And, finally, the pandemic delayed 2021 Oscar season is just days away from a merciful end. Don’t blame the films. There were great performances, exemplary craftsmanship, and notable artistic achievements on display. Unfortunately, this virtual season sucked much of the camaraderie and love for the art form out from under the proceedings. And while longtime frontrunner “Nomadland” looks like it will pull out the Best Picture win like an Olympic marathon champion, there are several categories that are shockingly too close to call. Yes, there will be drama and high anxiety during the 93rd Academy Awards. That’s gotta count for something, right?
READ MORE: Oscars Producers Make Their Case For A ‘Film’ Not TV Show Ceremony
The shorts are always quite difficult to call and even more so with the increasingly international membership demonstrating their influence across the board. The bigger question marks are around Best Actress and Best Original Song. The former is arguably one of the best fields in the award’s history, while the latter has been a crapshoot of weak contenders for months.
READ MORE: Oscars Disappointingly Move Original Song Performances To This Year’s Pre-Show
One thing we know for sure? Netflix will win its most Oscars ever. It just might not be in the categories it was hoping for at the beginning of the season.
READ MORE: We’ve Got A Real Oscar Race For Best Actress But Best Picture? Well…[Contender Countdown]
Keeping all that in mind, here are some predictions from a wary prognosticator ready to go back to the movies and start this annual race anew.
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ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Sacha Baron Cohen, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Leslie Odom, Jr. “One Night in Miami”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Lakeith Stanfield, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Who will win: Daniel Kaluuya
Who should win: Daniel Kaluuya
Upset: Paul Raci
Lowdown: “Sound of Metal’s” Paul Raci had his moment at the Independent Spirit Awards, but Daniel Kaluuya should easily win this for his standout role in “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Even with his co-star and the film’s lead, Lakeith Stanfield, strangely nominated in this supporting category by his peers.
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Maria Bakalova, “Borat Subsequent Moviefilm”
Olivia Colman, “The Father”
Glenn Close, “Hillbilly Elegy”
Amanda Seyfried, “Mank”
Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Who will win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Who should win: Yuh-Jung Youn
Upset: Olivia Colman
Lowdown: The “Minari” star has won the SAG Award, the BAFTA Award, and the Spirit Award for this category. She’s not about to lose now.
SOUND
“Greyhound”
“Mank”
“News of the World”
“Soul”
“Sound of Metal”
Who will win: “Sound of Metal”
Who should win: “Soul” or “Sound of Metal”
Upset: “Soul”
Lowdown: “Sound of Metal” should pick up its first Oscar of the night in this newly combined category formerly known as Sound Mixing and Sound Editing. And, hey, it’s in the name, right?
COSTUME DESIGN
Alexandra Byrne, “Emma”
Bina Daigeler, “Mulan”
Trish Summerville, “Mank”
Ann Roth, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Massimo Cantini Parrini, “PInnoccio”
Who will win: Ann Roth
Who should win: Ann Roth or Biana Daigeler
Upset: Biana Daigeler
Lowdown: There is a false industry assumption that the legendary Ann Roth has multiple Oscars. In fact, she shockingly has just five nominations and one win to her name. After Sunday, she’ll have two.
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Soul”
Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, “Mank”
Emile Mosseri, “Minari”
James Newton Howard, “News of the World”
Terrance Blanchard, “Da 5 Bloods”
Who will win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
Who should win: Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, or Emile Mosseri
Upset: Emile Mosseri
Lowdown: Personally, we wouldn’t be upset with an Emile Mosseri upset for “Minari,” but Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, and Atticus Ross will easily win this for “Soul.”
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
“Burrow”
“Genius Loci”
“If Anything Happens to You”
“Opera”
“Yes-People”
Who will win: “If Anything Happens to You.”
Who should win: “Genius Loci.”
