The 2019 Oscars were very good to the programmers of the Cannes Film Festival. After an almost desolate 2018 where it was represented by just a few Foreign Language Film nominations, the French mainstay saw a major turnaround as “BlacKkKlansman” earned a Best Picture nomination, “Cold War” landed Best Dictor and Cinematography nods (outside of an FLF nod) and a historic win for Spike Lee in the Adapted Screenplay category. Based on the films that made waves over the past two weeks it may contribute even more to the awards season conversation than it has since “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “Carol,” “Amy” and “Inside Out” all debuted at the fest.
Obviously, there’s a long way to go. The Best Picture race, in particular, seems incredibly competitive with at least 20 potential nominees on paper (and we’re not counting the films no one will admit aren’t true players yet). But these six titles will definitely make a mark this upcoming awards season one way or another.
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Despite earning zero prizes from the competition committee, Tarantino’s latest drew raves not only from key American critics (including the NYT’s Manohla Dargis and TIME’s Stephanie Zacharek) but a ton of adoration from Academy members on the ground in Cannes. SONY is going to have to deal with some backlash over Tarantino’s curt response to an NYT reporter during the film’s press conference that blew up on social media, but North American critics should embrace it closer to release even more than the contingent traveling overseas. And, trust, this will play with not only Tarantino’s base in the Academy but older members who are nostalgic for the era he’s revisiting. The Best Picture nomination seems very likely with Director, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Costumes, Hair and Makeup, Editing and even Visual Effects are in the mix. The toughest decision for SONY is how to designate its two stars, Leonardo DiCaprio and Brad Pitt. Are they both leads? Is Pitt actually Supporting? You could argue it either way. Oh, and the movie needs to be a hit. If not, making the case for a campaign in the late fall won’t be easy.
“Parasite”
Here’s the thing. If Bong Joon-ho‘s Palme d’Or winner doesn’t earn an International Film nomination (reminder: the problematic “Foreign” Language Film name is no more) they simply need to blow up the process for that category. A South Korean film has never been nominated and many were still shocked “Burning” was snubbed after an avalanche of year-end honors. We’re gonna assume “Parasite” will be safe, but anyone discounting its chances of earning nominations in other categories would be making a grave mistake. That nine-member jury was filled with six invitees to the Academy (Alice Rohrwacher, Yorgos Lantimos, Kelly Reichardt, Elle Fanning, Pawel Pawlikowski and Alejandro González Iñárritu), four of them are members of the Director’s branch. Don’t be surprised if they champion Bong Joon-ho for a Directing nod. Adapted Screenplay is also possible although the only non-English language nominees this century have been “Diving Bell and the Butterfly,” “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” and “The Motorcycle Diaries.” It has not occurred this past decade, however. Cinematography and Production Design are also categories U.S. distributor NEON should go after. It won’t be easy, but there are many more Academy members who have worked with Joon-ho over the years or are fans of his work than you think. Still, a big job ahead for NEON if they go for it (and trust, the South Koreans want to).
“Rocketman”
We’ll say this, Dexter Fletcher’s Elton John musical needs to be a big hit if it has any shot at a Best Picture nod. It may be significantly better reviewed than “Bohemian Rhapsody” (a 73 on Metacritic for “Rocketman” vs. a 49 grade for the Queen biopic), but being perceived as the follow-up means you have to prove yourself even more. What seems more likely is a Best Actor nomination for star Taron Egerton, assuming he has time to campaign. “Rocketman” is also a potential double Sound categories player as well as Costumes, Production Design and Hair and Makeup. But boy does it need to make money.
“A Hidden Life”
Terrence Malick’s latest epic was met with polarizing reviews from critics across the board. This pundit, in particular, is not convinced it couldn’t use a good 45 minutes to an hour cut out of it. That being said, it has some very passionate champions. Fox Searchlight’s brain trust are two of them as the mini-major reportedly outbid acquisition plays from A24, Paramount Pictures and Netflix to secure it. Now, the job is to determine what is needed to land a Best Picture nomination and if Malick can crack the Original Screenplay and Director categories. Based on their press release the studio seems high on the lead performances of August Diehl and Valerie Pachner, but we’re not sure they relatively unknown actors can truly break into the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories respectively.
“Pain and Glory”
Antonio Banderas winning the Best Actor prize at Cannes immediately gives SPC’s campaign to land him his first Oscar nod genuine life. It also helps that Banderas is fantastic and knows how to work the awards circuit. “Pain and Glory” should be Spain’s International Film submission and, at this point, is battling it out for Oscar with the aforementioned “Parasite.” Pedro Almodovar has already won the Original Screenplay category in 2003 for “Talk to Her” and that category is definitely in play for “Pain and Glory” as well. If the Supporting Actress field is weak Penelope Cruz could sneak in, but that’s a reach at this point.
“The Lighthouse”
Robert Eggers’ follow up to “The Witch” won’t come close to that figure’s domestic box office take, but it could earn Oscar nominations for its combative duo played by Robert Pattinson and Willem Dafoe. The former has already proven he can earn an Academy Award nomination in a stylized black and white film (“Shadow of the Vampire” in 2001) and Pattinson has simply never been better. That being said, the A24 drama will be a tough watch for many. It will need tremendous critical support to elevate the performances and make AMPAS members watch their screeners.
“I Lost My Body”
You likely haven’t heard of it, but the Critic’s Week winner is a wondrous animated film that Netflix was smart to acquire for awards season. My review hasn’t published yet, but it will be the one A grade I handed out at Cannes this year (two other films earned A-‘s). It’s a remarkable achievement that should easily land an Animated Film nomination in the usually token non-studio film slot.
The International Film Contenders
Of course, Cannes is the first real festival that allows the International Film submissions to start to come to light. This year we can likely assume the following from the Cannes premieres alone:
South Korea: “Parasite”
Italy: “The Traitor” (unless something surprises at Venice)
Romania: “The Whistlers”
Senegal: “Atlantique”
Belgium: “The Young Ahmed”
Spain: “Pain and Glory”
Palestine: “It Must Be Heaven”
Peru: “Song Without A Name”
Russia: “Beanpole”
Sweden: “And Then We Danced”
Up in the air is Canada, which could submit Xavier Dolan’s “Matthias and Maximine.” Brazil should submit the Un Certain Regard winner “The Invisible Life of Eurídice Gusmão” over Jury Prize winner “Bacurau” as the later may simply be too political for that nation’s often conservative Oscar committee. A large political battle will break out in France over which of three films to submit: Jury winner “Les Miserables,” Screenplay and Queer Palme winner “Portrait of a Lady on Fire” and François Ozon‘s Berlin Silver Bear winner “By the Grace of God.” It’s going to be quite interesting to see who comes out of that scrum alive.