing – Coming Soon
For more Oscar and industry insight follow Gregory Ellwood on Twitter @TheGregoryE.