Upset: “Burrow”
Lowdown: Short films are a strange beast where a public relations campaign can help you win more than other categories. Netflix has done a nice job keeping “If Anything Happens To You” in the press. It also doesn’t hurt that has Laura Dern as an executive producer championing it. That being said, this is crazy close, and you can argue “Happens” is just too on the nose with animation that isn’t impressive enough for a win. That means that “Burrow,” which many members may have already seen on Disney+ with their kids, could take it instead. It’s honestly a flip ’em.
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
“Feeling Through”
“The Letter Room”
“The Present”
“Two Distant Strangers”
“White Eye”
Who will win: “Feeling Through”
Who should win: “Feeling Through”
Upset: “Two Distant Strangers” or “The Letter Room”
Lowdown: “Feeling Through” is the least heralded but arguably the most captivating of this year’s nominees. Of course, it doesn’t have Netflix billboards promoting it all over LA like “Two Distant Strangers” or the star power of Oscar Isaac in “The Letter Room.” It sticks with you, though, and that’s usually all that matters.
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
“Borat Subsequent Moviefilm: Delivery of Prodigious Bribe to American Regime for Make Benefit Once Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan” Screenplay by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Peter Baynham & Erica Rivinoja & Dan Mazer & Jena Friedman & Lee Kern; Story by Sacha Baron Cohen & Anthony Hines & Dan Swimer & Nina Pedrad
“The Father” Screenplay by Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
“Nomadland” Written for the screen by Chloé Zhao
“One Night in Miami…” Screenplay by Kemp Powers
“The White Tigers,” Written for the screen by Ramin Bahrani
Who will win: Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller
Who should win: Chloé Zhao
Upset: Chloé Zhao (although not really an upset)
Lowdown: A few weeks ago, Chloé Zhao was the odds on favorite to win this (especially after taking the USC Scripter Award). Times change, and as more voters have watched “The Father,” its profile has grown. That’s one reason it was an upset winner at BAFTA in this category, and we now expect Christopher Hampton and Florian Zeller to be rewarded on Oscar night as well.
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
“Judas and the Black Messiah” Screenplay by Will Berson & Shaka King; Story by Will Berson & Shaka King and Kenny Lucas & Keith Lucas
“Minari” Written by Lee Isaac Chung
“Promising Young Woman,” Written by Emerald Fennell
“Sound of Metal” Screenplay by Darius Marder & Abraham Marder; Story by Darius Marder & Derek Cianfrance
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” Written by Aaron Sorkin
Who will win: Emerald Fennell
Who should win: Emerald Fennell or Lee Isaac Chung
Upset: Aaron Sorkin
Lowdown: Listen, Aaron Sorkin has an excellent chance to win here, but there is a passion for “Promising Young Woman” within the Academy. It’s been evident since December, and it’s why the Focus Features release landed five key nominations (the five nods you need to win Best Picture) in the first place. The film’s star, Carey Mulligan, could benefit from that love in the Best Actress race, but it’s more likely they reward Emerald Fennell for Original Screenplay instead.
