The Oscar nominations are finally here. AMPAS members are collectively ready to unveil some surprises, some snubs, and, most notably, make history. When the nominations are announced insanely early on Tuesday morning Netflix may become the first studio or distributor to land three Best Picture nominees in one year in over five decades. And even more potentially historic, Jonas Poher Rasmussen’s “Flee” could become the first film to earn International Film Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature nominations (Spoiler: We’re predicting it). But those are likely only tertiary concerns in regards to the biggest question of all: Who will eventually win Best Picture?
READ MORE: “Dune” leads 2022 BAFTA Awards with 11 nominations
The nominations will likely reveal what we’ve known for a few months, Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” and Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog” have the best shot of winning Best Picture. But, there is a chance Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Licorice Pizza” lands key nominations in every category and emerges as a true contender. Or maybe Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune” does the same with an unexpected acting nomination. Whatever the case, AMPAS members will have over a month to ponder their selections as final voting doesn’t begin until March 17.
Keeping all that in mind, here are some Oscar nominations predictions to consider before Leslie Jordan and Tracee Ellis Ross take one for the team and make some nominees very happy on Tuesday morning.
Note: We do not predict the shorts categories until the final voting stage.
BEST DIRECTOR
Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”
Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”
Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”
Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”
Denis Villeneuve, “Dune”
Almost there: Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story,” Joachim Trier, “Worst Person in the World,” Adam McKay, “Don’t Look Up”
Lowdown: There are almost 10,000 members in AMPAS, but just 531 in the Directing Branch. This is a category where international influence is prominent and five of the last 15 nominated directors were for films not in the English language. That being said, as in most years, it looks like only one slot will go to a filmmaker who didn’t receive a 2022 DGA awards nomination. Our bet for the DGA player who gets knocked out is Spielberg (last nominated in 2013 for “Munich“) but Branagh is on very shaky ground after getting a snub from the equivalent BAFTA branch last week. Hamaguchi should make the cut for the celebrated “Drive My Car,” but Trier could also surprise.
BEST ACTOR
Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Don’t Look Up”
Andrew Garfield, “tick, tick…BOOM!”
Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Will Smith, “King Richard”
Almost there: Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos,” Nicholas Cage, “Pig,” Simon Rex, “Red Rocket”
Lowdown: Bardem may duplicate his SAG Awards nomination, but we’re betting DiCaprio is the fifth player after a surprise BAFTA nod (likely by popular vote in a mix of popular and juried noms). There is some buzz surrounding Cage and Rex, but that seems like a bit of a reach at this point.
BEST ACTRESS
Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”
Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
Lady Gaga, “House of Gucci”
Jennifer Hudson, “Respect”
Renate Reinsve, “Worst Person in the World”
Almost there: Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos,” Penelope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers,” Alana Haim, “Licorice Pizza,” Rachel Zegler, “West Side Story,” Kristen Stewart, “Spencer”
Lowdown: There are 10 performances with a legitimate shot at a nomination. 10! This is the toughest field to predict since Best Actor in 2015. The only lock in our opinion is Colman and even she was snubbed by BAFTA last week. The difference here is that the branch does have voters select 1-5. There is weighted voting at play. With such a large field that should result in some genuine snubs. That being said, likely a pick ’em after Colman and, surprise, Hudson (the steady summer player that has somehow flown under the radar).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bradley Cooper, “Licorice Pizza”
Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”
Troy Kotsur, “CODA”
Jesse Plemmons, “The Power of the Dog”
Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog”
Almost there: Jaime Dornan, “Belfast,” Jared Leto, “House of Gucci,” Mike Faist, “West Side Story”
Lowdown: Either “Belfast” or “Power of the Dog” should land two nominees in this category. We’re betting on Plemmons, but Dornan could easily make the cut as well.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Caitriona Balfe, “Belfast”
Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”
Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”
Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard”
Ruth Negga, “Passing”
Almost there: Marlee Matlin, “CODA,” Cate Blanchett, “Nightmare Alley,” Ann Dowd, “Mass,” Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”
Lowdown: Blanchett and Dowd were SAG and BAFTA players, respectfully, but we think Ellis takes the fifth slot. Wouldn’t surprise us if previous winners Blanchett or Matlin knock someone else out though.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Being The Ricardos”
“Belfast”
“Don’t Look Up”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
Almost there: “Parallel Mothers,” “The French Dispatch,” “A Hero,” “The Worst Person in the World”
Lowdown: Not expecting any surprises here and if there are it means a lot more upsets in other categories.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“CODA”
“Drive My Car”
“Dune”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Lost Daughter”
Almost there: “West Side Story,” “Passing,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” “Nightmare Alley,”
Lowdown: This category is a bit more competitive than Original Screenplay with Tony and Pulitzer Winner Tony Kushner and multi-Oscar winner Joel Coen also having legitimate shots at making the field.
EDITING
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“Licorice Pizza”
“The Power of the Dog”
“No Time To Die”
Almost there: “Summer of Soul,” “Don’t Look Up,” “West Side Story”
Lowdown: “Summer of Soul” is the wildcard here after its BAFTA editing nomination, a category where “Power” was snubbed. A reminder, this is the kingmaker for winning Best Picture. You don’t need to win the Editing Oscar to win Best Picture, but you most almost always need the nod.
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Power of the Dog”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Almost there: “West Side Story,” “No Time To Die,” “The Green Knight”
Lowdown: We’re going with the ASC five.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Dune”
“The French Dispatch”
“Nightmare Alley”
“The Tragedy of Macbeth”
“West Side Story”
Almost there: “The Power of the Dog,” “Cyrano,” “Cruella”
Lowdown: “Cruella” has a shot, but this is likely the nominated field. If “Power” somehow makes it, just crown it for Best Picture now.
