With the second weekend in the books for “Solo: A Star Wars Story,” there are many analysts that are projecting just how much money the film will pull in for Disney and Lucasfilm. Unfortunately, the early estimates seem to point at ‘Solo’ being the first “Star Wars” film to lose money at the box office. And from what is being reported, the film’s not even going to be close to profitable.
According to a Wall Street analyst (via THR), after everything is all said and done, ‘Solo’ could lose $50 million. Depending on specific deals and final box office totals, that number could rise to $80+ million. These numbers are based on the projections that put the final worldwide box office total for the film somewhere just above $400 million. While a film grossing almost a half-billion at the box office is still a huge total, once you take into consideration that ‘Solo’ has a rumored budget somewhere between $250-$300 million, it’s clear that the film needed to gross closer to $1 billion for profitability.
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For those that aren’t aware of how these analysts come up with their profit projections, here’s a quick overview. If ‘Solo’ cost $250 million to produce and Disney spent $150 on marketing (which is also being reported), that means the cost for the film comes in at around $400 million. Since the studio only sees roughly half of the box office grosses (those theaters need their cut too), that means that ‘Solo’ would have needed to make approximately $800 million to break even.
So, once you take into consideration the money Disney makes from expected home video and streaming purchases and selling the rights to a TV network, the studio can expect to lose anywhere from $50-$80+ million.
The big question now, and one that is being speculated in every corner of the Internet, is why? Why did this “Star Wars” film fail to earn as much as previous films? According to another Wall Street analyst (via Deadline), the biggest factor wasn’t fatigue, story, or drama. No, it was the marketing.
“If the franchise was able to survive ‘Phantom Menace’ and ‘Attack of the Clones,’ we have a hard time believing ‘Last Jedi’ could have done that much damage,” analyst Doug Creutz writes. He says that ‘Solo’s’ box office struggle “has occasioned some concern that audiences may be suffering from ‘Star Wars’ fatigue. We think this is probably not the case, and that Solo’s biggest problem was an uncharacteristically (for Disney) poor marketing campaign.”
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He goes on to explain how the marketing for ‘Rogue One’ was far superior to ‘Solo,’ particularly with the first teaser trailer. According to Creutz, ‘Rogue One’s’ initial teaser had epic shots and familiar elements that got fans excited. However, with ‘Solo,’ that wasn’t the case. “The [‘Solo’] teaser, by our count, only had about 10 seconds of screen time where [Alden] Ehrenreich’s face was clearly in the picture — not, in our opinion, nearly enough,” explained Creutz.
But the report isn’t without a silver lining. Creutz does expect “Star Wars: Episode IX” to do well at the box office, and even surpass ‘The Last Jedi.’ He also offers a suggestion for Disney to help, which is to “promote Dave Filoni to a higher level of importance at Lucasfilm.” Fans of the animated “Star Wars” universe knows that Filoni is the creative director behind those shows, and one of the names that fans wish would have more input on the big screen offerings.
Of course, the final word on “Solo: A Star Wars Story” is far from written. It appears that no matter what you think about the finished film, ‘Solo’ is proof that Disney and Lucasfilm aren’t bulletproof. Now, we’ll have to wait and see what they do moving forward.
One thing on the docket for the future is next year’s Star Wars Celebration event. Here’s the official announcement trailer: