For the rest of 2010, the box office numbers have a chance to significantly alter the Oscar race. With the remaining films of ‘10 in play, the ones without unmanageable budgets are likely gambling for gold. As much as we like to think the Oscar voting happens in a bubble, those with ballots are strongly aware of what plays with audiences and what doesn’t, especially considering the extended nominees list is a format more generous to crowd-pleasers.
Which is why the opening of the mid-budgeted “The Town,” pegged by prognosticators to be several million shy of the number one slot, is great news for the film’s somewhat questionable Oscar odds. November and December are considered the big months for contenders, but Warner Bros. put out “The Departed” in an October slot and it pulled in numbers only slightly stronger than Ben Affleck’s well-reviewed directorial effort, with near-identical marketing efforts. If “The Town” nabs $60 million or so, it has an outside shot at being recognized on the list of the Oscar final ten. If it does “The Departed” numbers (unlikely) then you’re looking at a possible slot in other categories as well — don’t be surprised to see Warner Bros. back Affleck for director, and maybe even Jeremy Renner for Supporting Actor.
Tracking ran high for “Easy A,” resulting in a very solid opening weekend. The trailer was in front of nearly everything this summer so that ad presence paid off. This is the third straight hit from Sony’s Screen Gems division in a month, after “Takers” and “Resident Evil: Apocalypse” and it’s also by far the cheapest, though Screen Gems has a reputation for not exactly splurging on their genre efforts. While it’s not sure where she goes from here, this at least puts Emma Stone in Anna Faris territory.
Opening in a distant third was “Devil.” The thriller’s numbers are slightly lower than what was expected, but for a low-budget scare picture with a no-name cast, this gross is respectable. The film was marketed on the name of producer M. Night Shyamalan, though by now there’s a certain negative association with the noted auteur due to his last few films being tarred and feathered by fans not yet wise enough to quit paying to see them. This was the maiden voyage for the Night Chronicles production shingle, but expect the next one to not rely as much on the Shyamalan name. As for the directors the Dowdle brothers, this doesn’t really affect their cred enough to get their first film out of the clutches of MGM, the three-year-old, unreleased “The Poughkeepsie Tapes.”
“Resident Evil: Afterlife” wasn’t expected to stick around much after that massive opening, but with inflated 3D pricing comes even bigger audience losses. The massive second weekend fall only confirms that the “Afterlife” opening frame was courtesy of the “Resident Evil” core flocking to see Alice kick some ass once more, and the normals aren’t being persuaded that easily by the 3D. Nonetheless, worldwide numbers are suggesting that even with the troubling second weekend slip, this will end up outperforming the other films in the series by a wide margin. Part five is definitely a high priority for all involved, but don’t be surprise if they take the blood-from-a-turnip approach and market it as the last film in the franchise.
At #5, Lionsgate was able to open “Alpha And Omega” with respectable numbers. Marketing, with the odd usage of Duran Duran’s “Hungry Like The Wolf,” seemed to confuse adults, making this less of a “Despicable Me” and more of a “Happily N’Ever After,” but Lionsgate was able to pull this off on the cheap. While they may have dumped it on this weekend with little regard, someone at Lionsgate’s production offices is breathing easier that this project opened closer to $10 million rather than $5m. Still, 3D inflation is still in play here, meaning that no one really saw this thing, and the studio should treat this like more of an experiment than a full-fledged jump into animation.
While “Takers” has long outdistanced “The Last Exorcism” and leapfrogged the more adult “The American,” the Screen Gems hit is closing up shop, and might land at a very respectable $60 million final. There was talk about a prequel, but the DVD sales would have to be massive (not an impossibility). Screen Gems is more likely just going to keep pairing the same repertory group they’ve employed for these films on another cheap, middlebrow genre effort next year. Matt Dillon, Screen Gems is on line one. “The American” is also wrapping up a more-than-respectable run, though pushing that DVD window up considerably might help Focus Features start an actual Oscar campaign. They have stronger horses in the race, but if one falters, don’t be surprised to see “The American” on DVD by early December.
“The Other Guys” and “Inception” continue their improbable runs, as both pushed through the summer and could conceivably play until October. “Inception” is about tapped out and would need a very muscular push to get that leftover $15 million and land at a stockholder-friendly $300 million domestic, but with the numbers the dream-based thriller is collecting overseas, there’s no real bad news. The Oscar race is going to need the 500 lb. gorilla of a people’s choice, and “Inception” is as much of a sure thing as there is, though “Toy Story 3” could easily join the race as well. “The Other Guys,” oddly enough, may also factor in the race for the Oscars, albeit indirectly. Mark Wahlberg is expected to be a major player for “The Fighter,” but his candidacy for that film will be helped by having a non-awards hit like “The Other Guys” under his name. Do you really think Sandra Bullock would have won the Oscar for “The Blind Side” had “The Proposal” not been a blockbuster? Being bankable matters.
In indie theaters, the week’s biggest winner was “Catfish.” The docu-thriller enticed $255k worth of filmgoers on only twelve screens, a $21k per-screen that should stand up well with expansion in coming weeks. Since enough people saw it, can we now spoil that it’s not about aquatic creatures? The week’s best theater average, however, belonged to “Never Let Me Go,” which registered a $30k per-screen at only four venues. Smaller was the success of “Jack Goes Boating,” which generated a so-so$30k on four screens, while “Leaves Of Grass” was finally released into the wild after what feels like years in hibernation, pulling in $25k on three screens. Support your local indie theater, boys and girls.
1. The Townies (WB) – $23.8 million
2. Easy A (Sony) – $18.2 million
3. Satan Bypasses The Stairs (Universal) – $12.6 million
4. Resident Evil: Afterlife (Sony) – $10.1 million ($44 mil.)
5. Alpha And Omega (Lionsgate) – $9.2 million
6. Grabbers (Sony) – $3 million ($52 mil.)
7. The American (Uni.) – $2.8 million ($33 mil.)
8. Inception (WB) – $2 million ($285 mil.)
9. Los Otros Hombres (Sony) – $2 million ($115 mil.)
10. Machete (Fox) – $1.7 million ($24 mil.)