As with all award shows, the Independent Spirit Awards will be quite different than previous years. The virtual ceremony means there will be no day drinking in a tent on Santa Monica beach, and the Spirit’s first-time host, Melissa Villaseñor, won’t be able to interact with the always buzzed audience. But there are great movies and, for the first time, television programs to recognize. Predicting the winners? Well, this time around, you can throw the usual Spirit Awards rules out the window.
READ MORE: “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” leads 2021 Independent Spirit Awards nominations
Traditionally, the Spirit Awards are pretty easy to figure out. Voting is open to the 10,000+ members of Film Independent, the Los Angeles-based non-profit arts organization that has run the Spirits for its 35-year history. And if you’re willing to pay the small yearly fee, anyone can be a member (even you!). That usually means the most popular film (i.e., box office) or the actor/writer/director associated with said release wins. Not all the time, but most of the time. Of course, this year, barely any of the nominated films have box office even to consider. And if they did, how do you judge them against the slew of nominees that were available on Netflix, Amazon, or Hulu?
Well, let us consider the possibilities, shall we?
FILM CATEGORIES
BEST FEATURE
“First Cow”
“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
“Minari”
“Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
“Nomadland”
Who will win: “Nomadland”
Who should win: “Nomadland,” “Minari” or “First Cow”
Upset: “Minari” or “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Lowdown: This may not be as wrapped up as it might seem. Sure, “Nomadland” is the frontrunner for Oscar and won the top film award and audience award at the Gothams, but many more films have been screened for voters since then. Moreover, the Spirit membership is significantly younger and more aspirational than AMPAS or other industry organizations. And it would not surprise us if “Minari,” which is the acclaimed darling of the blessed A24 fan base, or “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom,” which has been on Netflix for months, snatched this year’s crown.
BEST FIRST FEATURE
“I Carry You With Me”
“The Forty-Year-Old Version”
“Miss Juneteenth”
“Nine Days”
“Sound of Metal”
Who will win: “Sound of Metal”
Who should win: “Sound of Metal”
Upset: “The Forty-Year-Old Version”
Lowdown: The only Best Picture nominee in this field is “Sound of Metal,” and, frankly, it’s the best movie of the bunch. Of course, “The Forty-Year-Old Version” could surprise thanks to the Netflix effect.
JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD
“The Killing of Two Lovers”
“La Leyenda Negra”
“Lingua Franca”
“Residue”
“Saint Frances”
Who will win: “Saint Frances”
Who should win: Got me
Upset: No clue
Lowdown: Having only seen “Saint Frances,” this is one category that might just turn out to be a pick ’em.
BEST DIRECTOR
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Eliza Hittman, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Kelly Reichardt, “First Cow”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Who will win: Chloe Zhao
Who should win: Chloe Zhao
Upset: Emerald Fennell or Lee Isaac Chung
Lowdown: Hard to see the BAFTA and DGA winner losing here, but if so, Emerald Fennell and Lee Isaac Chung are more than worthy of taking the trophy.
BEST SCREENPLAY
Lee Isaac Chung, “Minari”
Emerald Fennell, “Promising Young Woman”
Eliza Hittman, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Mike Makowsky, “Bad Education”
Alice Wu, “The Half of It”
Who will win: Emerald Fennell
Who should win: Emerald Fennell or Lee Isaac Chung
Upset: Lee Isaac Chung or Eliza Hittman
Lowdown: This seems like an easy slam dunk for Fennell. It doesn’t hurt that based on its superb PVOD performance (or that’s the word at least), it was likely seen by more members than even “Minari” or “Bad Education.”
BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
Kitty Green, “The Assistant”
Noah Hutton, “Lapsis”
Channing Godfrey Peoples, “Miss Juneteenth”
Andy Siara, “Palm Springs”
James Sweeney, “Straight Up”
Who will win: Kitty Green
Who should win: Andy Siara or Kitty Green
Upset: Channing Godfrey Peoples
Lowdown: Andy Siara could win for “Palm Springs,” but it might not be “important” or “prestige” enough for even Film Independent members. A Kitty Green‘s screenplay for “The Assistant” might just squeak it out instead.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Jay Keitel, “She Dies Tomorrow”
Shabier Kirchner, “Bull”
Michael Latham, “The Assistant”
Hélène Louvart, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Joshua James Richards, “Nomadland”
Who will win: Joshua James Richards
Who should win: Joshua James Richards
Upset: Hélène Louvart
Lowdown: Something tells us “Nomadland’s” Joshua James Richards won’t miss out on this one.
BEST EDITING
Andy Canny, “The Invisible Man”
Scott Cummings, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Merawi Gerima, “Residue”
Enat Sidi, “I Carry You With Me”
Chloé Zhao, “Nomadland”
Who will win: Chloe Zhao
Who should win: Chloe Zhao or Andy Canny
Upset: Scott Cummings
Lowdown: Usually the legitimately best-edited film wins this category. That should be Zhao, but Andy Canny or Scott Cummings could surprise for “The Invisible Man” or “Never Rarely Sometimes Always,” respectively.
BEST FEMALE LEAD
Nicole Beharie, “Miss Juneteenth”
Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Sidney Flanigan, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Julia Garner, “The Assistant”
Frances McDormand, “Nomadland”
Carey Mulligan, “Promising Young Woman”
Who will win: Carey Mulligan
Who should win: Any of them
Upset: Viola Davis or Frances McDormand
Lowdown: She might not take the Oscar, but we think the Spirits are going to give Carey Mulligan the love she deserves for her fantastic performance in “PYW.” That being said, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if Viola Davis or Frances McDormand won this category instead.
