Some years it’s great being a member of the Hollywood Foreign Press. Your organization gives millions of dollars away to charitable causes and everyone wants to come to your parties at the Beverly Hilton. Other years, journalists uncover some “unsavory” details about the group of just 80+ voting members and, well, all that public relations work goes down the drain. The 2021 Golden Globes, delayed because of the pandemic, are shaping up to land in the latter category. And to make matters worse, the live NBC telecast will find beloved hosts Tina Fey and Amy Poehler broadcasting from different coasts which, um, defeats the purpose of bringing them back in the first place.
READ MORE: Golden Globes Snubs and Surprises: Zendaya, “I May Destroy You,” Jared Leto
Before members went unusually quiet following the LA Times expose earlier this week, they were back to their old ways of telling studio and network consultants exactly what they wanted to hear. So, as always, who should win should be qualified with an asterisk. That being said, will there be some surprises on Sunday night? Sure. Are there other wins we can justifiably assume? You bet. Will these wins really affect the Oscar nominations? Eh, I mean, I guess it’s something to put on an ad.
Keeping all that in mind, some educated predictions for this year’s crop of Golden Globes recipients.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
THE FATHER (Trademark Films; Sony Pictures Classics)
MANK (Netflix; Netflix)
NOMADLAND (Highwayman / Hear/Say / Cor Cordium; Searchlight Pictures)
PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN (LuckyChap Entertainment / FilmNation Entertainment; Focus Features)
THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7 (Marc Platt Productions / Dreamworks Pictures; Netflix)
Who Will Win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
If Not Then: “Nomadland”
Who Should Win: “Nomadland”
Lowdown: This is a very close race and the Chloe Zhao drama could easily win, but from those members who are disclosing their votes it looks like Netflix will earn their first win in this category.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
VIOLA DAVIS MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANDRA DAY THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
VANESSA KIRBY PIECES OF A WOMAN
FRANCES MCDORMAND NOMADLAND
CAREY MULLIGAN PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
Who Will Win: Carey Mulligan
If Not Then: Viola Davis
Who Should Win: Any of them
Lowdown: In a stellar class (you really cannot dismiss any of these performances), Mulligan should get a nice Oscar boost.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
RIZ AHMED SOUND OF METAL
CHADWICK BOSEMAN MA RAINEY’S BLACK BOTTOM
ANTHONY HOPKINS THE FATHER
GARY OLDMAN MANK
TAHAR RAHIM THE MAURITANIAN
Who Will Win: Chadwick Boseman
If Not Then: Riz Ahmed
Who Should Win: Riz Ahmed
Lowdown: I would not want to be an HFPA member publicly on Twitter if Boseman somehow doesn’t win this honor.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM (Four By Two Films; Amazon Studios)
HAMILTON (Walt Disney Pictures / RadicalMedia / 5000 Broadway Productions / NEVIS Productions / Old 320 Sycamore Pictures; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
MUSIC (Pineapple Lasagne Productions / Landay Entertainment; Vertical Entertainment / IMAX)
PALM SPRINGS (Party Over Here / Limelight Productions; NEON / Hulu)
THE PROM (Netflix / Dramatic Forces / Storykey Entertainment; Netflix)
Who Will Win: “Hamilton“
If Not Then: “Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm”
Who Should Win: Palm Springs
Lowdown: The “Borat” sequel could also win, but the HFPA love “Hamilton.” Were they embarrassed over the criticism of nominating a literal filmed stage production in this category? Are you kidding? Of course not.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
MARIA BAKALOVA BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
KATE HUDSON MUSIC
MICHELLE PFEIFFER FRENCH EXIT
ROSAMUND PIKE I CARE A LOT
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY EMMA.
