Has it occurred to everyone else doing their Oscar watch that this could be the weirdest awards season in recent years? Studio pictures? Unless “Charlie Wilson’s War” or Robert Redford’s “Lion For Lambs” somehow dupe convince Oscar voters they’re worthy (which is always a possibility) there’s very little by way of major studio pictures that seems that it even has half a prayer of Oscar nods. [ed. you’re wildly optimistic and naive]
Now of course, this obviously could be seem like a wildly naive position to take; garbage has won major awards in the past (“Crash”), and history shows thes lame track record of overrated studio fare (“Million Dollar Baby,” “A Beautiful Mind, “Gladiator, “Shakespeare In Love,” “Braveheart,” “Forrest Gump,” etc.) but it appears to be, so far, the year of the Studio Indie (or Indiewood)- a wildly different beast than the Studio Picture.
But wait, there is at least one Studio Picture that has done mediocre business, has received fairly positive reviews, but has virtually no Oscar buzz whatsoever, yes? Paul Haggis’ (oh no. oh yes!) “In the Valley of Elah” has nothing going for it yet, but when Oscar members need to find something of their own to vote for, this could be the film they lean on heavily.
Now let’s be aware of the misguided campaigns the Academy herd has fallen sway to. One year later these misbegotten cheerleading seem embarrassing. (see “Little Miss Sunshine”). But the Fall Season is dying on the vine, at least box-office wise, so now we see articles (are the studios paying you people to write these??) practically begging for another “Little Miss Sunshine” to come around and this is already giving unexpected boosts to “Juno,” a Fox Indie with feelgood potential (but we think this one’s going to be too dark and twisted to really resonate). The other dark horse, that’s not hip, but perfect Oscarbait that everyone is forgetting (or not really discussing much yet) is the WWII love-story epic “Atonement.” This one has Oscar potential written all over it, and look for it to score multiple nominations when in doubt as it’s classicism (boringness), is signature Academy Award fodder that octegenarian voters get all in a lather about.
Here’s how we see the temperature standing so far (with a bit of what we’ve seen/what we haven’t seen bias) but lord knows these things will change with the winds, trends, the herdthink and strange curried favor (and yes, some of it might be wishful thinking and actual quality performances at this point, as shocking as that may seem).
Hey, if they get desperate enough maybe even nominations will be thrown out to “The Bucket List” and “The Mist.” (Other possible contenders, “Love In The Time Of Cholera” and “The Kite Runner“). Here’s our thoughts, images and order picked at random)
Best Actor Nominations Predictions (So Far…)
George Clooney – Michael Clayton
Brad Pitt – The Assassination of Jesse James
Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
Denzel Washington – American Gangster
Tommy Lee Jones In The Valley of Elah
Best Actress Nomination Predictions (So Far…)
Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There [ed. which she be eligible for actress?]
Kiera Knightley – Atonement
Nicole Kidman – Margot At The Wedding
Charlize Theron – In The Valley Of Elah
Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
Best Supporting Actor Nominations Predictions (So Far…)
Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
Casey Affleck – The Assassination of Jesse James
Benicio Del Toro – Things We Lost In The Fire
Ben Foster – 3:10 To Yuma
Hal Holbrook – Into The Wild
Best Supporting Actress Nomination Predictions (So Far…)
Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
Jennifer Jason-Leigh – Margot At The Wedding
Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Susan Surandon – In the Valley of Elah
Best Director Nomination Predictions (So Far…)
Ridley Scott – American Gangster
Sidney Lumet – Before The Devil Knows Your Dead
Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood
Ethan & Joel Coen – No Country For Old Men
Best Picture Nomination (So Far…)
No Country For Old Men
American Gangster
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Atonement
Other Award Possibilities…
Best Original Score & Songs
Nick Cave And Warren Ellis – The Assassination of Jesse James
Jonny Greenwood – There Will Be Blood
Glenn Hansard and Marketa Irglova – Once
Best Original Screenplay
Margot At The Wedding
There Will Be Blood
I’m Not There
Best Cinematography
The Assassination of Jesse James
No Country For Old Men
Into The Wild
The Diving Bell & The Butterfly
Now remember this is going to change periodically with trends, shifts and change in the wind, opinion. What no “Control,” no ‘Darjeeling,’ no more “I’m Not There” ? This isn’t the independent Spirit Awards people (Don’t be silly, ‘Darjeeling’s not even going to get a screenplay nod, but costumes or set design, maybe…). Meanwhile the goons over at the L.A. Times are rallying behind Tim Burton’s ‘Sweeney Todd’ and we think they’re high as a kite (but we haven’t seen it).