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Gary Oldman, “Mank”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Father”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman
Who should win: Riz Ahmed
Upset: Anthony Hopkins or Riz Ahmed
Lowdown: Anthony Hopkins won the BAFTA Award. Riz Ahmed surprised at the Spirits. Will AMPAS members really chose either of them over Chadwick Boseman? We still say no.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Andra Day, “The United States vs. Billie Holiday”
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Vanessa Kirby, “Pieces of a Woman”
Who will win: Viola Davis
Who should win: Any of them
Upset: Frances McDormand or Carey Mulligan
Lowdown: Now this is a race. Viola Davis with the chance to be a two-time winner. Frances McDormand with the chance to be a three-time winner. Carey Mulligan looking for her first win on her second nomination. Oh, and Andra Day potentially benefiting from a three-way split vote. However, it’s important to remember that in this category, Academy members vote for either the young ingenue (Jennifer Lawrence, Brie Larson, Emma Stone) or the most transformative performance (Meryl Streep, Rene Zellwegger, Charlize Theron). It’s an insanely tough call, but we’re going with Ms. Davis and aren’t confident over it either. If Davis loses, it’s because Mulligan was seen as both ingenue and transformative in a role members have rarely seen her in (contemporary and comedic!). But no SAG Award win and a BAFTA nomination snub? Tough to see Mulligan overcoming that.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Onward”
“Over the Moon”
“Soul”
“Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon”
“Wolfwalkers”
Who will win: “Soul”
Who should win: “Soul” or “Wolfwalkers”
Upset: None
Lowdown: Listen, “Wolfwalkers” is exemplary, but there’s no way “Soul” isn’t the choice here. It was a monster hit for Disney+ and Pixar over the holidays (meaning many members actually saw it) and one of their best original films in decades.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Erik Messerschmidt, “Mank”
Phedon Papamichael, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Dariusz Wolski, “News of the World”
Sean Bobbitt, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Who will win: Joshua James Richards
Who should win: Joshua James Richards or Erik Messerschmidt
Upset: Erik Messerschmidt
Lowdown: The mostly male membership of the ASC rewarded Erik Messerschmidt for “Mank.” He could still triumph here, but Joshua James Richards’ gorgeous landscapes and framing for “Nomadland” should play across the board with the broader AMPAS membership.
DIRECTING
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
David Fincher, “Mank”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Thomas Vinterberg, “Another Round”
Who will win: Chloe Zhao
Who should win: Chloe Zhao
Upset: None
Lowdown: It’s Chloe. She’s won every possible honor. If she loses, it’s one of the biggest upsets in Oscar history. And we’re not exaggerating either.
DOCUMENTARY (SHORT SUBJECT)
“Colette”
“A Concerto is a Conversation”
“Do Not Split”
“Hunger Ward”
“A Love Song for Latasha”
Who will win: “Do Not Split”
Who should win: Any of them really
Upset: Any of them really, but maybe “A Concerto is a Conversation.”
Lowdown: This is an incredibly tough call. Any of the five could justifiably win, but there is something about depicting the Hong Kong protest movement in “Do Not Split” that is utterly harrowing. That being said, “A Concerto is a Conversation” is the shortest of the five, and that timestamp is listed on the Academy screener site. Many members don’t watch all of them. Do you think they clicked on it? My reasoning for “Do Not Split”? Those that watch all of them will likely vote for it the most.
DOCUMENTARY (FEATURE)
“Collective”
“Crip Camp
“The Mole Agent”
“My Octopus Teacher”
“Time”
Who will win: “My Octopus Teacher”
Who should win: “Time” or “Collective”
Upset: “Time” or “Collective”
Lowdown: I hope I’m wrong with this one. In a year with so many excellent docs, “My Octopus Teacher” shouldn’t have even been nominated. That’s no disrespect to the filmmakers behind it, just a recognition that “Time” and “Collective” are on another level. That being said, “My Octopus Teacher” plays to viewers better than those two critically acclaimed players. However, if, however, “Collective” wins, the international members put their stamp on this year’s ceremony.
FILM EDITING
Alan Baumgarten, “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Mikkel E.G. Nielsen, “Sound of Metal”
Frédéric Thoraval, “Promising Young Woman”
Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Yorgos Lamprinos, “The Father”
Who will win: Mikkel E.G. Nielsen
Who should win: Mikkel E.G. Nielsen or Chloe Zhao
Upset: Chloe Zhao, Alan Baumgarten or Yorgos Lamprinos
Lowdown: Alan Baumgarten and Chloe Zhao have split numerous honors, but we think BAFTA winner Mikkel E.G. Nielsen takes it for “Sound of Metal.”