Who Will Win: Michelle Pfeiffer
If Not Then: Maria Bakalova
Who Should Win: Michelle Pfeiffer
Lowdown: This is an interesting one. Pfeiffer has been nominated for a Globe eight times but hasn’t won in 31 years. Bakalova is the fresh new face. Pike is in the movie that spiked in popularity after voting closed, but she’s a three-time nominee. Taylor-Joy could make history winning for this category and Best Actress in a Limited Series or TV Movie. Hudson, well, we do think the HFPA is embarrassed about “Music,” so she’s not really in the mix. The other four? Pick ’em.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
SACHA BARON COHEN BORAT SUBSEQUENT MOVIEFILM
JAMES CORDEN THE PROM
LIN-MANUEL MIRANDA HAMILTON
DEV PATEL THE PERSONAL HISTORY OF DAVID COPPERFIELD
ANDY SAMBERG PALM SPRINGS
Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
If Not Then: Lin-Manuel Miranda
Who Should Win: Dev Patel
Lowdown: It’s between Cohen and Miranda. One is winning picture, the other this category.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED
THE CROODS: A NEW AGE (DreamWorks Animation; Universal Pictures)
ONWARD (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
OVER THE MOON (Netflix / Pearl Studio / Glen Keane Productions; Netflix)
SOUL (Walt Disney Pictures / Pixar Animation Studios; Walt Disney Studios Motion Pictures)
WOLFWALKERS (Cartoon Saloon / Melusine; Apple / GKIDS)
Who Will Win: “Soul”
If Not Then: “Wolfwalkers”
Who Should Win: “Soul”
Lowdown: Last year the HFPA shocked the animated world by picking “Missing Link” over eventual Oscar winner “Toy Story 4.” We sincerely doubt they will do that to Pixar again.
BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE
ANOTHER ROUND (DENMARK) (Zentropa Entertainments; Samuel Goldwyn Films)
LA LLORONA (GUATEMALA / FRANCE) (La Casa de Producción / Les Films du Volcan; Shudder)
THE LIFE AHEAD (ITALY) (Palomar; Netflix)
MINARI (USA) (Plan B; A24)
TWO OF US (FRANCE / USA) (Paprika Films; Magnolia Pictures)
Who Will Win: “Another Round”
If Not Then: “La Llorona”
Who Should Win: “Minari”
Lowdown: “Minari” shouldn’t even be in this category and the fact studios are not calling on them more publicly on this is eyebrow-raising. It doesn’t matter in the long run, however. This win is between two likely Oscar nominees in the International Film category, “Another Round” and “La Llorona.”
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
GLENN CLOSE HILLBILLY ELEGY
OLIVIA COLMAN THE FATHER
JODIE FOSTER THE MAURITANIAN
AMANDA SEYFRIED MANK
HELENA ZENGEL NEWS OF THE WORLD
Who Will Win: Amanda Seyfried
If Not Then: Olivia Colman
Who Should Win: Amanda Seyfried
Lowdown: Yes, Close could win here, but the tea leaves say Seyfried.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE
SACHA BARON COHEN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
DANIEL KALUUYA JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
JARED LETO THE LITTLE THINGS
BILL MURRAY ON THE ROCKS
LESLIE ODOM JR. ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Who Will Win: Sacha Baron Cohen
If Not Then: Daniel Kaluuya
Who Should Win: Anyone but Jared Leto
Lowdown: Could Cohen end up with two Golden Globes on Sunday night? Looks like it. Is he winning the Oscar? No.
BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
EMERALD FENNELL PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
DAVID FINCHER MANK
REGINA KING ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
AARON SORKIN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
CHLOÉ ZHAO NOMADLAND
Who Will Win: Chloe Zhao
If Not Then: Aaron Sorkin or Emerald Fennell
Who Should Win: Chloe Zhao
Lowdown: The HFPA could delight many by going with Fennell, but we’d be truly surprised if they overlook Zhao who has won this honor from almost every critics group in the country.
BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
EMERALD FENNELL PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN
JACK FINCHER MANK
AARON SORKIN THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
FLORIAN ZELLER, CHRISTOPHER HAMPTON THE FATHER
CHLOÉ ZHAO NOMADLAND
Who Will Win: Aaron Sorkin
If Not Then: Emerald Fennell
Who Should Win: Emerald Fennell
Lowdown: Zeller is the potential spoiler here, but we think the HFPA are looking to anoint “Trial” and this is another category they will deem an easy way to do it. Fennell winning would be a nice PR move for her Oscar and BAFTA chances in the Original Screenplay category.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
ALEXANDRE DESPLAT THE MIDNIGHT SKY
LUDWIG GÖRANSSON TENET
JAMES NEWTON HOWARD NEWS OF THE WORLD
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS MANK
TRENT REZNOR, ATTICUS ROSS, JON BATISTE SOUL
Who Will Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
If Not Then: James Newton Howard
Who Should Win: Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste
Lowdown: You can argue whether “Soul” should be a Best Picture nominee or whether it’s among your favorite Pixar movies, but almost no one will deny the film’s gorgeous score.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
“FIGHT FOR YOU” — JUDAS AND THE BLACK MESSIAH
Music by: H.E.R., Dernst Emile II
Lyrics by: H.E.R., Tiara Thomas
“HEAR MY VOICE” — THE TRIAL OF THE CHICAGO 7
Music by: Daniel Pemberton
Lyrics by: Daniel Pemberton, Celeste Waite
“IO SÌ (SEEN)” — THE LIFE AHEAD
Music by: Diane Warren
Lyrics by: Diane Warren, Laura Pausini, Niccolò Agliardi
“SPEAK NOW” — ONE NIGHT IN MIAMI…
Music by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
Lyrics by: Leslie Odom Jr, Sam Ashworth
“TIGRESS & TWEED” — THE UNITED STATES VS. BILLIE HOLIDAY
Music by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
Lyrics by: Andra Day, Raphael Saadiq
Who Will Win: “IO SÌ (SEEN)”
If Not Then: “HEAR MY VOICE”
Who Should Win: “FIGHT FOR YOU”
Lowdown: This is a category without a frontrunner whatsoever. Something tells us Diane Warren will add a second Globe to her mantle, but even the most connected HFPA member probably has no idea who will take this one.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
THE CROWN – NETFLIX (Left Bank Pictures / Sony Pictures Television)
LOVECRAFT COUNTRY – HBO (HBO / Afemme / Monkeypaw / Bad Robot / Warner Bros. Television)
THE MANDALORIAN – DISNEY+ (Lucasfilm Ltd.)
OZARK – NETFLIX (MRC Television)
RATCHED – NETFLIX (Fox21 Television Studios)
Who Will Win: “The Crown”
If Not Then: “Ozark”
Who Should Win: “The Crown”
Lowdown: It’s been a long time since a TV series won a second or third Globe in this category (“Homeland” in 2013), but we expect “The Crown,” which previously won in 2017, to break that streak.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
OLIVIA COLMAN THE CROWN
JODIE COMER KILLING EVE
EMMA CORRIN THE CROWN
LAURA LINNEY OZARK
SARAH PAULSON RATCHED
Who Will Win: Emma Corrin
If Not Then: Sarah Paulson
Who Should Win: Olivia Colman
Lowdown: Colman and Corrin could split the vote, but we think the latter is a textbook definition of the sort of winner the HFPA goes for. She’s deserving too.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
JASON BATEMAN OZARK
JOSH O’CONNOR THE CROWN
BOB ODENKIRK BETTER CALL SAUL
AL PACINO HUNTERS
MATTHEW RHYS PERRY MASON
Who Will Win: Josh O’Connor
If Not Then: Matthew Rhys
Who Should Win: Bob Odenkirk
Lowdown: Will the HFPA give “The Crown” three category wins? It’s gonna be close.
BEST TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
EMILY IN PARIS – NETFLIX (Darren Star Productions / Jax Media / MTV Studios)
THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT – HBO MAX (HBO Max / Berlanti Productions / Yes, Norman Productions / Warner Bros. Television)
THE GREAT – HULU (Hulu / Civic Center Media / MRC)
SCHITT’S CREEK – POP TV (Not A Real Company Productions / Canadian Broadcast Company / Pop TV)
TED LASSO – APPLE TV+ (Apple / Doozer Productions / Warner Bros. Television / Universal Television)
Who Will Win: “Schitt’s Creek”
If Not Then: “The Flight Attendant” or “Emily in Paris”
Who Should Win: “The Flight Attendant”
Lowdown: That LA Times story that detailed HFPA’s trip to the “Emily in Paris” set broke before member ballots were due, but probably not early enough to affect enough votes. Of course, “Creek” led all comedy series with the most nominations. They’ve never honored the Emmy champ and this is their last chance to do so.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
LILY COLLINS EMILY IN PARIS
KALEY CUOCO THE FLIGHT ATTENDANT
ELLE FANNING THE GREAT
JANE LEVY ZOEY’S EXTRAORDINARY PLAYLIST
CATHERINE O’HARA SCHITT’S CREEK
Who Will Win: Kaley Cuoco
If Not Then: Lily Collins or Catherine O’Hara
Who Should Win: Kaley Cuoco
Lowdown: Any of the five could take it, but we’ve got a hunch Cuoco’s video crying over the nomination might have put her over the top (she’s also fantastic in the series).
