Alright, everyone’s dropping their predictions for the Oscar nominations, so The Playlist is dropping ours. Some picks are probably predictable, but again, this is not a time to be original, if that’s how you perceive Oscar betting, we strongly encourage you to join our Oscar pool so we can rob you of the money you seem too naive to be entitled to.
But here’s always a surprise or two, not because the Academy is trying to be different then say the Globes, the Baftas or what have you (that’s naive thinking), but because it’s a group of some 6,000 people who do not vote together collectively or by committee and make decisions in advance. It’s a particular group from inside the industry and they have a different take on things than critics and audiences. Sure, there is overlap, but they are a different group of individuals. Our format is inspired by Efilm critic Erik Childress who came up with the Alternate, Wishful Thinking, etc. categories. We digress.
Best Supporting Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“Doubt”)
Michael Shannon (“Revolutionary Road”
Robert Downey Jr. (“Tropic Thunder”)
Josh Brolin (“Milk”)
Heath Ledger “(The Dark Knight”)
Alternate: Dev Patel (“Slumdog Millionaire”)
Underdog: James Franco (“Milk”)
Wishful Thinking: Emile Hirsch (“Milk”), Brandon Walters (“Australia”), Eddie Marsan (“Happy-Go-Lucky”), Demián Bichir (“Che”)
This category is likely in the bag. Warner Bros. campaigned for Ledger and it was unnecessary, his performance remains eerie, fascinating and probably iconic. There was strong work done across the board here, Michael Shannon stole every scene he appeared in, Phillip Seymour Hoffman more than held his own opposite Academy darling Meryl Streep and Josh Brolin gave a daunting and complex portrayal, but Ledger’s Joker is in a class of his own.
Note: the SAG 5 included Dev Patel, but we don’t think that’s going to happen.
Best Supporting Actress
Kate Winslet (“The Reader”)
Penelope Cruz (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)
Viola Davis (“Doubt”)
Marisa Tomei (“The Wrestler”)
Taraji P Henson (‘Benjamin Button’)
Alternate: Amy Adams (“Doubt”)
Underdog: Rosemarie Dewitt (“Rachel Getting Married”)
Wishful Thinking: Elsa Zylberstein (“I’ve Loved You So Long”), Vera Farmiga (“Nothing But The Truth”), Rebecca Hall (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)
BAFTA made Kate Winslet seem like the forerunner in every female acting category, but she faces tough competition. Does Viola Davis’ fierce scene in “Doubt,” merit enough screen time to bring home the award? Taraji P Henson delivers the best performance in ‘Button’ (including Brad Pitt’s CGI and wooden acting combo) and Tomei’s aging stripper in “The Wrestler” is genuinely sad, a perfect parallel to Rourke’s character. Yet Cruz’s tempestuous performance single handedly elevated “Vicky Cristina Barcelona.” We’d campaign for a nom for Elsa Zylberstein in the powerful “I’ve Loved You So Long,” but the film is likely outside the Academy’s comfort zone (characters don’t speak English).
Note: the SAG 5 went to Amy Adams before Viola Davis, but we’re flipping that.
Best Adapted Screenplay
John Patrick Shanley (“Doubt”)
Peter Morgan (“Frost/Nixon”)
Justin Haythe (“Revolutionary Road”)
Simon Beaufoy (“Slumdog Millionaire”)
Eric Roth (‘Benjamin Button’)
Alternate: “Changeling”
Underdog: “The Dark Knight” (yes, it was nominated for the adapted category by the Guild, don’t look at us)
Wishful Thinking: “Che”, “The Reader”
A tough race to call. Simon Beaufoy’s ‘Slumdog’ script is vibrant, even if some oppose the film’s flashback narrative device. Peter Morgan’s “Frost/Nixon” is expertly crafted, essentially adapting a talking-head stage play into a fleshed out political thriller that suspends disbelief and prior knowledge of how the story ends. ‘Benjamin Button’ is a carbon copy of Eric Roth’s “Forrest Gump” script and shouldn’t even be nominated as such but will be, while ‘Revolutionary Road’ follows its source very closely but actually leaves out important context. Don’t underestimate ‘Changeling’ or “The Dark Knight” like we are (going out on a limb).
Best Original Screenplay
Dustin Lance Black (“Milk”)
Jenny Lumet (“Rachel Getting Married”)
Mike Leigh (“Happy Go Lucky”)
Tom Jenkins (“The Visitor”)
Robert Siegel (“The Wrestler”)
Alternate: “Wall-E”
Underdog: “Synecdoche, New York”
Wishful Thinking: “Burn After Reading,” “Gran Torino”
Yet another slow year for original ideas in Hollywood; more uninspired sequels, prequels and “re-imaginings.” Exceptions were Mike Leigh, Jenny Lumet and Robert Siegel who offered various, unflinching takes on limitations, pursuit of contentment and the human condition. Nick Schenk’s “Gran Torino” script was memorably salty, often hilariously racist. Dustin Lance Black’s “Milk” pays respectful tribute to its strong lead, crafting a story that is more about hope and inspiration than intolerance. Charlie Kaufman’s dark and comedic ‘Synecdoche’ script is a definite case of screenplay trumpeting the final product. The absurdist tone and thoroughly entertaining Coen brothers “Burn After Reading” screenplay, but if feels like a longshot despite the guild nod.
