After Guillermo del Toro won the DGA Award this weekend for “The Shape of Water” it would appear the Fox Searchlight fantasy is on its way to ruling Oscar night. It’s incredibly rare for a film to win both the DGA and PGA Award as “Shape” has and not win Best Picture although it’s not unheard of. In fact, it’s slightly more common than we tend to remember, but it’s also slightly complicated.
Bear with us for a minute.
Last year “La La Land” took both guild honors and famously lost to “Moonlight” which won none of them. “Brokeback Mountain” won the PGA and DGA but lost to “Crash” which won the SAG Ensemble honor. “Gravity” won the DGA, but “tied” with “12 Years A Slave” for the PGA honor and the latter took SAG Ensemble as well as Best Picture. “Saving Private Ryan” took both the PGA and DGA awards, but lost to another SAG Ensemble winner, “Shakespeare in Love.” Then there’s “Apollo 13” which won all three guild awards only to lose Best Pic to “Braveheart.” You might have noticed a common trend, however, and it involves those pesky actors.
Yes, SAG members often adore films the rest of the industry doesn’t, but they also populate the largest voting bloc in the Academy. In fact, it’s incredibly hard to win the big prize without that branch’s support (well, we assume that without knowing the actual breakout of Best Picture votes, but it’s common sense). Obviously, the Academy’s acting branch is a more select group with more cinephile and international tastes (see Lesley Manville and Marion Cotillard somewhat unexpectedly sneaking in over the past few years). Shockingly, “Shape” did not earn a SAG Ensemble nod, but it did land three acting nominations from the Academy: Best Actress (Sally Hawkins), Best Supporting Actress (Octavia Spencer) and Best Supporting Actor (Richard Jenkins). Intriguingly, this is the first time Spencer has earned an Oscar nomination without landing a SAG nod for the same performance which is a huge plus for the movie from the branch (Hawkins and Jenkins duplicated their SAG nods). Does that make up for the missing Ensemble nod? We’ll see, but “Shape” also has a massive 13 nominations with tremendous below the line support in every major branch except Visual Effects. And then there’s “Shape’s” Searchlight stable mate, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.”
This year’s winner of the SAG Ensemble award, the contemporary drama duplicated it’s three acting nominations with both voting bodies: Best Actress (Frances McDormand) and Best Supporting Actor (Sam Rockwell, Woody Harrelson). In fact, “Billboards” would still be the frontrunner over “Shape” if not for the fact it didn’t earn a directing nomination for Martin McDonagh. But “Billboards” has support from all the other major branches with screenwriting, editing and, as noted, multiple acting nods. The last film to win Best Picture without a Directing nod was “Argo,” but it took home all three guild honors. As noted, “Billboards” only took home one. As we said, it’s complicated. But, wait, there’s more facts and figures to jumble your mind.
“The Shape of Water” was released the first week of December. The last time a Best Picture winner was released that late was “Million Dollar Baby” 13 years ago. That’s 12 straight years a film released before December won and a film released in that month didn’t. Strong contenders such as “La La Land,” “The Big Short,” “American Hustle,” “The Revenant” and “The Wolf of Wall Street” were all released during the last four weeks of the calendar year and failed to take Oscar’s top prize. In theory, every other film that can win came out before Dec. 1st.
“Shape of Water” does have the fact that it screened at Telluride going for it. Eight of the last nine Best Picture winners either premiered or had their second festival screening at the Colorado institution. “Three Billboards,” “Get Out” and “Dunkirk” did not (“Lady Bird” and “Darkest Hour” had their world premieres there).
But, what else could win? “Get Out” could. It has nominations from every major branch and earned key SAG, PGA and DGA nominations. You could say it’s this year’s “Moonlight,” but that winner earned a BAFTA nomination for Best Film which “Get Out” missed out on. The last movie to win the Best Picture Oscar without that key BAFTA nod? Clint Eastwood’s “Million Dollar Baby” (a very late arriving player that year) and before that it was Mel Gibson’s “Braveheart.” That’s twice in 22 years. And, in case you’re wondering, “Lady Bird” didn’t earn that BAFTA nod either and is also missing a Best Editing nomination. “Birdman” was the last movie to win without a Best Editing nod, but it hung its hat on the fact it was mostly an extended take picture. Before then? “Ordinary People” in 1981. That was 37 years ago. So, yes, BAFTA and Editing nominations are huge trends to look at.
As for the other contenders “Dunkirk” has a ton of below the line love as well as Directing and Editing nods. Unfortunately, it has shown absolutely no acting support from SAG or the Academy and didn’t land a screenplay nomination either. “Phantom Thread” has made a late charge, but missed out on screenwriting and editing nods.
Often, it comes down to the movie that the Academy membership are moved by the most. By this time last year the negative backlash on “La La Land” was in full swing, but many thought it was impossible to stop an inevitable coronation. The difference in 2018 is there is hardly any disdain for del Toro’s work at all. There are many who are passionate about it and some who are admittedly ambivalent, but the on the ground negatives are very low. Many believe “Get Out” is an important film, but it also seem there were many Academy members who hadn’t even watched by the time the nominations came out (hey, it happens even for a $175 million hit). “Three Billboards” has its detractors on social media, but it’s unclear how far that’s gotten with AMPAS members. If “Billboards” wins BAFTA does that change the equation? Sure, but the last three BAFTA winners lost the Oscar for Best Picture. So, maybe the idea is for any serious contender is not to win BAFTA anymore?
The good or bad news, depending how you see it, is that with voting still two weeks away there is a lot of time for the sands to shift. Or not.
Here’s our latest Contender Countdown Best Picture rankings as well as links to updated picks in all the other categories but shorts (which are coming later this week).
Feb. 5, 2018
1. “The Shape of Water”
If any film didn’t want to win BAFTA it’s this one. Also, “old” Hollywood loves it which is a good sign.
2. “Get Out”
Don’t count it…out. Might also be your odds on Independent Spirit Award winner.
3. “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
BAFTA is either its big night to celebrate or a red flag it could take Oscar.
4. “Dunkirk”
I mean, even “The Last Emperor” earned a screenwriting nomination.
5. “Lady Bird”
There’s still hope for Greta Gerwig to take Original Screenplay and Laurie Metcalf could still surprise over Allison Janney in Supporting Actress (O.K., we’re probably dreaming on the latter, but we haven’t given up yet).
6. “Phantom Thread”
The Best Costumes statue is a given and Jonny Greenwood has a shot to win Original Score.
7. “Darkest Hour”
Gary Oldman seems like the biggest lock of the night. However, we’re slightly concerned his competition isn’t Timothée Chalamet, but Daniel Day-Lewis.
8. “Call Me By Your Name”
SPC needs to do everything they can to solidify a win for 89-year-old James Ivory. How that the field is set Adapted Screenplay is a little more competitive than they might have expected.
9. “The Post”
If only Trump had tweeted, am I right?
Current predictions:
Best Picture
Best Actor
Best Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Director
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Cinematography
Production Design
Original Score
Best Song
Costumes
Sound Mixing
Sound Editing
Documentary
Foreign Language Film
Animated Feature Film
Makeup and Hairstyling
Visual Effects
Best Animated Short – Coming Soon
Best Live Action Short – Coming Soon
Best Documentary Short – Coming Soon