COSTUME DESIGN
“Cyrano”
“Cruella”
“Dune”
“Nightmare Alley”
“West Side Story”
Almost there: “House of Gucci,” “The French Dispatch,” “The Green Knight,” “The Power of the Dog”
Lowdown: “Cruella,” “Dune,” “West Side Story” and “Nightmare Alley” are likely in. We’re picking “Cyrano” over “Gucci,” but it’s gonna be close.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Cruella”
“Cyrano”
“Dune”
“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”
“House of Gucci”
Almost there: “The Suicide Squad,” “Nightmare Alley,” “No Time To Die,” “Coming 2 America”
Lowdown: Word is there were a number of films that had difficult makeup bake-off presentations. At least two are in the “Almost there” category, but we’ll let you guess which two.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“Dune”
“Godzilla vs. Kong”
“No Time To Die”
“Matrix Resurrections”
“Shang-Chi and the Twelve Rings”
Almost there: “Free Guy,” “Ghostbusters: Afterlife,” “Eternals”
Lowdown: “Shang-Chi” could easily miss out thanks to block voting from Industrial Light and Magic voters for “Free Guy,” “Ghostbusters” or even “Eternals” (a nomination we would be more than O.K. with to be honest).
SOUND
“A Quiet Place Part II”
“Belfast”
“Dune”
“No Time To Die”
“West Side Story”
Almost there: “tick, tick…BOOM!,” “The Power of the Dog,” “Spider-Man: No Way Home”
Lowdown: Could two musicals make it? Hasn’t happened in a sound category since 1965.
ORIGINAL SCORE
“Dune”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Encanto”
“The French Dispatch”
“The Power of the Dog”
Almost there: “Being the Ricardos,” “Spencer,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth”
Lowdown: Daniel Pemberton could make it for “Ricardos,” but we think the branch is going to fully embrace “Encanto” instead.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Be Alive” from “King Richard”
“Dos Oruguitas” from “Encanto”
“Just Look Up” from “Don’t Look Up”
“No Time To Die” from “No Time to Die”
“So May We Start?” from “Annette”
Almost there: “Here I Am (Singing My Way Home)” from “Respect,” “Guns Go Bang” from “The Harder They Fall,” “Beyond The Shore” from “CODA”
Lowdown: “No Time To Die” and “Dos Oruguitas” are the only locks. The rest? Nothing would surprise us.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
“A Hero” (Iran)
“Drive My Car” (Japan)
“Flee” (Denmark)
“Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom” (Bhutan)
“Worst Person in the World” (Norway)
Almost there: “Plaza Cathedral” (Panama), “The Good Boss” (Spain), “Lamb” (Iceland), “Compartment No. 6” (Finland), “Playground” (Belgium)
Lowdown: Italy’s “Hand of God” somehow became polarizing to members (not sure how) and many pundits are counting out Iran but never bet against Asghar Farhadi in this category. Ever.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
“Ascension”
“Flee”
“The Rescue”
“Summer of Soul (…Or, When the Revolution Could Not Be Televised)”
“Procession”
Almost there: “The First Wave,” “Attica,” “The Velvet Underground”
Lowdown: The Documentary branch loves to throw some curveballs. Snubbing “Summer of Soul” or “Flee” won’t be one of them.
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
“Belle”
“Encanto”
“Flee”
“Luca”
“The Mitchells vs. The Machines”
Almost there: “Raya and the Last Dragon,” “Sing 2”
Lowdown: It’s hard to convince me that “Sing 2” will get nominated when the first “Sing” wasn’t. “Raya and the Last Dragon” could give Disney Animation Studios two nominees, but we’re betting on previous Oscar nominee Mamoru Hosoda landing a nod for “Belle” instead.
BEST PICTURE
“Belfast”
“CODA”
“Don’t Look Up”
“Dune”
“King Richard”
“Licorice Pizza”
“The Power of the Dog”
“tick, tick…BOOM!”
“West Side Story”
“The Worst Person in the World”
Almost there: “Being the Ricardos,” “No Time To Die,” “The Tragedy of Macbeth,” “Drive My Car,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Lost Daughter”
Lowdown: Here’s the thing. Either “Being the Ricardos” is going to be a “thing” with AMPAS members or it’s not. There really isn’t any in-between. If Kidman and Bardem are announced as nominees in their respective categories on Tuesday morning then you can bet it’s absolutely the 10th nominee. There is a chance “tick, tick…BOOM!” gets knocked out, but it’s likely safe thanks to Netflix’s muscle. Our 10th prediction, however, is for “Worst Person in the World” to make a shocking comeback. Too many members have voiced their love for it in the past few weeks and we personally know a significant number who have it as their no. 1 film. That may not be enough, but if not “Ricardos” or “Worst” it’s a genuine coin flip between “No Time” (which disappointed at BAFTA after a fantastic longlist and Oscar shortlist showing), “Tragedy” (seemingly on fumes), “Lost Daughter” (the indie darling that isn’t an indie), “NIghtmare” (probably found its fanbase too late) and “Drive My Car” (which didn’t get the major media campaign it needed to crack through).
The 2022 Academy Award nominations will be revealed beginning at 5:18 PT/8:18 ET tomorrow. The 94th Oscar will be held on March 27 and broadcast live on ABC.