BEST MALE LEAD
Riz Ahmed, “Sound of Metal”
Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Adarsh Gourav, “The White Tiger”
Rob Morgan, “Bull”
Steven Yeun, “Minari”
Who will win: Chadwick Boseman
Who should win: Riz Ahmed
Upset: Riz Ahmed
Lowdown: Chadwick Boseman should win what would be a posthumous honor, but Riz Ahmed has a shot.
BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Alexis Chikaeze, “Miss Juneteenth”
Yeri Han, “Minari”
Valerie Mahaffey, “French Exit”
Talia Ryder, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always”
Yuh-jung Youn, “Minari”
Who will win: Yuh-jung Youn
Who should win: Yuh-jung Youn
Upset: Talia Ryder
Lowdown: It would be hard to believe just a few months ago, but “Minari’s” Yuh-jung Youn has the biggest name recognition now among her fellow nominees. That should pretty much do it.
BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Colman Domingo, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Orion Lee, “First Cow”
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal”
Glynn Turman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Benedict Wong, “Nine Days”
Who will win: Paul Raci
Who should win: Paul Raci
Upset: Glynn Turman or Colman Domingo
Lowdown: Oscar nominee and longtime indie vet Paul Raci is the industry’s darling for his performance in “Sound of Metal.” He should get rewarded here.
ROBERT ALTMAN AWARD– Given to one film’s director, casting director, and ensemble cast*
“One Night in Miami…” Director: Regina King Casting Directors: Kimberly R. Hardin Ensemble Cast: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom Jr.
*This award has already been announced.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
“Collective“
“Crip Camp“
“Dick Johnson is Dead“
“The Mole Agent“
“Time“
Who will win: “Time”
Who should win: “Time” or “Collective”
Upset: “Crip Camp” or “Dick Johnson is Dead”
Lowdown: “Time” or “Collective” deserve to win this, but it’s likely more members have seen “Crip Camp” or “Dick Johnson is Dead,” which have been available on Netflix since last summer. We’re just gonna hope “Time” pulls it out in a split vote.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM
“Bacurau” (Brazil)
“The Disciple” (India)
“Night of the Kings” (Ivory Coast)
“Preparations to be Together for an Unknown Period of Time” (Hungary)
“Quo Vadis, Aida?” (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Who will win: “Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Who should win: “Quo Vadis, Aida?”
Upset: “Bacurau” or “Night of the Kings”
Lowdown: This is a tough one. “Bacurau” has the critic’s love (although it’s a bit overboard and “Night of the Kings” probably appeals to Film Independent members the most, but “Quo Vadis, Aida?” is the only Oscar nominee of the bunch. It’s also fantastic. Again, tough call.
TV CATEGORIES
BEST NEW NON-SCRIPTED OR DOCUMENTARY SERIES
Atlanta’s Missing and Murdered: The Lost Children
City So Real
Immigration Nation
Love Fraud
We’re Here
Who will win: “We’re Here”
Who should win: “City So Real” or “We’re Here”
Upset: Pick ’em
Lowdown: We’re guessing that HBO’s “We’re Here” has the most name recognition (thanks to lots of LA and NY marketing). “Atlanta’s Missing and Murdered: The Lost Children” is also on HBO, critically acclaimed “City So Real” is on Hulu, “Immigration Nation” is on Netflix, and “Love Fraud” is on Showtime, so it really might come down to what was the biggest “hit.” In that case, we’re going with “We’re Here.” (We might be biased, though).
BEST NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
“I May Destroy You”
“Little America”
“Small Axe”
“A Teacher”
“Unorthodox”
Who will win: “I May Destroy You”
Who should win: “I May Destroy You”
Upset: “Unorthodox” or “Small Axe”
Lowdown: If any television program should win a Spirit Award and be adored by its membership, it’s “I May Destroy You.” That being said, Emmy favorite “Unorthodox” or Steve McQueen’s cinematic “Small Axe” could take the honor instead.
BEST FEMALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Elle Fanning, “The Great”
Shira Haas, “Unorthodox”
Abby McEnany, “Work in Progress”
Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, “Never Have I Ever”
Jordan Kristine Seamón, “We Are Who We Are”
Who will win: Shira Haas
Who should win: Shira Haas
Upset: Elle Fanning
Lowdown: We’ll be stunned if Emmy and Golden Globe nominee Shira Haas doesn’t win this one. Of course, Elle Fanning is a more familiar name to most of the membership so…
BEST MALE PERFORMANCE IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES
Conphidance, “Little America”
Adam Ali, “Little America”
Nicco Annan, “P-Valley”
Amit Rahav, “Unorthodox”
Harold Torres, “Zero, Zero, Zero”
Who will win: Amit Rahav
Who should win: Nicco Annan
Upset: Nicco Annan
Lowdown: This is pretty much a pick ’em, but we suspect more members have watched “Unorthodox” than any other nominated series. That means the very deserving Amit Rahav should pull it out.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST IN A NEW SCRIPTED SERIES*
“I May Destroy You”
Ensemble Cast: Michaela Coel, Paapa Essiedu, Wruche Opia, Stephen Wight
*This award was already announced.
It should be noted that Film Independent previously announced that Ekwa Msangi, director of “Farewell Amor,” won the Someone to Watch Award, which includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant. Gerry Kim received the Producers Award (no cash prize), and Elegance Bratton, director of “Pier Kids,” received the Truer Than Fiction Award, which also includes a $25,000 unrestricted grant.
The 2021 Independent Spirit Awards will be broadcast on IFC and AMC+ at 10 PM ET/PT on Thursday, April 22. Look for full coverage on The Playlist.