It’s been almost a week since the 71st Festival de Cannes came to a close and the festival bubble is starting to dissipate. That means the realization of what we assumed before it all began comes into clearer focus: the 2019 Oscar season really isn’t starting until the Venice, Telluride and Toronto trifecta. Foreign Language Film category notwithstanding, of course.
Outside of “Black Panther” not one legit Best Picture contender that has screened publicly up to this point. And, as you’ve no likely heard, a ton of Bradley Cooper’s good friends have already seen “A Star is Born,” but it appears Warner Bros. has convinced the director to control himself and put a lid on future screenings at least for a few more months. Most years Sundance would have at least two contenders up for discussion by now. This year alone 2017 debuts “Call Me By Your Name” and “Get Out” both earned Best Picture nods. Unfortunately, after January’s disappointing slate it looks like Sundance won’t have a nominee for the first time since 2014 and only the third time since 2010. And that brings us to Cannes.
Europe’s key festival started the decade off strong with six nominees between 2010 and 2012 (they had three alone in 2011), but in the five years since they have only had three including “Mad Max: Fury Road” which opened in the United States a week prior to its Cannes debut. It also goes without saying that the festival has also provided nominees in numerous other categories during this period thanks to “Carol,” “The Lobster,” “Sicario,” “Amy,” “Two Days, One Night,” “Inside Llewyn Davis” and “Foxcatcher,” among others. That’s honestly how Spike Lee’s “BlacKkKlansman” (Adapted Screenplay) and Paweł Pawlikowski’s “Cold War” (Directing, Best Actress, Original Screenplay, Cinematography) fit in as the festival’s best chances for Academy recognition, again, outside of FLF.
“Cold War” is perhaps the most intriguing player because if Amazon Studios can mount the right campaign it could – and major emphasis on “could” – find its way into the Best Picture conversation. Joanna Kulig gives a revelatory, star-making performance and the romantic epic could speak to not only the increasing international contingent of Academy voters, but older members who fell for the nostalgia of “The Artist” (a fine movie, but hardly as nuanced as Pawlikowski’s achievement). It’s a long shot as many competing consultants will peg it as just as another Foreign Language player, but if it can catch a spark at Telluride with the members there? Watch out.
Of course, if the Documentary category is usually dominated by Sundance premieres it’s no surprise the Foreign Language category is often filled with Cannes players. 2019 will be intriguing as Poland’s “Cold War” and Lebanon’s “Capernaum” are very solid frontrunners to make the final five. The Palme d’Or winner, “Shoplifters,” is a crowd pleaser and could be Japan’s first nominee since “Departures” won in 2009. Egypt’s “Yomeddine” earned mixed reviews and doesn’t have a U.S. distributor yet, but has a shot to make the shortlist as a tearjerker. Belgium will no doubt submit “Girl,” but that movie will face some pushback on this side of the Atlantic that might hurt its cause. Two critical acclaimed players, Columbia’s “Birds of Passage” and South Korea’s “Burning” (assuming its the nominee) are the sort of film that will get saved by a committee vote to make the shortlist. Dare to dream France selects Gapar Noé’s “Climax” as their submission, but with Oliver Assayas’ “Non Fiction” on the way that’s probably unlikely at this point. Italy has a tough call between “Dogman” and “Happy for Lazzaro,” but if they smartly choose the later it probably has a better shot at the shortlist (and an opportunity for major critics groups support).
The unseen juggernaut in this mix is Alfonso Cuaron’s “Roma,” which will no doubt be Mexico’s submission. It was to screen in competition at Cannes before Netflix acquired it. Their involvement shouldn’t affect its FLF hopes as the streaming service earned its first FLF nomination last year for Hungary’s “On Body and Soul.”
The takeaway from both Cannes and Sundance isn’t that the films weren’t good enough at either festival (well, Park City might have been crazy weak), but that none of the premieres were transcendent enough to garner the Academy’s attention beyond, potentially, “Cold War.” And that means a fall festival season that will simply be fast and furious. Are you ready?