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“Another Round” (Denmark)
“Better Days” (Hong Kong)
“Collective,” (Romania)
“The Man Who Sold His Skin,” (Tunisia)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegonova)
Who will win: “Another Round”
Who should win: “Another Round,” “Collective,” or “Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Upset: “Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Lowdown: The fantastic “Quo Vadis, Aida?” could seriously upset, but Thomas Vinterberg’s directing nomination demonstrates just how respected “Another Round” is. Sigh, if it has a distributor with bigger pockets, we could have been talking about Best Actor nominee Mads Mikkelsen.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Emma”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Hillbilly Elegy”
“Mank”
“Pinocchio”
Who will win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Who should win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Upset: None
Lowdown: They ain’t giving it to “Hillbilly Elegy” that’s for sure. This one’s going to the team behind “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom.”
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
“Fight For You” from Judas and the Black Messiah
Music by H.E.R. and Dernst Emile II; Lyric by H.E.R. and Tiara Thomas
“Hear My Voice” from The Trial of the Chicago 7
Music by Daniel Pemberton; Lyric by Daniel Pemberton and Celeste Waite
“Husavik” from Eurovision Song Contest: The Story of Fire Saga
Music and Lyric by Savan Kotecha, Fat Max Gsus and Rickard Göransson
“Io Sì (Seen)” from The Life Ahead (La Vita Davanti a Se)
Music by Diane Warren; Lyric by Diane Warren and Laura Pausini
“Speak Now” from One Night in Miami
Music and Lyric by Leslie Odom, Jr. and Sam Ashworth
Who will win: “Husavik”
Who should win: “Fight For You”
Upset: “Speak Now” or “Io Sì (Seen)”
Lowdown: This category is even tougher to consider than Bes Actress. “Fight For You” from “Judas and the Black Messiah” should win, but the campaign has been weak, and it would have benefited from an earlier release. “Io Sì (Seen)” would finally give Diane Warren that Oscar she’s dying for, but is it truly worthy? “Speak Now” could absolutely win, but that would be more of a reflection of admiration for Grammy and Tony Award winner Leslie Odom, Jr. than the song itself. That has us going with…“Husavik” from “Eurovision Song Contest.” The town in Iceland the song refers to has basically done Netflix’s job for them with publicity-friendly stories that have been picked up everywhere. The category overall is another flip ’em, but you gotta pick, and that’s my pick.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“The Father” Production Design: Peter Francis; Set Decoration: Cathy Featherstone
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” Production Design: Mark Ricker; Set Decoration: Karen O’Hara and Diana Stoughton
“Mank” Production Design: Donald Graham Burt; Set Decoration: Jan Pascale
“News of the World” Production Design: David Crank; Set Decoration: Elizabeth Keenan
“Tenet” Production Design: Nathan Crowley; Set Decoration: Kathy Lucas
Who will win: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale
Who should win: Donald Graham Burt and Jan Pascale
Upset: None
Lowdown: “Mank” is taking this one with votes to spare. Moving on…
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Love and Monsters”
“The Midnight Sky”
“Mulan”
“Tenet”
“The One and Only Ivan”
Who will win: “Tenet”
Who should win: “Tenet”
Upset: “Mulan” or “The Midnight Sky”
Lowdown: Christopher Nolan’s “Tenet” wasn’t even uploaded to the Academy screening site, but enough members have seen it to give it the win in what is a historically weak field. So weak, in fact, that if “The Midnight Sky” pulls it out, it’s basically for a less impressive version of the effects in “Gravity,” which won this category seven years ago.
BEST PICTURE
“The Father”
“Judas and the Black Messiah”
“Mank”
“Minari”
“Nomadland”
“Sound of Metal”
“Promising Young Woman”
“The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Who will win: “Nomadland”
Who should win: “Nomadland” or “Minari”
Upset: “Minari,” “The Father,” or “Trial of the Chicago 7”
Lowdown: Could “The Trial of the Chicago 7,” which won the SAG ensemble honor, win here? Sure. Could “Minari” or “The Father” take speak to the heart of enough members to clinch those necessary second-place votes to win? Sure. Is “Nomadland,” which won the PGA, the DGA, and BAFTA, pretty much your winner, though? Yep.
The 93rd Oscars will be held on Sunday, April 25, and will be televised live on ABC at 5 PM PT/8 PM ET.