Yesterday the world finally learned of a decision that Fox Searchlight has wanted to land on for months: Olivia Colman is going lead for her critically acclaimed performance in Yorgos Lanthimos’ “The Favourite.” It was a decision many pundits such as myself had questioned and may competing consultants had fretted over. Colman is spectacular in the period drama and would be considered a frontrunner if she was in either the Best Supporting Actress or Best Actress category for the Academy Awards. You could even argue that both she and her co-stars Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz should all be campaigning in the Best Actress race (well, Weisz is pretty locked into Supporting, but I am sympathetic to the argument for Stone). Moreover, now that Colman is officially being pushed for Best Actress it tells us much more about the competitive races for both a nod and a win in each category.
The biggest winners are the ladies campaigning in the Best Supporting Actress field. The frontrunners are now “Vice’s” Amy Adams (it’s not speculation, word is her work is absolutely awards-worthy) and “If Beale Street Could Talk’s” Regina King. Adams has the fact she’s been nominated five times before without a win and a catalog of exemplary work she hasn’t earned nods for such as “Her,” “Enchanted,” “Julie & Julia,” “Nocturnal Animals” and, most notably, “Arrival” as serious ammunition. For the legion of Adams fans living and breathing on her eventually winning an Oscar this February’s telecast may be your moment.
King, on the other hand, has never been nominated before but is an industry favorite having taken home three Emmy Awards over the past four years. She’s sterling in “Beale Street” delivering one of the more emotional performances in the film. It will be a close race, with potentially only Nicole Kidman (“Boy Erased”) able to crash the party for an upset win. Supporting Actress is still a major battle for just a nomination, however, with Elizabeth Debecki (“Widows”), Claire Foy (“First Man”), Margot Robbie (“Mary, Queen of Scots”) and both Stone and Weisz all duking it out. The question isn’t “if” there will be snubs, the question will be “Who were they and why?”
As for Best Actress, it now gets even more interesting with Coleman in the mix. The future “Crown” star arguably is the slight frontrunner versus “A Star is Born’s” Lady Gaga, but no one should ever discount Viola Davis‘ chances. The “Widows” star is actress many believe should be in the two-time winner club and her work in Steve McQueen’s dramatic thriller is more than worthy enough for a win. Also hoping to crack the field are Julia Roberts (“Ben is Back”), Nicole Kidman (“Destroyer”), Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”), Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”), Felicity Jones (“On the Basis of Sex”), Saoirse Ronan (“Mary, Queen of Scots”) and, potentially, Glenn Close (“The Wife”). One stealth nominee to look out for is “Mary Poppins Returns” star Emily Blunt. Sources tell me the Rob Marshall-directed sequel is reportedly much stronger than anticipated (and these are reliable sources, not hype-loving theater owners), the film might make you get slightly choked up (have we noted how key that is with Oscar voters?) and that Blunt is simply superb overall. So, don’t dismiss “Poppins” until there’s a legitimate reason to.
The key with all of these contenders, of course, are the movies themselves. Members have to want to watch them either in theaters or via their holiday screening pile. You might already have picked a few titles AMPAS and guild members may find a way to avoid. Then again, it would also help if SAG nominating committee members started attending screenings set up specifically for them, but that’s another discussion entirely.
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Up to date Oscar predictions:
Best Picture
Best Director
Actress
Actor
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Foreign Language Film