If you’ve read our blog enough you probably know that super early Oscar prognosticating gets on our nerves since it’s just wildly speculative and usually, making mountains out of molehills. But this is what some sites are dedicated to — and as much as the Oscars mean little in the scope of things, they’ve become more and more relevant over the years (relatively, anyhow).
When we read that some had rushed to adjust their Oscar predix after Cannes, we couldn’t help but laugh, however, this is a super weird Oscar/film year and perhaps even more than last year, any thing’s possible. Why?
1. It’s unquestionably a weak year for traditional Oscar films. We’ve known this for a while. Just look at our myriad Most Anticipated Films of 2009 lists (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 pieces in all), there’s not a lot of obvious Oscar meat. Jeffrey Wells did the same thing when he looked at our lists earlier in the year and essentially asked, “Damn, where’d all the ’09 Oscar-bait go?“
2. Cannes 2009 should have taken up the slack, but was generally a mixed bag of s0-so films — at best. Plus, since when does Cannes awards means Oscars? Almost never. At best a Palme d’Or prize generally means a Best Foreign Film nomination, but even that’s not always guaranteed (see the excellent Romanian picture “4 Months 3 Weeks And 2 Days”)
But weak years make for very interesting years because the un-obvious films get a chance to sit at the big table. That and the fact that was constitutes “traditional Oscar bait” is changing and potentially radically so (say what you will, no one would have guessed May, 29, 2008 that Danny Boyle’s then-upcoming slums of Mumbai film would be an Oscar Best Picture let alone a contender, nominee, etc.).
In this economic climate, the more and more major studios realize that the big money is in dumbed-down franchises and refuse to take anything but sure bets — like Paramount just committed itself to doing — the less they dump millions of dollars into expensive dramas and take up all the for your consideration ads and space, leaving the playing field open for indies or mini majors with truly interesting and deserving Oscar hopefuls rather that seeing banal shit like “A Beautiful Mind” suck up the Oscar oxygen (even “Gladiator” an entertaining recent Oscar winner is not best pic material*).
As Anne Thompson just sagely noted, “These days, [Oscar cred] can be as much a curse as a blessing, as Oscar campaigns can turn a profitable movie into a money loser.”
The times they are definitely a changin’. But again, change is always interesting and when the infrastructure in place buckles, cool shit happens. Regardless, post-Cannes.
Christoph Waltz from “Inglourious Basterds” frankly a long shot for a Best Actor nomination even if he did win the Best Actor prize at Cannes. Thankfully, preoccupied folks like InContention, IndieWire and AwardsDaily seem to agree (we say “seem” cause we can’t find a post-Cannes Oscar piece at AD). Penelope Cruz for Almodovar’s “Broken Embraces”? Hell no, that is unless the rest of the year truly sucks. Again, Charlotte Gainsbourg, who won Best Actress for Lars Von Trier’s “Antichrist”? Seems super doubtful. Even if ever major studio would be hit by al Qaeda attacks, it seems doubtful that IFC Films could mount a proper Oscar campaign for her in such a bleak and hard-to-watch film.
So, the only thing that really has a shot at Oscar post-Cannes? Jane Campion’s “Bright Star.” And not just cause we loved it. It’s an obvious choice, it’s Oscar-baity, and if the nominations were announced today it would get Best Director for Campion, Best Actress for Abbie Cornish, Best Picture, Best Editing, Cinematography, Costume Design, Art Direction and possibly something for one of the two male actors (Ben Whishaw or Paul Schneider), but that seems unlikely. Lee Daniels “Precious” also would have decent Oscar prospects if the nominations were announced today.
But they’re not. They’re announced in nine months, which is why none of this really matters right now and why the game will radically change even in three-four months. But wait, what about the big Cannes winners like Michael Haneke’s “The White Ribbon” or Jacques Audiard’s “Un Prophete”? Pulllease. They’ve got shots at Best Foreign Film if they’re released in the U.S. before the late September Foreign Film deadline and that’s it (if you even breathe Brillante Mendoza’s name as any kind of a hopeful we will slap you).
So what do we have as Oscar-bait? Eh, it’s too early. At best you can speculate. The most obvious film seems to be Rob Marshall’s “Nine,” and maybe Terrence Malick’s “Tree Of Life” if it does actually come out this year. Clint Eastwood is generally at the Oscar ball so that bodes well for his Untitled Nelson Mandela drama, but no one’s seen a lick of it, so why bother really getting into it. “The Road” sounds potentially too arty and Marty Scorsese’s “Shutter Island” reads like “Jacob’s Ladder,” i.e., an engaging psychological thriller, but not really Oscar material (he allegedly took this one to please producers so he could do his dry-oats Jesuit priest passion project). Maybe Paul Greengrass’ “Green Zone” has an outside shot too.
Even the hype and love for “Up,” will die down by Oscar time. We bet you $10 it, like, “Wall-E,” does not earn a Best Picture nod as many are suggesting it might. But again, it’s waaaaay to early to tell.
*If we were going to point out every movie that won an Oscar, but didn’t really deserve it, we’d be here all day.