With the news this week that Disney decided to reshuffle most of its remaining 2020 film slate and pushed the majority to 2021, the fall schedule is looking grim. Sure, films are being released in theaters every week, but when you look at major studio releases, really it’s been “Tenet” in early September and then…nothing. And with October looking incredibly bare, folks are beginning to wonder how long cinemas can keep their doors open? Well, according to a new interview with /Film, the Vice President and Chief Communications Officer of the National Association of Theater Owners (NATO), Patrick Corcoran, is concerned.
As mentioned, the issue isn’t that theaters are having to use reduced capacities and extensive COVID safety protocols that are keeping people from coming back to cinemas. Instead, it’s the lack of content. If you look at the current release schedule, the next major film from a large studio is “Freaky” from Universal/Blumhouse on November 13. That’s followed the following weekend by “No Time to Die” and Pixar’s “Soul” on November 20. But can theaters survive until the end of November? And will the indie films and smaller releases keep them afloat until locations in New York City and Los Angeles can reopen? Unfortunately, the answer is unclear.
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“We need big movies…We’d hoped that Disney would hold on, but studios have to make their decisions based on their marketing spend and their marketing plan,” said Corcoran. “If they aren’t certain that theaters will be open, they’re going to delay. We’re gratified that they’re moving and not going to Disney+. That’s kind of an important statement. But until we get some of that certainty, we may be seeing theaters close back down again because it’s really tough, if you don’t have new movies coming in, to keep the lights on. To keep paying people. You lose money being closed, but you may end up losing more money if you can’t get audiences in and you’re open.”
He added, “If something doesn’t happen soon, you’re probably going to see theaters close down again until we have those markets [New York and Los Angeles] open and the studios ready to release films. We’ve still got late November and December that still have a fairly good footprint of titles, but it’s tough to get there.”
Now, Corcoran is right in pointing out that November and December look to have some major releases, with the aforementioned films alongside offerings like “The Croods: A New Age” on November 25, “Free Guy” on December 11, “Dune” and “Death on the Nile” on December 18, and the big one, “Wonder Woman 1984,” on December 25. But to say at this point that these films are all guaranteed to be released is still premature. We know that any of the studios could change these dates at the last minute if NYC and LA continue to be shut down.
There’s also the real question about whether or not the theater chains, with reduced capacities, limited showings, and an uneasy customer base, can fully support more than one major film at a time. What happens with theaters when they have to somehow show 5 or 6 major films at once? That is a question that no one knows the answer to. And if it’s shown that clumping these films together just cannibalizes the market, then there’s no way Disney, Universal, Warner Bros., or anyone else is going to risk it.
Needless to say, it’s a scary time to be a theater owner, and the future isn’t looking very great right now.