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
DON CHEADLE BLACK MONDAY
NICHOLAS HOULT THE GREAT
EUGENE LEVY SCHITT’S CREEK
JASON SUDEIKIS TED LASSO
RAMY YOUSSEF RAMY
Who Will Win: Nicholas Hoult
If Not Then: Jason Sudeikis
Who Should Win: Any of them
Lowdown: The last actor to repeat in this category was Alec Baldwin in 2010 for “30 Rock.” That knocks out Youssef in our book. Instead, it’s between Hoult and Sudekis and we think the former takes it in a photo finish.
BEST TELEVISION LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
NORMAL PEOPLE – HULU (Hulu / BBC / Element Pictures)
THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT – NETFLIX (Netflix)
SMALL AXE – AMAZON STUDIOS (BBC Studios Americas, Inc / Amazon Studios)
THE UNDOING – HBO (HBO / Made Up Stories / Blossom Films/David E. Kelley Productions)
UNORTHODOX – NETFLIX (Studio Airlift / RealFilm)
Who Will Win: “The Queen’s Gambit”
If Not Then: “Unorthodox”
Who Should Win: “The Queens’ Gambit” or “Small Axe”
Lowdown: Something tells us this is one of the easiest predictions of the night.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
CATE BLANCHETT MRS. AMERICA
DAISY EDGAR-JONES NORMAL PEOPLE
SHIRA HAAS UNORTHODOX
NICOLE KIDMAN THE UNDOING
ANYA TAYLOR-JOY THE QUEEN’S GAMBIT
Who Will Win: Shira Haas
If Not Then: Anya Taylor-Joy
Who Should Win: Shira Haas
Lowdown: Could easily be Taylor-Joy, but our gut says Haas.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LIMITED SERIES, ANTHOLOGY SERIES OR A MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
BRYAN CRANSTON YOUR HONOR
JEFF DANIELS THE COMEY RULE
HUGH GRANT THE UNDOING
ETHAN HAWKE THE GOOD LORD BIRD
MARK RUFFALO I KNOW THIS MUCH IS TRUE
Who Will Win: Bryan Cranston
If Not Then: Mark Ruffalo or Jeff Daniels
Who Should Win: Mark Ruffalo
Lowdown: Cranston has been nominated eight times now and won once. Both Ruffalo and Daniels have five nominations each and never won. We’d love to see the vote totals on this one.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
GILLIAN ANDERSON THE CROWN
HELENA BONHAM CARTER THE CROWN
JULIA GARNER OZARK
ANNIE MURPHY SCHITT’S CREEK
CYNTHIA NIXON RATCHED
Who Will Win: Gillian Anderson
If Not Then: Julia Garner
Who Should Win: Gillian Anderson
Lowdown: If a “The Crown” sweep ends anywhere it might be here.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SUPPORTING ROLE
JOHN BOYEGA SMALL AXE
BRENDAN GLEESON THE COMEY RULE
DANIEL LEVY SCHITT’S CREEK
JIM PARSONS HOLLYWOOD
DONALD SUTHERLAND THE UNDOING
Who Will Win: Daniel Levy, “Schitt’s Creek”
If Not Then: John Boyega, “Small Axe”
Who Should Win: John Boyega, “Small Axe”
Lowdown: I mean, this category is so all over the place it’s comical. In theory, Boyega will take it, but the love of “Schitt’s Creek” is apparent. Almost a flip ’em.
The 78th Golden Globes will air live this Sunday, February 28 at 5 PM PT, 8 PM ET on NBC