Best Actor
Mickey Rourke (“The Wrestler”)
Clint Eastwood (“Gran Torino”)
Sean Penn (“Milk”)
Frank Langella (“Frost/Nixon”)
Richard Jenkins (“The Visitor”)
Alternate: Brad Pitt (‘Ben Button’)
Underdog: Leonardo DiCaprio (“Revolutionary Road”)
Wishful Thinking: Benicio del Toro (“Che”), Josh Brolin (“W”), Javier Bardem (“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”)
If Jenkins gets in over DiCaprio, it’s probably by a hair, but this heavyweight bout is between Mickey Rourke and Sean Penn. Langella is captivating as Richard Nixon, DiCaprio gives ‘Road’ a flawed but sincere male lead and Eastwood is a definite Academy favorite. But this is a two horse race all the way. Penn brings Harvey Milk to life, fashioning a character who goes from doing nothing to being the face of a movement bigger than any individual. In an unmistakable case of art imitating life, Rourke perfectly depicts a character whose glory days are long gone, burying himself in pain and abuse to evade demons of the past. Our major gripe is going to be the likely snub of Benicio del Toro. In Soderbergh’s “Che,” del Toro perfectly channels the legendary revolutionary, delivering a nuanced portrayal that ranks up there with the year’s best. Unfortunately, it will go unrecognized by the Academy.
Note: Richard Jenkins and Brad Pitt were in the the SAG 5 but many of the techy articles of ‘Benjamin Button’ show that Pitt wasn’t even on set half the time and his “performance” relied to far on special effects.
Best Actress
Kate Winslet (“Revolutionary Road”)
Angelina Jolie (“Changeling”)
Sally Hawkins (“Happy-Go-Lucky”)
Anne Hathaway (“Rachel Getting Married”
Meryl Streep (“Doubt”)
Alternate: Melissa Leo (“Frozen River”)
Underdog: Freida Pinto (“Slumdog Millionaire”),
Wishful Thinking: Kristin Scott Thomas (“I’ve Loved You So Long”), Michelle Williams (“Wendy & Lucy”)
Kate Winslet appears to be the frontrunner to take home a Best Actress nod for her intense, obdurate and tragic lead. Her main competition appears to be Streep, the reigning queen of the Oscars, whose “Doubt” turn as the rigid nun who must confront her convictions to eradicate a potentially corrupt Priest is unreservedly dynamic and spectacular. Sally Hawkins is capricious and full of life, surely worthy of a nomination. We weren’t crazy about Hathaway or Jolie, and would rather see Kristin Scott Thomas or Michelle Williams, both of whom carried emotionally harrowing films. Whatever you do, Oscar, just keep Nicole Kidman away…
Best Director
Gus Van Sant (“Milk”)
Ron Howard (“Frost/Nixon”)
David Fincher (‘Benjamin Button’)
Danny Boyle (“Slumdog Millionaire”)
Christopher Nolan (“The Dark Knight”)
Alternate: Sam Mendes (“Revolutionary Road”), Stephen Daldry (“The Reader”)
Underdog: John Patrick Shanley (“Doubt”), Darren Aronofsky(“The Wrestler”), Clint Eastwood (“Gran Torino”)
Wishful Thinking: Laurent Cantet (“The Class”), Steven Soderbergh (“Che”), Philippe Claudel (“I’ve Loved You So Long”)
Danny Boyle, a versatile and witty director never makes the same film twice. He crafted an effervescent and spirited tale of destiny and true love. At the same time, Christopher Nolan could be recognized for utterly reinventing a franchise that had become a joke – creating a dark, dystopian vessel to examine the almost mirror-like and militant similarities of lunatics and crime fighters (“you complete me!”). Ron Howard skillfully paces “Frost/Nixon,” and Gus Van Sant could win for that “lifetime” (decade-long) achievement award which ways applies to Boyle as well (“you’ve been creating solid work for year, congratulations!”). We’re against that kind of logic in most cases, sans Scorsese in 2006, which only exemplified the ridiculous nature of the awards. Had he really not been recognized in thirty plus years? This is why, despite appearances, we don’t take the Oscars too seriously and neither should you. Unmentionable awards sites that post two sentence posts about “Christmas” (Oscar noms) arriving in two or three days are pretty comical. We recommend Laurent Cantet, with full knowledge he wont be nominated for his excellent, slice of life “The Class.”
Best Picture
“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“The Dark Knight”
“Milk”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Frost/Nixon”
Alternate: “Wall-E”
Underdog: “Revolutionary Road”
Wishful Thinking: “The Wrestler,” “Che,” “Happy Go Lucky,”
The final five look like a very safe bet, but the winner is not clear cut. As of right now, if feels like a three-way race between, ‘Milk,’ ‘Slumdog’ and ‘TDK.’ We’ve predicted ‘Button’ to be shut out in the major categories, but it will score a nom here. ‘Dark Knight’ is a terrific film, could it be the populist year like “Lord Of The Rings”? “Frost/Nixon” is very sturdy and Ron Howard’s best work in ages, but it won’t have the legs. That leaves ‘Milk’ and ‘Slumdog,’ and this is where Academy politics come in to play. A nomination for “The Wrestler” or “Che” in particular is something we would favor, albeit probably unrealistic at this point. Note: *Pictures do not denote our prediction for taking the gold; yes, we allude to what we think are forerunners here, but this is primarily, our Oscar nominations predictions first and foremost.
– David Benjamin and Rodrigo Perez